The Philadelphia Phillies (63-48, — GB) take on the Baltimore Orioles (51-61, 13.5 GB) this week in a much weaker matchup than years past. The Orioles were not supposed to be this bad. Coming off two consecutive playoff appearances—and first-round exits—Baltimore’s young core was projected to carry them to another playoff push, though their pitching might hold them back.
Now, with a team ERA of 4.83 and ERA+ of 83, they find themselves well out of the race, sellers at the deadline. Former Phillie-fan favorite Seranthony Dominguez was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays while Cedric Mullins was sent to the New York Mets, with Ryan O’Hearn and Ramon Laureano shipped to the San Diego Padres.
Nevertheless, young stars like Adley Rutschman, Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson, and Jordan Westburg remain on the roster. There is still a core to build around for the future, despite 2025 becoming a lost cause.
Now, bona fide bottom feeders post-deadline, the Orioles will be glad to miss Phillies aces Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sanchez. If the weekend’s games against the Detroit Tigers were any indication, Baltimore can expect another raucous atmosphere as the dog days of summer kick into gear at Citizens Bank Park.
Game 1: Jesus Luzardo (9-5, 4.31 ERA) vs. Cade Povich (2-5, 5.15 ERA)
Is anyone sure what to make of Jesus Luzardo in 2025?
He seems to put together dominant starts or blowout outings at random. Going back to June 17, in three of his starts, he’s pitched into the seventh inning without surrendering a run; in the other five starts since then, he has an ERA of 8.72 without pitching past the fifth. There’s been much made about Luzardo potentially tipping pitches or having trouble going out of the stretch. Whatever the problem is, perhaps the Pervuian lefty can put things together after seven shutout last week against the Chicago White Sox.
Cade Povich still hasn’t put things together during his second big league season. He finished 2024 with a 5.20 ERA and is the owner of a 5.15 ERA in 2025. His peripherals indicate a modicum of bad luck, but Povich seems more destined for the back of a Major League rotation than the front. A 4.13 FIP is encouraging, but his 6.13 xERA falls near the bottom of the league. Povich’s five-pitch mix includes a four-seamer, curve, sweeper, change-up, and sinker. He tops out at 93 mph.
Game 2: Taijuan Walker (3-5, 3.82 ERA) vs. Dean Kremer (8-7, 4.27 ERA)
Taijuan Walker has done what the Phillies have needed of him this year. Though fans, and probably the front office, would like more out of the $72 million man, Walker has done well to anchor the back of the rotation in 2025. Though he hasn’t pitched deep into games, he hasn’t been a disaster, pitching to a 3.82 ERA over 23 appearances and 12 starts. Walker hasn’t finished the sixth inning since his first start of the season, so don’t expect a deep outing. He’ll likely throw no more than 85 pitches.
Dean Kremer has been a steady presence in the Orioles’ rotation since 2022. On a better pitching staff, he’d be an excellent back-end starter. Unfortunately, he’s been among the best Baltimore has had to offer. Kremer has been remarkably consistent over the past several years, posting an ERA between 4.10 and 4.27 every season since 2023.
Game 3: Ranger Suarez (7-3, 2.15 ERA) vs. Trevor Rogers (4-2, 1.44 ERA)
Like the rest of the Phillies pitchers going this series, Suarez has been up and down over the past month. After an excellent June in which the Venezuelan lefty authored a 1.30 ERA over 41.2 IP, he’s made five starts to the tune of a 4.40 ERA. His last two starts have been more encouraging, though, with 5.2 innings of one-run ball against the New York Yankees and seven innings of three-run ball against the Tigers.
Don’t be fooled. Trevor Rogers has been good this year, but his 1.44 ERA in 56.1 IP is a little misleading. He has a 2.61 FIP and a 3.28 xERA, both of which are very good, but not as good as his traditional stats would suggest. Nevertheless, since July 6, Rogers has surrendered just four earned runs over 34.1 IP. Coming off his best start of the season, an eight-inning complete game outing against the Chicago Cubs, in which he allowed no walks and one run, striking out eight, the Phillies will have a challenge cut out for them in their Wednesday afternoon getaway game.
Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
