With the Eagles and Chiefs set to square off in just a few days, interest in the game from a wagering perspective has never been higher. Thanks to the emergence of prediction markets, there’s a new way to get in on the Super Bowl LIX action — which is available in California and everywhere else in the U.S.
That means, for the first time ever, bettors in California, Texas, and other states that have not yet legalized online sports betting can make real-money Super Bowl predictions due to this loophole that makes prediction markets accessible everywhere since they are federally regulated.
As such, it’s time to look at some winning Super Bowl strategies for these new platforms.
First, let’s start with the basics. You can sign up to the Kalshi platform here.
What is Kalshi? A Super Bowl Betting Alternative in California
Kalshi isn’t a sports betting app, but it does allow you to trade on the Super Bowl, pricing the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles similar to stock options.
Here’s how it works.
You trade on the teams by buying “contracts,” and each contract is priced somewhere between 0.01¢ and 0.99¢, for a maximum payout of $1.00 per contract. If this sounds confusing, don’t worry. They coincide with betting odds very closely.
In the case of the Super Bowl, the Chiefs are priced at 0.53¢ (53% to win) while the Eagles are priced at 48¢ (48% to win). You will be asked to buy YES or NO contracts on the respective teams. For example:
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LIX?
- YES – 53¢
- NO – 48¢
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl LIX?
- YES – 48¢
- NO – 53¢
This means if you’re looking to buy 10 contracts on Eagles, it will cost $4.80 (before including Kalshi’s 0.01¢ fee per contract) for a potential payout of $10, netting $5.20 in profit.
Adding fees, those numbers change to $4.88 and $5.12. Needless to say, Kalshi’s Super Bowl prices are extremely competitive and actually often better than those at sportsbooks.
Moreover, users love the added flexibility of prediction markets that they won’t find from traditional sportsbooks. This flexibility also the use of more Super Bowl strategies.
In addition to the Super Bowl winner, Eagles fans across the nation can trade money on seemingly an endless amount of future events, including politics, weather, and pop culture.
Speaking of pop culture and the Super Bowl, there are a handful of, what sports bettors call, Super Bowl props. On Kalshi, users can predict which companies will run ads during the Super Bowl, who will be part of Kendrick Lamar’s half-time show, and which songs the Grammy winner will play.
You will only find legal markets like these on Kalshi.
How is Kalshi legal in California?
Trading on the Super Bowl with a prediction market isn’t considered betting or gambling on the Super Bowl. It’s kind of confusing, and certainly a fuzzy line, but Kalshi is federally regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Exchange Commission (CFTC), and instead off odds, they present users with “event contracts” which are traded between those wagering.
Consider this: only 1-3% of sports bettors are profitable long-term, and sportsbooks have a tendency of banning those who win a little too much. A November report showed that nearly 13% of users on Polymarket — a prediction market that is not accessible in the U.S. — were profitable.
Meanwhile, Kalshi’s federal status means state gambling restrictions do not apply to them, which is why you can risk and hopefully win real money on the Super Bowl in California.
States Where You Can Predict the Eagles vs Chiefs Super Bowl LIX Matchup for the First Time:
• Alabama
• Alaska
• California
• Georgia
• Hawaii
• Texas
• Utah
• Idaho
• Minnesota
• Missouri
• Oklahoma
Super Bowl Strategies
Buy low, sell high
This is a pretty basic trading strategy and one I love to use on prediction markets related to sports futures.
But because the Super Bowl market is extremely efficient with only subtle price changes, it will be more difficult to use between now and kickoff. In other words, it’s highly unlikely we’ll see the price change more than 1-2 cents for the Chiefs and Eagles.
With that said, users can cash in their position anytime before the game ends, giving bullish Eagles fans a chance to secure their profits while sportsbooks often don’t.
Additionally, there should be a new Super Bowl market that will launch right after the game for next season. Let’s say the Birds win and you want to roll your winnings onto the chance of a back-to-back, you can do that with Kalshi.
In-game trading
In-game trading will be volatile, and there will likely be overreactions, especially early in the game. Consider betting on the underdog as the odds move early.
React to the news
For the Super Bowl props specifically, if you keep a laptop nearby, you can react quickly to events and “buy the news” while watching the Super Bowl in preparations for commercials and halftime.
There won’t be a ton of liquidity, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be an edge. For example, if Open AI airs a Super Bowl ad, you might be able to quickly buy shares of ‘YES’ in Kalshi’s Super Bowl commercial market. Even if they are expensive at 98¢, you can still make some quick, easy money.
The Super Bowl kicks off at 3:30 p.m. PT on Feb. 9 and will air on FOX. Click here to sign up and start trading on Kalshi with a $10 bonus.
Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
