Not many things are going the Phillies’ way of late.
They just got swept by the New York Mets. Cristopher Sanchez had an injury scare. Aaron Nola doesn’t look right. The bullpen has been downright concerning. On top of all, the Phillies’ offense hasn’t slugged or succeeded with runners in scoring position.
Whatever positivity the Eagles gave the city after their Super Bowl win has largely dried up.
One of the few bright spots has come from an unlikely source. Centerfielder Johan Rojas has been one of the few Phillies coming through at the plate. In his last 8 games, Rojas is 9/25, a .360 average. In his 16 games this season, the young centerfielder has a .317 average and a 106 OPS+.
While the numbers look good, is Rojas taking the next step, or is it some good fortune fueling his offense?
Is Rojas Getting Lucky?
One of every statistician’s favorite measurements of luck is BAbip, or batting average on balls in play. An average BAbip would be around .300. Rojas is currently sitting at a .464 mark. That’s .54 higher than when he hit .302 in his 2023 debut.
Statcast also would say the third-year outfielder is getting lucky by its xBA stat. Expected batting average is determined by exit velocity and launch angle on balls put in play. Currently, he has a .197 xBA.
When breaking it down between types of pitches faced, the difference is even more noticeable. Rojas has hit .389 against fastballs but has a .240 xBA. Against offspeed pitches, he’s hit .375 but with an xBA of .208.
Taking the Next Step
Not all the underlying stats are against Rojas.
BAbip and xBA don’t take his top-grade speed into account. Rojas has averaged a sprint speed of 28.9 ft per second or 19.7 MPH. He’s in the 93rd percentile of all major leaguers according to Statcast. Rojas can outrun some normally routine ground balls.
He has also been hitting the ball noticeably harder. Last season, Rojas sat in the bottom 6% of the league in hard-hit% (% of balls hit 95 MPH+) at just 27.4%. This season, he has a 41.4% hard-hit%. That’s the same rate as AL Rookie of the Year favorite Kristian Campbell.
The 24-year-old has almost doubled his walk rate this season, going from 3.6% to 6.7%. This change was most noticeable when Rojas walked with the bases loaded against the Braves.
Ultimately, it’s still April. Making any conclusions about a player now is a fallacy of the highest order. Rojas’ flags aren’t all green or red. There are a couple of encouraging signs that he could be a Ben Revere type with better defense. At worst, he is making the most of Brandon Marsh‘s absence.
Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images
