Yesterday, the Phillies (17-14) dropped the series finale against the Nationals(14-18) – narrowly missing out on a sweep and their fifth straight win. The recent success could not have come at a better time, with the team looking sloppy ever since they took two-of-three from the reigning World Series Champion Dodgers just a month ago.
Philadelphia hosts the Arizona Diamondbacks (17-14), who are fourth in the National League West – a division that is looking like the toughest in baseball in the early going. The D-backs not only have the same record as the Phillies, but they have had a similar go of things lately – winners of their last series over the NL East leading New York Mets, but that victory came on the heels of dropping three straight series and 7-of-10 games. A rematch of the NLCS from two seasons ago, both teams are looking to prove their superiority and show they belong in the World Series contending conversation all season long.
A month into the season and these clubs are neck-and-neck. In fact, they’ve been that way for years. Despite Arizona having a losing record for two of the past four seasons, they hold a one-game lead in the head-to-head vs. Philadelphia since 2021. Both teams will likely get a huge boost this weekend with the Phillies getting Ranger Suárez back to start on Sunday and Arizona’s Ketel Marte returning to action after being on the injured list since April 4. Can Arizona return home riding high? Or will Philly finish off a quick home stand with their third straight series win to get right before going on the road? Let’s break down the pitching matchups and players to watch for this weekend’s series against the Diamondbacks.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks: Pitching Matchups
Merrill Kelly (3-1, 4.41 ERA) vs. Jesús Luzardo (3-0, 1.73 ERA)
Kelly is no stranger to pitching in Philadelphia. Including the post-season, he has six starts against the club – half of which came at Citizens Bank Park, and two of which came in the 2023 NLCS. His regular season 2.92 ERA against the Phillies is strong, and his one regular season start at CBP was a dominant one – he held Phillies hitters to just three hits over 7.2 innings, striking out five back in 2019. In those playoff starts, however, he has a 4.22 ERA after Jekyll and Hyde-esque performances.
In Game 2, Phillies hitters teed off on Kelly, hitting three home runs en route to a 10-0 victory. Game 6 was different, as he only surrendered one run with eight Ks over five strong frames. We all know how the game and the series went.
Trea Turner seems to have Kelly’s number, going 11-for-26 (.393) with three doubles and a homer. If you take his numbers out, however, the rest of the Phillies offense looks anemic against the right-hander. A slashline of .175/.258/.400 is not enough to keep pace with a strong Arizona squad. Alec Bohm has found some success in just seven ABs, and J.T. Realmuto has four hits (three for extra-bases) in his 15 trips against Kelly. Schwarber may need to find that post-season magic against him for Philly to come away with a victory.
Luzardo does not have good numbers against Arizona – plain and simple. A 5.09 ERA in four career starts is worrisome, but when looking at the current crop of D-Backs – a different picture is painted. Arizona hitters are slashing .308/.379/.308 against Jesús in what amount to barely more than one game vs. the entire roster. The average might be high, but all eight hits surrendered were singles.
With only three walks added in, he has truly limited damage despite allowing base runners. If he returns, Marte is worth watching closely as he is 3-for-6 with a double and two walks against Luzardo. Josh Naylor is worrisome as the power hitter is already 2-for-2 against Philly’s left-hander, but this season Luzardo looks different. Friday will tell us how well he can handle a team full of guys that have seen him well in limited exposure.
Brandon Pfaadt (8-1, 2.78 ERA) vs. Aaron Nola (0-5, 5.40 ERA)
Pfaadt is in just his third major league season, and the 26-year old is finally looking as good as he did in the 2023 NLCS against Philly. This will be his first regular season appearance vs. the Phillies, but he faced the club in the playoffs – once at home and once on the road. While only going 9.2 innings over his two starts, his 1.86 ERA and .182/.229/.333 slashline allowed over that period made him look like a world beater. He held Phillies hitters to just four hits over those games. Max Kepler is the only player to face him during the regular season – he is 1-for-3 with a single.
While his outing were short back then, he’s a different monster – winning five straight starts and going at least six innings in five of six of his appearances thus far in 2025. Kyle Schwarber is hitting behind Bryce Harper for protection in the middle of the lineup, but he is 0-4 with four strikeouts against the young right-hander. Harper only has one K, but is also hitless in four ABs vs. Pfaadt. Saturday could be a very tough matchup for Philly.
Nola also looks opposite of what is expected from the Phillies longest tenured player. In just the second of a seven-year, $172 million contract – Nola is off to one of, if not the worst start of his career. While the current offense is hitting a modest .230/.260/.390 against Philly’s mild-mannered right-hander, that’s not counting Marte who is 5-for-13 against Nola with a double, triple, and two homers. Aaron also has a horrible track record against Arizona (7.31 ERA across 6 career reg. season starts). He will need to figure out a way to limit the long ball if he wants to secure his first victory of the season.
Eduardo Rodriguez (1-3, 6.06 ERA) vs. Ranger Suárez (Season Debut)
Rodriguez is off to a rocky start to the season, and pitching in Philadelphia has been a mixed bag for the veteran starter. In two starts at CBP, he threw to drastically different results – first in 2019 was a 6.2 IP outing, allowing four hits and a run while striking out 12. Second was in 2021, a four inning drudging where he allowed four runs on five hits, three walks, and a homer.
He has a 3.06 ERA overall against the Phillies in three starts since 2015 while with the Boston Red Sox. Despite those numbers, he has handled the current Phillies offense with relative ease. a .224/.274/.431 slash line that is greatly enhanced by the impressive number that newest Phillies outfielder, Max Kepler, has put up against the left-hander.
Kepler is the man to watch – his 6-for-17 line with a double and two home runs is very impressive, especially for being on the wrong end of the split. One Phillies hitter definitely isn’t happy to see Rodriguez – Nick Castellanos is just 1-for-15 with six strikeouts against Sunday’s starter. The one hit was a home run, but he clearly will need to tighten up if he wants to change his fortunes against Rodriguez.
Suárez is making his season debut, after pending the last month on the injured list with lower back stiffness – an injury that hampered him during last summer. While he is eager to get back on the mound, this might not be the best scenario for him as the D-Backs have hit him well. Albeit, not for power, but their .281 average and .343 on-base percentage against him (not including Marte) in their careers could certainly be cause for a shorter outing in Ranger’s first of 2025. Add in the likely returning Marte’s 8-for-21 to the mix and Ranger’s in danger of getting off to a rough start.
Overall, these are two teams that seem destined to be in the thick of things when it comes to the National League playoff race all season. Philadelphia has the benefit of being closer to the top of their division, at least on paper, than Arizona does. Don’t hinge your hopes for the club in 2025 on this weekend. Rest assured that it is still early, and that when they meet again in September, the intensity will be even higher. For now, it’s all about winning series and even with some challenges, the Phillies are set up to do so before hitting the road early next week.
Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images
