WASHINGTON, D.C. – Tonight, Zack Wheeler returns. We’ve hit mid-August, and the Phillies own a precarious 5.0 game lead in the NL East. Despite losing four of their last five, the New York Mets haven’t capitalized, losing nine of their last ten themselves.
With just three runs to speak of over their last four contests, including a spoiled, otherwise promising Jesús Luzardo start against the Nationals yesterday evening, the Phillies’ offense needs a wake-up call.
The Phillies are back at 6:45 p.m., welcomed by temperatures in the high-80s and the swampy conditions the Washington D.C. area is famous for. Wheeler will sweat it out on his continued bid for the NL Cy Young.
Pitching Preview
Zack Wheeler (10-5, 2.68 ERA) vs. MacKenzie Gore (5-12, 4.09 ERA)
MacKenzie Gore‘s ERA may be somewhat misleading. An otherwise sparkling season has been muddied by three recent starts in which he surrendered 22 earned runs across 10 and 2/3 innings. Yes – I’m being selective, but omit those three starts and Gore owns a 2.82 ERA – much more indicative of his 2025 campaign. Ipso facto, we have an ace on our hands.
In two starts this season against Philadelphia, Gore’s responsible for a whopping 14.2 SO/9 and holding Phillies hitters to a .439 OPS. Even with weather that would indicate favorable carry on these balls, it could be a long day for Phillies hitters.
For Wheeler, there has been some concern regarding a dip in velocity on his pitches. His last start saw a 2mph decrease on his fastball and a 2.5mph dip on his sinker. In a performance against the Texas Rangers that was a bit hairy by Wheeler’s standards, he still eked out a win along with seven Ks.
Still, against a Nationals group that’s hit .163 against the Cy Young hopeful in 2025, Wheeler should be able to get back on track as long as he can avoid a couple of landmines.
Nationals veterans Josh Bell and Paul DeJong have been a headache for Wheeler throughout his career. Bell has homered in 8% of his career plate appearances against Wheeler, smacking four homers across 46 plate appearances. DeJong owns a 1.161 OPS across a smaller sample size, but he’s knocked three homers and has at least one RBI in all of his last five games.
Not to mention, this will be the second game since Dylan Crews rejoined the Nationals lineup. The young core of Crews, CJ Abrams, and James Wood will only improve, but we’re worried about the veterans today. It’s easy to roll your eyes at a 49-win Nationals squad, but they’re going to be a pesky out down the stretch of 2025.
Playing small ball with MacKenzie Gore
Gore’s done a decent job of keeping Phillies hitters off the long ball. Nick Castellanos leads the pack with two, but he’s also limping through the last two weeks, hitting just .149 with a 32% strikeout rate. Castellanos hasn’t drawn a walk since July 29th. He’s just not seeing the ball right now.
With that in mind, Trea Turner looks to be a good candidate to expose Gore. Across 25 plate appearances, Turner’s responsible for a 1.025 OPS, including 3 doubles. If you’re looking for a sleeper, Weston Wilson‘s seen success against Gore. He’s reached safely in half of his career at-bats against Gore, including a solo homerun.
Phillies fans have become so accustomed to relying on Kyle Schwarber to open things up, but today, I’d keep an eye on the final third of the batting order to patch together some offense. If we’re making predictions, expect a bevy of strikeouts and some combination of small ball to win the day. Who knows, it feels like Harrison Bader‘s night.
On a personal note, my wife and I welcomed our first child on July 30th (the day after Castellanos’s last drew a walk). Of course, we named her Mackenzie after the Nationals strikeout leader. Kidding, but we’re breaking out the Phillies onesie today.
As always, thank you to Baseball Reference, which makes this research so seamless.
Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
