Aside from the Phillies losing nine of their last ten games after a woeful weekend series sweep at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates, another buzzing question getting louder is will the team call up Justin Crawford. Otto Kemp was called up Saturday as Bryce Harper hit the 10-day IL. Could Crawford, the number three prospect in the farm system be next?
Can Crawford be worse than what the Phillies currently have?
Entering Monday, Philadelphia is 4.5 games behind New York after holding a two-game lead over their rivals on May 29. Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas and Weston Wilson along with the majority of the lineup have not been producing at the level needed for the Phillies to help keep pace with the Mets and the rest of the National League.
The platoon in both center field and left field was a known weak spot heading into the season, specifically center field being a position that would provide defense over offense. Crawford could be called up to create a spark for a lineup that looks like it has no answers.
Crawford’s health status is a question in itself. He has missed each of the last three games since being taken out as a precautionary on Thursday night in the fifth inning with an apparent leg injury.
Despite exiting early, Crawford picked up three hits in the 11-4 win pushing his season average to .349 in 52 games, good for the third best contact clip in all of Triple-A. He has a seven-game hitting streak and has picked up a hit in 18 of his last 19 contests. Crawford’s triple slash line of .349/.416/.448 with an .864 OPS in 212 at-bats alone warrants a conversation on whether he is a better option.
Marsh and Rojas are hitting a combined .230 with an OPS of .530 this season. Over the last 28 days, Marsh his hitting .241. Rojas is hitting .156 during that same stretch, but his defense is still extremely valuable.
Wilson has struggled both offensively and defensively slashing .152/.282/.242 with a .524 OPS in 33 at-bats. Throw in Max Kepler, the other half of the platoon in left field hitting .159 with a .649 OPS over his last 63 at-bats, it has not been pretty.
Would Crawford be much worse?
Anticipating the prospect to keep up his torrid pace against MLB pitching would be a lofty expectation. However, it is hard to ignore the numbers the 21-year-old is putting up this season. Seeing if Crawford can put up similar or slightly better numbers compared to the four rotating outfielders is an option worth exploring.
Both Marsh and Rojas have a pair of options left while Wilson has one more remaining, but someone would need to be DFA’d to make room on the Phillies 40-man roster as it currently stands.
Inside the Numbers
Diving deeper into Crawford’s numbers, he is hitting .313 against right-handers (166 ABs) and an impressive .478 against lefties (46 ABs). The 17th overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft said earlier this season he is not phased hitting against southpaws.
One of the biggest concerns for some is his high ground ball rate. Throughout Crawford’s professional career he has posted a 60% or higher ground ball rate in every season aside from his debut in 2022 where he played in just 16 games. It currently sits at 63.6% in Triple-A. However, despite the high rate, he has hit at every level he has been at.
An American League scout said this when asked about any concern for the high ground ball rate.
“None. He needs to keep it on the ground.”
Is he a unicorn? Perhaps. The metrics indicate that his numbers would come down quite a bit hitting against MLB pitching as a lot of his dinks and dunks currently landing for singles would more than likely be snagged by better defenders at the major league level.
The majority of his hits are not what you consider “hard hit” at 95 m.p.h. or higher. He does not have much power with just one homer on the season in Triple-A and 13 in his career.
He would need to rely on what has worked so well for him to this point this season which is putting the ball in play. It may not be blistering line drives, but his seeing-eye singles, high choppers and bloopers down the foul lines have been a recipe for success taking a page out of the book of Hall of Famer Willie Keeler by “hitting ’em where they ain’t.”
Crawford has also shown an ability to spoil off pitches until he can handle one. He leads all of Triple-A with 225 pitches fouled off. He also has posted his third-highest walk rate of his career at 10.4%. He is making pitchers work.
Couple that with his ability to steal bases, currently ranking fourth in all of Triple-A with 23, his style of game is not what most fans are used to with the importance of launch angles, exit velocities and other analytics that are deemed essential metrics in today’s game to identify a player’s ability.
Crawford is a throwback.
The AL scout added: “Crawford is an old school lead off guy. An on-base, run scorer. Probably a nine-hole hitter for the Phillies right now. He’s a plus defender in left field and can play center field, but just OK there. Being only 21 he may get better at center field.”
Some reasons Crawford might stay in Triple-A longer
Aside from needing to be healthy, another key reason is quite simple. Is he really ready? Dave Dombrowski was spotted in Charlotte last week watching the IronPigs so it’s conceivable that he is scouting Crawford to see if the youngster has what it takes to make the jump.
The numbers are undoubtedly eye-popping and with the lack of production coming from two of the three outfield positions certainly makes one daydream about the possibility of a Phillies’ outfield that includes Crawford.
He has only played in 52 games in Triple-A and entered the season as the fifth-youngest player in all of Triple-A. If the Phillies call him up and relegate him to a platoon out in left field or even center field, it defeat the purpose of trying to see if he can be an upgrade. He needs to play every day if he gets the call.
Other factors
The Phillies also could be accounting for the dip in trade value that could certainly happen if Crawford’s struggles are glaring against big league pitching. They are in need of help in other areas including the bullpen and top prospects are always some of the biggest trade chips to get a deal done. Crawford’s value has arguably never been higher.
Service time is also a vital aspect when it comes to calling a prospect up. A player who spends 172 days on an MLB roster or injured list would accumulate one year of service time. Why is this important? Because a player who accrues between three to six years of MLB service time becomes eligible for salary arbitration and after the sixth season is eligible for free agency.
We have seen this over the years with Harper, Kris Bryant and Ronald Acuna Jr. Teams want to maximize service time with prospects, in turn holding a prospect down in the minors until they are unable to rack up the necessary days. This is not to say this is what the Phillies are doing but waiting until June 17th saves them an arbitration year.
Tough decision ahead
It is a fine, yet tough line to toe as a general manager. Making a decision to call up a top prospect while the team is in the worst slump of the season could create the optics that Crawford is being called up to turn things around providing a jolt to an overall stale lineup. On the flip side, it can be an exciting new venture where it not only helps the team’s production, but the Phillies also get to see the fruits of their scouting department’s labor pay off identifying a future keystone for your franchise for years to come.
If the alarming lack of production continues over the next week while Crawford is healthy and keeps raking in Triple-A, Dombrowski and his staff may have no choice but to call Crawford up.
