Mock Trade: Phillies land Jhoan Duran for pair of Top 100 Prospects

Aidan Miller
Reading Fightin’s Aidan Miller on Tuesday Sept. 3, 2024.
Photo credit: Alec Kostival

The Minnesota Twins are looking to receive a pair of Top 100 prospects as a return for one of their two best late-inning relievers in flamethrowing closer Jhoan Duran and right-handed reliever Griffin Jax. The Phillies are in the market to bolster their bullpen.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote: “Teams adore Joe Ryan, and while he is perhaps the best arm available of any in the mix at the deadline, teams look at what the Twins are asking for to acquire Duran or Jax — at least two top-100-caliber prospects — and aren’t inclined to spend a whole lot of time workshopping deals for a top-10 starter this season with two more years of club control.”

Proposed Trade: Phillies send Aidan Miller #20, Eduardo Tait #59, Twins send Duran

The Phillies have six prospects on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 prospect list. Assuming Andrew Painter (#8) is untouchable and the Phillies ultimately call up Justin Crawford (#45) after the deadline if they do not land an outfield upgrade, Miller and Tait make an intriguing duo to try and lure the pair of relievers from the Twins.

Miller is a shortstop which is always a high value position on the diamond. His value might be slightly lower than in year’s past due to an up-and-down season this year. Still just 21-years-old, the 27th overall pick in the 2023 draft is slashing .222/.340/.366 with a .700 OPS in 74 games. The shortstop has missed some time during the season, but his tools in high school was what drew the Phillies to drafting him.

Viewed as one of the top high school hitters in the 2023 Draft class, Miller climbed his way up three levels in his first full season as a pro in 2024, finishing the year in Double-A Reading. In 102 games he posted an .811 OPS with a .366 on-base percentage. He hit 11 homers and drove in 60 runs while stealing 23 bases. The tools are there and although the heir apparent to Trea Turner, the window for the Phillies to win a title with this core of guys is starting to close. Miller can move the needle for the Twins.

Tait, just 18, was recently promoted to High-A Jersey Shore. The Panama native started the season on fire, slashing .268/.322/.549 with an .871 OPS in April smacking six homers while driving in 18 runs. He kept it going in May with a triple slash line of .281/.330/.438. His OPS took a dip at .768, but he had six doubles, a triple, two homers and 15 RBIs. The backstop cooled off a bit in June, but that did not deter the Phillies from promoting him this week. Overall, he’s hitting .252 with a .759 OPS across 75 games this season.

Ranked as the sixth-best catching prospect in baseball, Tait is a bat first catcher currently, but scouts believe he can improve defensively.

From MLB Pipeline: “While Tait’s overall defensive game is a work in progress, the Phillies think he’s headed in the right direction after showing a lot of improvement behind the dish last year. They think he sets up well and his receiving has gotten better to the point where they think he could be an average defender in the future, pairing nicely with his plus arm. If that keeps trending in that direction, Tait should have no problem being a big league regular catcher in the future.

Why does this deal make sense?

Duran is one of the best relievers in the game with a 1.94 ERA in 46 appearances with 15 saves. He has 51 strikeouts in 46 1/3 innings. With his blistering fastball sitting in triple digits and a splitter at 97.5 mph, he would be an ideal power arm to come out and slam the door shut for the Phillies, a weapon they have been lacking and will be without as it stands with Jose Alvarado being unable to play in the postseason due to his PED suspension.

Currently, Jordan Romano leads the team with eight saves, but he has been inconsistent. Matt Strahm has six but is not a typical closer and then Orion Kerkering has two. Duran would be an instant upgrade and allow Romano, Strahm and Kerkering slot into a more suitable role as bridge arms to get from the starting pitcher to the ninth inning.

It makes sense the Twins are asking for a hefty haul for the two relievers who are under team control until 2027. Last season, the Dodgers traded three of their top five prospects to the Padres for All-Star closer Tanner Scott who was just a rental for the World Series Champions. The trade would instantly improve the Phillies bullpen and a move they should consider if it’s on the table.

Photo credit: Alec kostival