Sound the alarms! Call the ratings police! Another small media market NBA Finals is upon us! The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers, who boast the two best records in the NBA since the calendar flipped to 2025, will square off in this year’s edition of the NBA Finals.
Over the course of a seven-game series, when becoming incredibly familiar with your opponent, styles oftentimes dictate the fight. That will not be the case in this Finals matchup.
The Thunder and Pacers are two of the younger and faster teams in the NBA. Both teams will guard the entire 94-foot floor after made baskets to get opposing offenses out of rhythm. Both teams play with more intensity and urgency than any of the other teams in the league. They both limit their own team turnovers while simultaneously being great at turning opponent turnovers into points. They are both led by superstar point guards who run polar opposite brands of equal opportunity offense: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander via his commanded gravity and Tyrese Haliburton with court-mapping vision and pinpoint precision that is only rivaled by Nikola Jokic .
Mark Daigneault and Rick Carlisle, two of the savviest coaches in the NBA, have instilled game-wrecking and opponent-breaking habits within their guys that has led their teams to the doorstep of immortality. On their best days, they will cancel each other out. If there is any advantage, it goes to Carlisle for experience. The trump card to that would be that coaches are not the ones playing, and the Thunder have more talent across the board.
In football, they say, “Jimmy’s and Joe’s beat Xs and Os.” That adage rings true for this NBA Finals. In the battle of the ghosts from Paul George‘s past, the ultimate winner will be determined by the personnel.
Ranking the units
4. Pacers defense
The Pacers markedly improved their defense from where it was a year ago, when the Boston Celtics got whatever they wanted en route to sweeping them in the Eastern Conference Finals, but it is still convincingly the worst unit in this NBA Finals.
Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith have become very adept point-of-attack defenders, consistently picking up their assignment at full-court and daring the ball to come out of their hands. That assignment now is going to be the newly crowned MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and it will be fascinating to see the game plan for defending him.
SGA is not going to be held in check on the offensive end of the floor no matter what defensive coverage he sees. It is incumbent on the Pacers to decide whether to let Shai get his points and sell out to defend everyone else or if they want to try and throw the kitchen sink at Shai in an attempt to make every other Thunder beat them. Anywhere wavering in the middle of those two goals and the Pacers will be run off the floor very quickly.
Pascal Siakam has become one of the NBA’s more under-appreciated defenders, and his size and versatility on that end of the floor will be key to defending both Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren. The Pacers did not get to see Holmgren in either matchup this regular season, and while it is safe to assume that the Thunder will roll with their usual starting-five, the Pacers are the type of team that could present problems to two-big lineups, just ask the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Siakam will most assuredly start by covering Chet Holmgren so that Tyrese Haliburton can hide away defending Lu Dort. But that matchup will change if the Thunder have to resort to only playing one big man at a time. Nembhard and Nesmith then will have to take on Shai and one of Cason Wallace or Alex Caruso, and leave Siakam to defend Jalen Williams with the hope that Nesmith is occupying a switchable section of the floor.
Myles Turner is certainly going to hope the Pacers play the Thunder into utilizing one-big lineups. Turner has the defensive range to be able to defend Chet Holmgren as far out as he wants to play and, rarely the case for Turner, has the strength advantage over Holmgren too. Leaving Thomas Bryant and Obi Toppin to come in and bang around with Isaiah Hartenstein is the ideal scenario for Myles Turner to be his most effective self in this series.
It will be interesting to see if and when the Pacers deploy a zone defense. Like the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves that came before them, the Pacers did not run much zone defense throughout the regular season. When Denver tried it out in the conference semifinals, it gave OKC a lot of issues.
By the time Minnesota got to testing their version of a zone out, the Thunder knew what they were looking at and handled their business with ease. All zone defenses have difference practices and intricacies, but Denver gave the Thunder problems with their size and when it came time to play significantly better defenders with the Timberwolves, the Thunder had it all figured out. The Pacers do not have the size of the Nuggets nor the individual defenders that the Wolves do, so make with that what you will.
3. Thunder offense
The Oklahoma City Thunder bring a consistent and balanced offensive approach predicated on the attention that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander demands. SGA slips and slithers to his spots with the basketball unlike anybody else in the NBA. There is no stopping that and there is also no wishing to contain it. He is the best driver and the best over-the-top midrange shot maker in the league to go along with it.
Shai is flanked in the backcourt by Jalen Williams, who really came into his own in the conference finals against Minnesota after struggling against Denver. When Williams’ shot is on in conjunction with SGA’s, the Thunder become nearly impossible to beat.
Chet Holmgren is a young ascending talent who has found a niche as the the tertiary option on offense for this Thunder team. He is good shooter from the outside, which allows SGA to operate in his favorite spots inside the arch. Holmgren is also not afraid to take advantage of size mismatches to get good looks for himself and team.
The Thunder’s offense really only fails on poor shooting nights. Lu Dort is one of the streakier shooters in the league. Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso both have had their moments on offense during these playoffs, but they cannot be counted on to beat the Pacers. Even SGA’s weakest part of his game is three-point shooting, though the Pacers certainly will not be leaving the league MVP open to take jump shots.
The Thunder should not have any issue getting the shots they want in this series. They would just prefer those shots not be forced into such a heavy percentage from behind the arch. As long as SGA is able to shake and wiggle to his patented spots in the post, the Thunder will score early and often.
2. Pacers offense
The Indiana Pacers offense has been humming since the beginning of last season and is the biggest reason for the team making consecutive conference finals and now the NBA Finals. They have so many different ways to attack defenses from all areas of the floor, and it all starts with Tyrese Haliburton.
Whether it be on an inbounds or as soon as he can get the ball off a missed shot, Haliburton’s eyes are up and are scanning for advantages on the floor. The big theme surrounding the Pacers offense is their speed. As quickly as they can touch a live ball they are looking to score it, and the beauty in their approach is that it does not matter who shoots the shot at the end.
The Pacers are mismatch-hunting, quality shot-taking merchants. They will use as little or as much of the shot clock as is necessary to find the greatest look at the basket on each possession. That philosophy is never going to be more important than in this series against this Thunder team.
Tyrese Haliburton’s pass first nature is going to be challenged at some point. He has shown the ability to make defenses pay with off-the-dribble shooting and a nicely developing floater to shoot over the trees. Being aggressive every single game of this series is paramount if he wants any chance of willing the Pacers to victory.
Pascal Siakam is going to have his hands full with the variety of defenders that get sent his way. It is not unrealistic to think that Siakam could get his fair share of possessions matched up against all of Jalen Williams, Lu Dort, Chet Holmgren, and Isaiah Hartenstein. Siakam is going to have see what sticks against each of his matchups and work those edges to keep the Pacers offense churning.
Aaron Nesmith has turned into one of the better three-point shooters off-the-catch in the league. For the second postseason in a row, Andrew Nembhard has also become a very reliable shooter from distance. Myles Turner is one of the better spot-up shooting big men in the NBA. As long as the Pacers feel comfortable getting into the tentacles of OKC’s defense that has thwarted all comers beforehand, the open shots they are so good at generating will be there, and now more than ever they have to make them.
1. Thunder Defense
With a bullet.
The Thunder have the best defense in the NBA and it is not particularly close. They have one of the best defenses of this century, maybe only rivaled in aura by the 2004 Detroit Pistons. The Thunder’s defense is the most surefire and inevitable force in the league because it relies on nothing more than brute physicality and and unrelenting effort.
It starts with the front court of Lu Dort, Chet Holmgren, and Isaiah Hartenstein. Dort will start off by guarding the best offensive initiator on the other team from the perimeter. He is an expert screen navigator and when he meets his assignment coming downhill, his ox-like strength stops them dead in their tracks. Chet Holmgren has the length and shot-blocking ability to roam and play incredible help defense when collapsing. And Isaiah Hartenstein is a massive entity standing in your way of depositing the basketball in the bucket.
Try and kick the ball out, and you have newly minted NBA all-defensive second-teamer, Jalen Williams, ready to closeout on shooters. The weakest link to the Thunder defense is SGA, but he is still a very good defender in his own right.
The worst part for the Pacers is that the problem does not get any better when the Thunder start bringing in their reserves. Tyrese Haliburton is going to have a steady diet of Lu Dort and Jalen Williams in his business just to see Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso standing across from him after a quick water break. For a Pacers offense that is heavily reliant on Haliburton’s genius-level creation, you could not construct a better defensive lineup to mitigate his strengths.
Where the Pacers might be able to find a softer spot in the Thunder’s defense is at the wings and corners. If Haliburton and Pascal Siakam can finagle their way into the teeth of the Thunder defense, OKC will collapse to the paint. Quick and timely passes to willing off-the-catch shooters in the corners is a way for the Pacers to rack up points. They have the guys to take and make big shots.
X-Factors in the series
Aaron Nesmith’s health
Aaron Nesmith injured his ankle in the Eastern Conference Finals against the New York Knicks and while he did not miss a game, he was clearly hampered in the closeout game so much so that Andrew Nembhard essentially had to guard Jalen Brunson the entire game. To Nembhard’s credit, he finally figured out the Brunson matchup that has tortured him for two years now, but the Pacers are going to need all of Nesmith on the defensive end to contain both SGA and Jalen Williams.
Nesmith’s health is also key to the Pacers offense. Nesmith shot 43.1-percent from distance in the regular season and that has upticked to 50.0-percent in the playoffs. Without the proper spring and bounce in his ankle, he will not have the elevation to get his preferred shots off and also will be a step slow on backdoor cuts to the basket. Saying the Pacers are screwed without a healthy Aaron Nesmith would be an understatement.
Thunders two-big lineups
As mentioned previously, Chet Holmgren did not play in either game against the Pacers in the regular season and it did not matter at all. The Pacers offense has shown time and time again to be too fast, convertible, and malleable for lineups with a center who wants to live in the paint. The difference with the Thunder is that everyone else is on a string collapsing to the paint to take away driving lanes. Even if Myles Turner is spaced out behind the arch and brings Hartenstein with him, the gaps inside close quicker against OKC than any other team in the league.
If the Thunder do play a heavy dose of Holmgren and Hartenstein together, the Pacers relentless mismatch hunting will find the answers they are looking for. Pascal Siakam has had great success attacking Hartenstein dating back to last year’s playoff series when Hartenstein was on the Knicks. Chet Holmgren is about as favorable a physical matchup for Myles Turner as there is in the league. Turner’s prowess as a legit stretch-five will force Holmgren to guard him all the way out to the three-point line, which opens up ample space inside the arch for Siakam to pick Hartenstein apart. Turner can also choose to attack the strength mismatch off the dribble if he so chooses.
If the Pacers offense for the first time in seemingly the last two years does not have an answer for the Thunder’s preferred lineup allocations, this series will not last long.
Tyrese Haliburton’s off-ball effectiveness
The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to do everything in their power to get the basketball out of Tyrese Haliburton’s hands, especially in the half-court. It is imperative that Tyrese Haliburton not only accept that, but invite it.
Haliburton’s most ineffective games are where he gets discouraged early because his normally automatic offense generator blew a fuse. But a blown fuse is not the end of the machine, it is just a part that needs replaced, and Haliburton has the skill and ability to fire that engine back up.
The best way for Hali to impact the game off the ball is to stay one pass away from whomever has the ball and navigate screens to catch an incoming pass with momentum headed towards the basket. That will trigger the instinctual nature of the Thunder to collapse hard to the paint, leaving Indiana’s array of shooters wide open.
Tyrese Haliburton should want to play off-ball for the sole purpose of getting back on the ball. He will not win every battle with Lu Dort trailing him, but it may be one of the best chances they have at cracking the Thunder’s armor.
How do the Pacers lose?
There are a lot of ways for the Pacers to lose this series but the fastest way is for them to give into the talent disparity, which they have proven they will not do. It is human nature to let go of the rope when the mountain is too tall to climb, but there has not been an insurmountable peak yet for these Pacers.
Down seven points in the final minute against Milwaukee in the first round? Won the game. Down seven points in the final minute against Cleveland in the conference semifinals? Won the game. Down nine points in the final minute against New York in the conference finals in the most famous arena in the world? Got it to overtime and won the game.
The Thunder pose a completely different test on both ends of the floor than any of the teams the Pacers have played so far. And while the Pacers may be too young to not know what they do not know, the Thunder are even younger. The Pacers cannot let their foot off the gas whether they are up by 20 or down by 20.
How do the Pacers win?
If the Pacers want any chance of winning this series, it starts with splitting the first two games in OKC. The Thunder have lost 18 times all year including the playoffs. They are not going to lose four times in five games if they head to Indiana with a 2-0 lead.
The Pacers need to buy into their never say die mindset more than they ever have before. Basketball games do not stop when other teams take big leads; they stop when the clock hits zero in the fourth quarter. The Pacers know that better than anyone and they live by it. If they can bring the series home at a tie, anything can happen.
There is no such thing as playing with house money, but if it were a thing, the Pacers are playing with it. Nobody expects them to win. They are used to being doubted, but aside from this upcoming series and last year’s Boston series, they have every right to feel disrespected for being doubted. That motivation can carry a team a long way. The stakes are at their very highest but the Pacers have every reason to play a little looser than the Thunder.
How do the Thunder lose?
The Thunder lose by succumbing to the ultimate weight of expectations. They are the heaviest favorite in the Finals since the 2018 Warriors. They won 68 regular season games and have home court advantage for a reason. As mentioned ad nauseam, they have the league’s MVP and the best player in this series by a substantial margin.
But they are not immune to getting tight. In the fourth quarter of game five of the conference semifinals against the Nuggets, trailing at home, if it were not for a lights-out shooting clinic from Lu Dort, the Thunder may not even find themselves in the Finals. In game seven of that series, also at home, the Thunder could only muster 14 points in the first 10 minutes of play before, of course, proceeding the beat the brakes off of Denver and send them packing until next year.
It is very unlikely that the Pacers have the secret sauce to beat the Thunder. OKC is going to have to royally beat themselves if they are going to lose this series, and we have seen that happen before. In 2011, while not the massive betting favorite that the Thunder are, the Miami Heat were largely considered the superior team to the Dallas Mavericks. The expectations and the pursuit of greatness all came crashing down on LeBron James in that playoff series as he would have to wait one more year to finally get his first trophy.
Instead, he had to watch Rick Carlisle and the Mavericks reap the benefits of LeBron’s biggest playoff failure. It would be poetic, and feather in the cap of a hall of fame coaching career, if the same Rick Carlisle did it again opposite the 2024-25 Thunder.
How do the Thunder win?
The Thunder win by trusting everything that got them to this point. They have the greatest defensive foundation the NBA has seen in over a decade. They have an unassailable and inevitable MVP and perfect fitting costars around him. They have a rockstar young head coach. The formula for the Thunder is pretty simple. Play Thunder basketball and hoist that first trophy.
Prediction
The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to handily beat the Indiana Pacers in five games to win the franchise’s first ever Larry O’Brien trophy since moving to OKC ahead of the 2008-09 season. A culmination of a season that saw an all-time assembly of talent thoroughly dominate the other 29 teams in the league for nine months straight.
Validation for who should now be the consensus best GM in the league, Sam Presti. A legend-cementing double-down for SGA taking home MVP and a Finals trophy that will probably come with the Finals MVP as well. No more talk of them being too young to accomplish anything, soon it will be are teams too old to even consider lacing up the sneakers when they see OKC on the schedule on a Tuesday in January.
Heading into the latter half of the 2020’s, they represent the best chance that any team has had since Kevin Durant‘s Warriors to be a true dynasty. At the very least they should be the first defending champion since those Warriors to make it back to the conference finals.
