The Super Bowl is just days away, with Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts set to clash in another title bout for the Lombard Trophy. Sportsbooks expect a nailbiter between the Eagles and Chiefs, with Kansas City priced as merely 1.5-point favorites to beat the Eagles. On the money line, the Chiefs are -122 and the Eagles +102. Needless to say, these are razor-thin Super Bowl odds.
In terms of sports wagering, it’s the biggest day of the year — and it just got a lot bigger as the prediction market platform Kalshi enters the game. Kalshi, too, has Super Bowl odds which are available in all 50 states, a great alternative for sports bettors looking to wager on the Super Bowl in states that have not passed legal sports betting.
So far, the new platform has generated more than $3 million in Super Bowl “trades.”
The added competition is also great for those who already have access to Super Bowl odds in legal sports betting states, as Kalshi provides arguably the best Eagles vs. Chiefs odds, along with some unique flexibility provided by prediction markets.
If you’re already sold and ready to start trading, sign up for Kalshi here and get a $10 bonus.
If you want to know more, keep reading as I break down everything you need to know about Kalshi, prediction markets, and current Eagles vs. Chiefs odds.
Best Eagles vs. Chiefs Super Bowl Odds
Kalshi’s unique approach allows users to trade “event contracts” on outcomes like the Super Bowl winner, halftime show performances, and even which companies will air commercials. The platform’s pricing reacts live to users buying and selling, the YES/NO contracts that trade between 1¢ and 99¢, reflecting the implied probability of an event occurring. At the end of the event, in this case, Super Bowl LIX, each contract pays rewards the user $1.
For example, as of today, the Chiefs are trading at 52¢ (52% implied win probability), while the Eagles are at 49¢ (49% implied win probability).
How does that convert to implied odds? Chiefs -109 and Eagles +104. Kalshi actually allows you to customize how prices are displayed in their sports markets, so if you’re used to the American Odds format, you can use those too.
If you compare these prices to the best Super Bowl Odds across sportsbooks, they are around -115 and +100, respectively.
Regardless of the team you want to wager on (my money is on the Eagles), or where you’re wagering, Kalshi provides the best odds.
So, why the superior prices?
Kalshi’s platform removes the house edge, instead allowing users to treat their wager like a ‘stock’. You can buy and sell at any point during the game on what is a paper-to-peer platform, flipping the script on the traditional sportsbook model.
One important caveat: Kalshi charges a small 1¢ fee to non-market makers, but users can avoid fees by creating a “resting limit order.”
How to Place Your First Kalshi Trade on the Super Bowl
Though the setup is a little different than what you’ll find at most sportsbooks, placing a trade on Kalshi is very easy, even for newcomers. Here’s how to get started:
- Sign up and claim your bonus
Create an account on Kalshi’s platform (using this link to secure your $10 bonus). Registration is quick, but you’ll need to verify your identity to comply with financial regulations, which will only take a few minutes. - Fund your account
You can deposit funds via debit card, bank transfer, Apple Pay, or Crypto. It is worth noting that there’s a 2% fee on deposits made with debit cards and Apple Pay.
There’s no minimum deposit, but ensure you have enough to cover your trades (remember: each contract costs between 1¢ and 99¢, with payouts fixed at $1 per contract if your prediction is correct).
- Navigate to the Super Bowl market
Search for “Super Bowl” in the platform’s marketplace search bar at the top of the page. You’ll find a few markets, including Kansas City vs. Philadelphia Football contracts: “Chiefs to Win” (YES/NO) and “Eagles to Win” (YES/NO). - Choose your position
- If you believe the Chiefs will win, buy YES contracts for the Chiefs (or NO contracts for the Eagles).
- If you’re backing the Eagles, buy YES contracts for the Eagles (or NO contracts for the Chiefs).
You can choose to “Buy in contracts” or “Buy in dollars,” whichever you prefer. The latter, for what it’s worth, makes for a more sportsbook-like user experience.
Remember: to avoid Kalshi’s 1% commission, you can set a resting limit order which will be in place until other users fill the order. This makes you a market maker. More on that below.
- Set your price
Kalshi’s dynamic pricing lets you specify the maximum price you’re willing to pay per contract. For example:
- If the Chiefs are trading at 52¢ (52% implied probability), you could place a limit order at 50¢ to save on fees and secure better odds, the same as you would on a stock. If the market dips to your price, your trade executes.
- Avoid the 1¢ taker fee by acting as a “maker” (posting a limit order that others match).
However, in this particular market, you’re probably best setting a limit order closer to the current market price. Prices are unlikely to fluctuate more than 1-2 cents before kickoff due to there being so much liquidity.
- Confirm and execute
Whether you’re submitting a resting limit order or filling orders, make sure to review your order details, including the total cost (number of contracts × price per contract) and potential payout ($1 per contract if correct). After that, all that’s left to do is to set your trade. - Monitor your trades
Unlike traditional sportsbooks, Kalshi allows you to sell contracts before the Super Bowl ends. If the Eagles take a lead and their contract price jumps to 70¢, you could cash out early for a profit—even before the game concludes.
Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images/File Photo
