The wait is almost over. Super Bowl LIX is just around the corner with a rematch from Super Bowl LVII as the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs (15-2 in regular season) and the #2 seed in the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles (14-3 regular season) renew battle on Sunday in New Orleans. Of course, we know how the first meeting panned out, with the Chiefs hitting a game-winning field goal with just eight seconds remaining on the clock and a failed Hail Mary by the Eagles couldn’t answer the prayers from the fans in the City of Brotherly Love as Kansas City went on to beat the Eagles 38-35.
That was two years ago. This is now. Two different teams, which we took a deeper dive into on the Eagles’ side earlier this week, but with the same goal in mind. Hoisting that coveted Lombardi Trophy. So, let’s take a look at the five biggest matchups that can potentially determine the outcome of this game.
Jalen Hurts vs. Patrick Mahomes
Let’s get the most obvious one out of the way. Every Super Bowl the battle of the quarterbacks will be compared, analyzed and detailed to the nth degree. These two QBs put on a clinic two years ago with Hurts actually outperforming Mahomes statistically, putting together one of the best offensive showings in Super Bowl history from the position, throwing for 304 yards, completing 71% of his passes and throwing for a touchdown while running for 70 yards on 15 carries and scoring three more times on the ground. It still wasn’t good enough to get the victory in his Super Bowl debut.
Now with a chip on his shoulder as his apparent “Prove Them Wrong” tour culminates with the biggest game of the season, he seems more determined than ever to produce once again in the game’s biggest stage. Statistically, Hurts isn’t going to blow anyone away this season and that’s because of the well-balanced offensive attack the Eagles have used all season, including the playoffs, with Saquon Barkley taking over in the run game.
What Hurts done an exceptional job at is protecting the football. He has not turned the ball over at all in the playoffs and has not thrown an interception over his last nine games. He will need to play another clean game of football to avoid giving the Chiefs any extra possessions and to win in whatever fashion they can, as the Eagles’ quarterback has alluded to numerous times, he doesn’t care what it looks like, as long as the team wins.
In the case of Mahomes, all he and the Chiefs have done is win. Since taking over at quarterback, Mahomes has led the Chiefs to three consecutive Super Bowls and seven straight AFC Championship games thanks to another impressive season in terms of wins and losses. He and the Chiefs are on the cusp of becoming the first NFL team in the Super Bowl Era to three-peat.
Yet, this is a far different looking Kansas City offense. Mahomes specifically has not had his “Mahomes-esque” type season. He missed making the Pro Bowl for the first time in his career and his 26 regular season touchdown passes are tied for the fewest in a season for him since his second season in the league as a starter. He’s also thrown for the fewest yards in a season this year to go along with the fourth-most interceptions. His 245 yards per game through the air is the lowest average of his career.
You have to account for his magician like ways to extend drives with his ability to squirm out of trouble, his ability to use his legs to pick up first downs and more. However, if there’s any year to beat Mahomes, it could be this one.
Saquon Barkley vs. Chiefs Rush Defense
Fun fact, this is the first time Barkley will go against the Chiefs in his career. Another fun fact, if you haven’t heard by now, Sunday is Barkley’s birthday. The Giants and Chiefs met back in 2021, but Barkley did not play in that game. This makes for a thrilling showdown due to the fact that Chiefs longtime defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and the Chiefs defense has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this season and furthermore, has not allowed a running back to reach the century mark in any playoff game since he took over in 2019.
Kansas City was solid against the rush this season, finishing inside the top 10 allowing 4.1 yards per carry and 101.8 yards per game. During the stretch for the longtime defensive coordinator, he’s implemented a game plan that has slowed down the likes of Derrick Henry when he was a wrecking ball in Tennessee, holding him to under 70 yards after leading the league in rushing, and more recently, kept Christian McCaffrey in check in Super Bowl LVIII with the 49ers star running back accounting for 80 yards on 20 touches.
Barkley, who might arguably go down as the best free agent signing of all-time in Eagles’ history and perhaps NFL history if he carries the team on his back once again, has been dynamite in the playoffs and all season with surpassing the 100-yard mark the name of his game this season. The soon-to-be 27-year-old has rushed for an average of 147.3 yards per playoff game, including a 205-yard performance in the snowstorm game against Los Angeles in the Divisional Round. Meanwhile, he reached 100-yards or more in 11 regular season games this season.
The Eagles must feed Barkley the ball, even if somehow, the Chiefs find a way to limit his production early. They can’t have repeat of two years ago where they abandoned the running game because the moment was too big for Miles Sanders. Fortunately, for the Eagles, they have made a serious upgrade at the position this year.
DeVonta Smith vs. Chiefs’ Secondary
“Skinny Batman” has lived in the shadows of A.J. Brown, a.k.a. “Swole Batman” for the majority of the season. However, Smith has a chance to shine in what has been a favorable matchup for him over his career. Against Kansas City, Smith has hauled in 20 catches for 321 yards. His 107 yards per game in the three games he’s faced Kansas City is the most in his career against a team he’s faced multiple times.
He led the Eagles in receiving in the first meeting between these two teams in the Super Bowl and returns to his home state of Louisiana to play for a championship. Smith, who plays a good portion of the snaps out of the slot when Brown and tight end Dallas Goedert is both on the field has a matchup that can be an X-factor for Philadelphia. Kansas City’s secondary has done a solid job shutting down team’s top wideouts. However, according to Sharp Football Analysis, they’ve struggled to defend slot wideouts with 52% of receptions allowed on the season coming from the slot wide receivers.
Expect Kellen Moore to draw up some creative ways to get Smith the ball for some big chunk plays in this one.
Eagles’ Red Zone Defense vs. Kansas City’s Red Zone Defense
This is another big matchup to keep an eye on. As mentioned earlier, the Chiefs offense isn’t as explosive as in years past, relying on methodically moving the ball down the field. However, when they do that and get into the red zone, they tend to struggle to cap off drives with six points. In the regular season, Kansas City ranked 22nd (53.95%) in Red Zone Scoring Percentage when it came to scoring just touchdowns. For comparison, the Eagles ranked 12th (58.02%).
Defensively, the Eagles ranked 5th in the NFL, giving up touchdowns in the redzone just 48.3% of the time. In the playoffs, the Chiefs have picked up their efficiency a bit in this category, scoring touchdowns on 6 of their 11 red zone trips in their two games against Houston and Buffalo, highlighted by a 4-for-6 conversion rate in the AFC Championship Game. Conversely, the Eagles have allowed four touchdowns on nine opponent trips (44%) to the red zone in the playoffs, which is actually a tick below their season average.
The Eagles’ defense has been one of their strong suits this season especially limiting the success of opponents once they get inside the 20-yard line. They will need to continue to do that on Sunday.
Nick Sirianni vs. Andy Reid
The Eagles’ head coach gets a second crack at the future Hall of Famer and former Eagles’ coach who helped get the franchise back to perennial playoff status in the early 2000s and of course, leading Philadelphia to a Super Bowl appearance in 2004. He is the winningest coach in both Eagles’ and Chiefs’ history and has won 15 division titles, five conference titles and his three Super Bowls all coming with Kansas City. He is no stranger to winning this big game since taking over the sideline in Kansas City.
One of the most notable numbers that is attached to Reid is his ability to win with extra time to prepare, which is the case with the Super Bowl, getting essentially two weeks. Reid is 33-7 all-time coming off a bye week which is the best record in league history. A shoe-in Hall of Famer and arguably only behind Bill Belichick for the greatest coach over the last three decades, he will be ready for the chess match that will take place.
Despite that, don’t count out Sirianni. He navigated choppy waters to start the season, has the love and respect from his players and it’s spoken and shown daily. Sirianni has a 48-20 overall record which gives him a higher winning percentage (.706) than Reid (.651) during his tenure with the Eagles, although Reid coached a total of 464 games with Philadelphia, including playoffs, to Sirianni’s 76. Sirianni though has led the Eagles to a pair of Super Bowls in just three years’ time and said he learned from the first trip in Arizona and took notes on what he would do differently in his next chance at winning the Super Bowl.
Well, that time has come. Sirianni will put his notes to use and rely on this beyond talented roster to try and bring back a Lombardi Trophy to a city that is just as determined as the players in the locker room are that they will accomplish the goal. If they do, Sirianni will continue to build his legacy as a coach in Philadelphia, Broad Street will be rocking, and another parade will be mapped out to the Art Museum steps.
Kickoff for Super Bowl LIX is scheduled to kickoff at 6:30 p.m. Sunday, February 9th in New Orleans, Louisiana.
Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
