It may be hard to imagine, Phillies fans, but it is already late August in Philadelphia. Today’s forecast calls for rainy weather in the 70s across the area. Students are beginning to return to classes from kindergarten through college. Fall is approaching.
With the slow autumnal march beginning, all eyes are beginning to shift to the standings across Major League Baseball. Though the out-of-town scoreboard is no longer a permanent fixture along the right field wall in Citizens Bank Park, fans are watching as games across Major League Baseball tick up on the screen. Every game counts. Every pitch matters.
When asked about his own tendencies to watch the scoreboard, Phillies manager Rob Thomson admits that he’s been doing it for months.
“I scoreboard watching starting the first game of spring,” Thomson said. “It’s just a habit of mine.”
With 35 games to go in the regular season for the Phils, let’s take a look at how things are going for the boys in white with red pinstripes.
T-minus 35
Going into Thursday’s off-day, the Phillies own a 74-53 record. They just wrapped up a three-game sweep of the Seattle Mariners, who stand 1.5 games behind the Houston Astros for the American League West.
One week ago, the team was in the midst of a three-game skid, losing games to the Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals. Since breaking that skid, the Phillies have gone 5-1, scoring runs in the double digits on three occasions.
The streak has increased the teams’ lead over the New York Mets (67-59) to 6.5 games in the National League East. With the unexpected decline of the Atlanta Braves (58-69) this season, the NL East is essentially a two-team race. The Miami Marlins are the next closest team with a 60-67 record.
Of the Fightins’ final 35 games, 20 are within the NL East, including the next 10 games. This weekend’s series against the Nationals will be the final time the two teams meet this season. The Phillies are 6-4 against the Nationals thus far.
The Phillies also have four games remaining against the Braves and six against the Marlins. With a combined 11-6 record against the pair, the Phillies will look to continue their success against the pair this year. The Marlins will kick off the Phillies’ last home stand of the year on September 23-25.
While every game matters, there are seven games in particular that will matter more than most: the Metropolitans. The Phillies travel to Queens for their final series in New York next week. In April, the seasons’ first trip to Queens, the Mets swept the Phillies. With the Mets on a 5-12 skid on the month of August, the Phillies will look to return the favor.
June featured the Phillies’ most recent meeting with the Mets, a three-game set that found the Phils winning two of three. Down 2-4 in the season series, it is important for the team to take at least five of the final seven meetings to secure the tiebreaker should they need it. The Phillies and Mets’ final four games will take place on September 8-11 at Citizens Bank Park. Though the current NL East leaders may not be able to clinch the division by September 11, they can essentially wrap things up if the do well against the Mets.
Currently, the Phillies own a 91.2% chance to win the division per FanGraphs. Any baseball fan knows the stats don’t tell the whole story, however, so it will be up to the Phillies to make that probability a reality.
The bigger picture
Looking beyond the NL East, there is still a lot to be determined for the Phillies. The Milwaukee Brewers (79-48) have the best record in baseball and a 6.0 game lead over the Chicago Cubs (73-54) in the NL Central. They are also five games up on the Phillies for the number one seed in the National League.
Behind the Phillies are the Los Angeles Dodgers (72-55). The greatest team deferred money can buy owns a slim 1.0 game lead over the San Diego Padres (71-56) for the NL West. The Phillies hold a tentative 2.0 game over the Dodgers for the second seed, and a bye for the Wild Card round.
The Phillies will travel to both the Brewers and Dodgers for respective three game series in September. First they will go to Milwaukee September 1-4 and then ship off to Los Angeles September 15-17. Regardless of standings, these two series on the road will provide a real test for the Phillies, who are just over .550 (34-32) on the road this season.
The great playoff watch begins
It’s still a bit too early to get into the specifics of magic numbers, but one thing is for certain in Philadelphia: that feeling of anticipation at the approach of the postseason has begun.
Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-Imagn Images
