At what point will the Sixers say enough is enough?
Fifty-four games through the NBA season, and the Philadelphia 76ers sit 14 games under .500 with a record of 20-34. After entering the season with championship-sized aspirations, the Sixers sit 11th in the Eastern Conference and have lost five straight games.
The situation in Philadelphia is not improving despite the organization continually preaching optimism. On Friday, Feb. 7, team president Daryl Morey voiced support for the team’s 2024-2025 outlook. Liberty Ballers’ Bryan Toporek summarized the events to come over the next few days.
Following these events, the Sixers faced the Brooklyn Nets in a matchup without Maxey and Embiid. With an opportunity to take center stage, Paul George scored just two points.
Five straight abysmal losses that simply cannot happen, considering both the teams they faced and who suited up for the Sixers.
Still, the team has approached their time after the All-Star break with the mentality that they have an opportunity to compete. Sitting just 1.5 games behind the Chicago Bulls for the 10th seed, the final spot in the play-in tournament, Philadelphia earnestly believes in their chances despite the massive disappointment the team has seen this season.
Are the Sixers right to be so hopeful? Or should they shut down their wounded stars, lick their wounds, and come back stronger next season?
Why the Sixers should shut it down
The easiest place to begin this argument is by acknowledging that the team is 14 games under .500 with just 28 games left in the season. The odds that the Sixers could suddenly turn the tides of their season to the point that they are in a comfortable position relative to their playoff standing is highly unlikely, to say the least.
The Sixers are currently 8.5 games back of the sixth-seed Detroit Pistons. The seventh through tenth seed is far easier to fathom, but that means an appearance in the NBA tournament. Not only would Philadelphia’s playoff hopes still be in question, but they would have to win one or possibly two play-in games, depending on their seeding, to simply make the postseason.
Even if the Sixers make it out of the play-in, they will likely face the Cleveland Cavaliers or, in the best-case scenario, the Boston Celtics.
Philadelphia’s hopes of overcoming either of those teams are about as slim as they come. The very notion that Cleveland wouldn’t want to face a healthy Philadelphia squad is inherently erroneous, as there is virtually no such thing as a “healthy Philadelphia squad.”
Joel Embiid is less than two weeks from stating that he believes he needs additional surgery on his knee. Paul George has consistently mentioned the struggles associated with wearing the brace on his fifth finger. It’s not outrageous to suggest that either surgery on the torn ligament, or at the very least extended rest, is in his best interest.
This is not even to mention the potential to claim a top pick in the NBA draft. The San Antonio Spurs already did this one with David Robinson, drafting Tim Duncan, and potentially have the opportunity once again after shutting down Victor Wembanyama — who is dealing with a blood clot in his shoulder; may he recover quickly.
Philadelphia, meanwhile, has the very same opportunity and a four-game lead on San Antonio in the reverse standings. The Sixers are currently a coinflip away from having their draft pick pre-lottery — the selection is top six protected.
Should the Sixers finish the season as the reverse sixth seed, they would have a 43.4% chance of retaining their pick with a 34.8% chance of moving into the top four. While not thrilling odds, this is in addition to the ability to rest their stars.
The Sixers are also just three and a half games behind the Toronto Raptors for the fifth pick. Considering Toronto’s deadline additions and the Sixers’ potential injury subtractions, the Raptors could easily make up that difference, giving the Sixers a 63.9% chance of retaining their pick and a 42.1% chance of moving into the top four.
While that all may sound enticing to some, any advantage may ultimately go unheeded as Philadelphia’s front office is hell-bent on making one last postseason push. But is there a logical argument for this strategy, or is it just blind hope?
Why they should hold out hope
Despite being 14 games under .500, the Sixers are, again, just 1.5 games behind the Chicago Bulls for the tenth seed, which means a spot in the play-in tournament. The Bulls (1.5 games up), the Heat (5.5 games up), and the Hawks (5.5 games up) are all certainly within reach of a capable team. All three teams are also drastically different after the trade deadline and are arguably less talented at that.
According to Tankathon, Philadelphia also has the fourth-easiest remaining schedule — based on opponent record, which surely gives the Sixers’ front office some confidence heading into this final stretch of the season.
With a small string of runs, the Sixers could quickly find themselves not just in the play-in tournament but rising up the ranks of the tournament teams. The odds of this are bolstered by the team being arguably as healthy as they have been all season. Not to mention that some of Daryl Morey’s recent additions are already proving their worth, though it remains to be seen how they all fit together.
Quentin Grimes has provided a bit of everything since arriving in Philadelphia, averaging 16.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.8 assists. Though his shooting numbers have been below expectations to this point, Grimes is already pushing for a potential starting spot.
Jared Butler has already seen his contract elevated to a standard NBA deal after averaging 10.0 points and 4.7 assists acting as the Sixers’ primary reserve guard. Then there’s the most recent signing of Lonnie Walker, yet to be formally announced, all of which are set to give the Sixers a splash of youthful energy, something the team desperately needs.
Finally, there is an aspect out of the Sixers’ control: the competition’s performance. The Chicago Bulls are in the midst of a four-game losing streak and are expected to actively tank after trading away Zach LaVine and seemingly attempting to retain their first-round pick, which they only keep if it’s in the top 10.
The Miami Heat, also navigating through a four-game losing streak, are attempting to find their way now that they’re on the other side of the Jimmy Butler trade. Andrew Wiggins‘s fit is a bit clunky, although the sample size is extremely small, but the starting lineup of Herro, Davion Mitchell, Wiggins, Bam Adebayo, and rookie big man Kel’el Ware has two-way potential, the Heat at their worst look like an island of misfit toys.
Then there’s the Atlanta Hawks. Like the Heat, they sit 5.5 games above the Sixers in the standings. Atlanta sold high on D’Andre Hunter at the trade deadline and moved off of Bogdan Bogdanovich, drastically changing their look, not unlike Miami. The youth movement is in full effect in Atlanta. That doesn’t guarantee they are disinterested in competing, as their unprotected first-round pick is owned by the San Antonio Spurs, but their youth and lack of chemistry may lead to slide relative to the Sixers’ hopeful performance.
Finally, there’s the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks are 9.5 games above the Sixers, but they’re not without their warts. The deadline swap of Khris Middleton for Kyle Kuzma has gone as poorly as many predicted, and now the team has lost Bobby Portis for 25 of the final 29 games this season. With the seventh most difficult schedule remaining, a clear lack of depth, and both their stars dealing with nagging injuries, then the possibility of a fall-off remains.
What’s the right answer?
Unfortunately, there’s no definitive way to say without hindsight. If the Sixers tank and land Cooper Flagg in the draft, obviously, it was the right move. That is, assuming that the team is unable to turn their season around. If somehow, some way, the Sixers managed to win the championship, then pushing was obviously the right answer. Neither of these options is likely — one being significantly less likely than the other, but what about the options in between?
The Sixers could easily tank and, after the lottery, find themselves without a pick despite tanking. Joel Embiid and Paul George may also never return to their past level of play, even if the team tanks. Conversely, it’s not unreasonable to suggest that the Sixers could still fail to make the postseason, let alone make any noise.
Looking at every potential reality, not unlike Doctor Strange, tanking is clearly in the best interest of the team long-term, though for a front office member like Daryl Morey, the motivation is clearly there to show short-term success, especially after the ownership group’s previous failed playoff push this past NFL season.
