After a winning, yet frustrating, weekend – the Phillies (13-9) are hitting the road, heading up I-95 to New York for their first matchup of 2025 against the Mets (15-7). Philly won seven of 13 against their NL East rivals in the regular season last year, and four of seven at Citi Field. However, the season didn’t end strong against their opponents up north, as New York knocked Philadelphia out of the playoffs in the NLDS, winning three of four and taking both contests in New York.
The Mets are off to a hot start thanks to Pete Alonso, who almost left in free agency this off-season, and a surprisingly strong pitching staff that leads the majors in starter’s ERA, overall ERA, and is third in bullpen ERA 22 games into the season. The Phillies are just two games behind, and while there have been struggles – they’ve been led by their starting pitching, especially newcomer Jesús Luzardo, and their offensive stars in Nick Castellanos, Bryce Harper, and Kyle Schwarber.
It is still early, but with less matchups against your division than ever before – these are key games that can impact a club’s tiebreakers come playoff time. New York wants to prove that last year wasn’t a fluke, while Philly wants redemption. Who proves to be the kings of the East in the early going? Let’s break it down.
Phillies vs Mets Pitching Matchups
Aaron Nola (0-4, 6.65 ERA) vs. Tylor Megill (2-2, 1.40 ERA)
The first game of the series sees Nola toe the rubber, trying to avoid getting half way to double-digit losses – a number he’s only reached twice in his career – in his fifth start of the season. This is hardly the start that Philadelphia’s front office envisioned to start year two of a massive seven-year, $172 million deal.
While he is traditionally a slow starter, this is easily the second-worst start to a season in Nola’s career. In 2019, Nola also surrendered 16 earned runs (17 total) through his first four starts, but he went four or less innings in two of those outings, leaving him with a 7.45 ERA through four starts. The only reason that season’s start could be considered better is his first start of the year was a one-run victory over six strong innings against the Atlanta Braves.
His last outing forced him to be brutally honest about his performance. The veteran starter had a strong response about his command and the start overall: “Yeah, it drives me crazy. I mean, it’s unacceptable.“
Last season, Nola pitched to mixed results against the Mets. He went 1-1 with a 4.05 ERA against them in 2024, but his lone start in Citi Field was a memorable one: A complete game shutout where he surrendered just four hits while striking out eight. While his career numbers against the division rival are solid, there are some spots to worry about:
Nola has shut down Francisco Lindor with relative ease – a .194 batting average across 27 plate appearances. While it’s great to retire the lead-off hitter in the lineup, the next two men pose a large challenge for the Phillies right-hander. Juan Soto has an alarming .472 on-base percentage against Nola in his career, and his hit three home runs against him.
The next man up has dominated Nola in their careers – Pete Alonso. How’s a .327/.386/.731 slash line with three double and six home runs for what is supposed to be an advantage for the Phillies right-hander. A few of the Mets younger hitters have had success in limited exposure, and veteran Starling Marte has a good track record vs. Nola to extend their lineup.
Tylor Megill, despite his traditional position as a mid-to-back end of the rotation arm, has pitched well against the Phillies to the tune of a 3-1 record and 2.51 ERA in his career. In 92 combined plate appearances,
Phillies hitters have a .202/.272/.286 slash, with just one home run off the bat of J.T. Realmuto. The middle of Philly’s lineup, Harper and Schwarber, have just three hits in 22 ABs combined, despite having the lefty-righty matchup in their favor. Alec Bohm and Castellanos are the only players with decent numbers against Megill, so manager Rob Thomson may have to rely on them to get out to a lead in the series.
Cristopher Sánchez (2-0, 2.96 ERA) vs. Griffin Canning (2-1, 3.43 ERA)
Similar to his entire career, Sánchez has pitched well overall against the Mets but there is a clear difference when he appears on the road vs. at home. His 3.06 ERA during his breakout campaign last season looked so effective in large part due to his stellar one run, seven inning outing at home. In his two starts at Citi Field, the lanky lefty gave up five earned runs, surrendered 10 hits, and handed out eight free passes over 10.2 innings to the tune of a 4.22 ERA.
Mets hitters that seem to set the table have had the most success off Sánchez – Lindor, Marte, and Nimmo are all hitting over .300 against him. Soto has just seven ABs vs. the left-hander, and surprisingly no walks. Overall, Mets hitters are dealing with a different beast in this year’s Sánchez. If he can pitch close to his dominant performance against the Giants last week, New York will have a tough time stringing hits together to get past Philly’s best southpaw.
Canning, on the other hand, seems to be drinking whatever’s in the starting pitcher’s proverbial Kool-Aid up in New York. The Mets right-hander only has one career start against the Phillies – a five inning, four run outing where Phillies hitters stacked three hits on top of five walks to cut his night short just last season when Canning was a member of the Angels. This season, Canning has a solid 3.43 ERA over his four starts – a number he only reached once over a four start stretch last season. Even more impressive is his 1.80 ERA at Citi Field in his first two home starts with his new club.
After spending his career in the A.L. West before 2025, no one on the Phillies has reached even 10 plate appearances against him, so their limited success has no guarantee to continue. One thing to watch closely is the more patient, less swing-happy approach Philly has brought to the plate in the early going. Canning has walked Phillies hitter four times, while forcing them to strikeout just twice. He has also limited damage when facing let-handed hitters, which Philly has plenty of. Through his four starts, LHB are hitting .219 with a .536 OPS – remarkable numbers when compared to his career .736 OPS surrendered to that side.
Zack Wheeler (2-1, 3.73 ERA) vs. David Peterson (1-1, 3.27 ERA)
Since leaving New York for Philadelphia, Wheeler has really taken it to his former club. Over any potential issues off the field, Wheeler is locked in pitching against the Mets – especially at his old home ballpark. In seven starts at Citi Field as a member of the Phillies, the ace has a 3.32 ERA with 47 strikeouts to just nine walks! Despite that success, current Mets hitters have faired respectably against Wheels.
A.259/.325/.405 slash line with 31.67% of their hits going for extra bases. Alonso is hitting .270 against his former teammate, but with no home runs from the power hitter. Juan Soto, however, has faced him the most and popper a home run three times against his long time division rival. Add in 13 walks and Soto has a .406 OBP against Philly’s top arm. Wheeler will look to regain his form against his former club, hopefully with the series already locked up.
On the other side of things, David Peterson looked like he might be a guy who never quite figured it out for New York – until last season. His 10-3 record and 2.90 ERA were key for an upstart Mets squad that found itself in the NLCS despite finishing third in the division. His results against Phillies hitters are a mix bag. The left-hander has handled some stars with ease – Realmuto, Schwarber, and Trea Turner are each hitting below .200 in 20+ plate appearances against the 29-year-old.
The rest of the heart of the lineup has picked up that slack, however. Alec Bohm is 7-for 23 (.304 AVG) with two double and two home runs against Peterson. Castellanos is 6-for-12 with a 1.045 OPS against the lefty. Harper has only caught Peterson for one homer, but his .381/.480/.571 slash line across 25 palte appearances leads me to believe he may see next-to-nothing to hit in the series finale.
Other Notes:
New York has the best starting pitcher ERA this season with a 2.42 – almost a half run better than second place Texas. Philly isn’t far behind, coming in at No. 6 with a 3.46 ERA. Both offenses rank around the middle of the pack in most categories, with the Phillies really only standing out in OPS. Phillies have a .736 OPS, good for No. 8 in MLB – compared to the No. 19 ranked Mets sitting with a .699 OPS.
With both teams basically evenly matched in most areas, this series feels like it will come down to who can rely on the starters most, or from an offense perspective – who can get to the bullpen quicker. The Mets 2.27 ERA and 1.00 WHIP are good for No. 2 and No. 3 in the majors, respectively. Philly’s ERA is second also – from the bottom of the league rankings.
The 5.81 bullpen ERA is the 29th worst in the league, only ranking ahead of the Nationals. Philly’s pen is giving up nearly 1.5 home runs per nine innings (1.42 HR/9), good for 27th in MLB. The team has played in some tight games, and with the club trying to limit over-exposing their rotation early to keep them healthy, they have forced themselves to push the bullpen into high leverage situations more often than they would like.
All the struggles aside, Philadelphia is only one game worse than they were at this point in 2024 and they went on to win 95 games and their division. Stamping out the Mets fire up in New York this week would be a great way to of reverse some of the negative feelings around this club in the early going.
Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images
