Heading into the playoffs, not many would have expected that the NFC Championship game would be played at Lincoln Financial Field. Even more couldn’t have predicted the matchup. That’s why the old saying “Any given Sunday” rings true as the #2 seed Philadelphia Eagles host the #6 seeded Washington Commanders with a trip to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans on the line this Sunday at Lincoln Financial Field.
Here at PSN we broke down the two regular season matchups between these NFC East rivals and what could potentially be taken away from those games and also the brief playoff history between these two franchises. To use a baseball term, the rubber match between these two teams could not be bigger.
The Eagles have made the NFC Championship game for the second time in three seasons and ninth time in franchise history while this is Washington’s first appearance since 1991 and sixth overall. At the time of writing, the Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite.
Let’s take a look at the five key matchups to watch in this one.
Jayden Daniels vs. Eagles’ Pass Defense
This is going to be arguably the determining factor in this game. Jayden Daniels is on the inside track to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and has looked anything but a rookie. He has shown the moment is not too big for him and he has not made the typical rookie mistakes you’d see, most notably protecting the football.
Daniels and the Commanders are coming off a surprising road upset against the top-seeded Detroit Lions last week where the rookie went threw for 299 yards and two touchdowns in the win. Daniels was successful against a banged-up Lions defense who tried to blitz the dual-threat quarterback and that backfired numerous times on Detroit.
The Eagles may try to strategically pressure Daniels at times during the game, but they will need to stay in their rush lanes and not allow Daniels to break out of the contain and use his legs to make big plays and extend drives. Last week, Daniels ran for 51 yards on 16 carries in the victory and in the regular season, ranked second only behind Lamar Jackson in rushing yards by a quarterback with 891 yards on the ground.
Expect the Eagles’ defense to stick to their recipe and rely on their strong cornerback play, with Quinyon Mitchell expected to play in the game (shoulder) on Sunday and once again line up against the Commanders’ top wideout in Terry McLaurin along with Cooper DeJean and Darius “Big Play” Slay.
The Eagles have had decent success against Daniels in the two games, picking off the rookie three times in the two regular season meetings while holding him under 200 yards passing in their game in Philadelphia back in November. However, since that meeting, Daniels has thrived and has been magnificent in debut season.
Quinyon Mitchell vs. Terry McLaurin
We follow up from the first matchup to the second one that should be another to watch. Mitchell, along with DeJean are finalists for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year and for good reason. In this particular matchup, Mitchell simply shutdown McLaurin, who was one of the top wide receivers all season.
Per NextGen Stats, in that first game against the Commanders, Mitchell lined up against McLaurin on 20 of 25 routes including 19 of 20 out wide. Mitchell was not targeted a single time when lined up against McLaurin. The top target for the Commanders was held to just one catch for 10 yards in that game on two targets. In the second meeting, McLaurin faired a bit better, hauling in five catches for 60 yards and a touchdown which he ran past Mitchell on a deep route, snapping Toldeo product’s streak of the most plays in the league at cornerback without allowing a score.
According to The 33rd Team, McLaurin ran 21 routes against Mitchell and despite being targeted just three times, he had two receptions for 42 yards and a touchdown.
Expect another fun showdown between the rookie and veteran come Sunday.
Jalen Carter vs. Trent Scott
The Commanders picked up the shocking win last week, but it did come at a price. Their starting right guard Sam Cosmi tore his ACL in the victory. Now Jalen Carter, who has been sensational this season, had his way against Cosmi in the second battle between the two teams in the regular season. Now, Carter will be expected to be up against Trent Scott.
Scott, in his seventh season out of Grambling, was thrusted into the right guard position in the Divisional Round, a position he had not played consistently since 2021 when he played in 14 games and made five starts at right guard for Carolina. Scott is primarily a tackle, playing 73 of his 88 career games as a tackle.
Carter has been a menace and arguably the reason why the Eagles held on to the thrilling win over the Rams last week thanks to his forced fumble but more importantly, the enormous sack on the Rams’ final drive as they were threatening to score to tie the game up.
This is a matchup Carter should feast on and will need to take advantage of to continue to be a game changer.
Jalen Hurts vs. Washington Pass Rush
For another week, a lot was made of the numbers Jalen Hurts put up in the Divisional Round win. More importantly, it appeared that Hurts injured his knee during the game, seen gingerly walking off the field at one point and finishing the game with a brace on his knee. He was sacked five times, a rather high number for the mobile quarterback and top offensive line. Some of it had to do with passing concepts and the inability for the wideouts to break free while Hurts also tends to hold the ball longer to try and keep plays alive.
This week, expect the Commanders to force Hurts to test his knee. There was no additional information regarding what Hurts exactly suffered, but he was in clear discomfort. The Commanders have the fifth-highest Blitz%, blitzing at a 31.5% clip on drop backs and rank 15th in QB Hurry% at 7.9%. Hurts has completed 64.4% of his passes this season when blitzed on 172 drop backs with eight touchdowns and one interception.
There’s no doubt Hurts is as tough as they come, and he will play through any type of nagging injury. It hasn’t been pretty numbers wise for Hurts, but he 4-0 in home playoff games in his career. A fifth win would send him and the Eagles to a Super Bowl for the second time in three years.
Eagles’ Red Zone Defense vs. Commanders’ Red Zone Offense
The Eagles have the top-ranked scoring defense thanks to Vic Fangio and according to PSN’s Anthony DiBona, that bodes well for the Eagles historically. Due in large part to their top ranking is their success in keeping opponents out of the end zone once they get into the redzone. The Eagles finished tied for 5th in Redzone Percentage in the regular season, allowing opponents to score a touchdown on 50% of trips to the redzone (24-for-48).
In the Wild Card round, the Eagles held the Packers 1-for-3 in red zone trips, allowing a one-yard touchdown to running back Josh Jacobs. Last week, the Rams cashed in twice inside the red zone on a pair of 4-yard passing touchdowns from Matthew Stafford.
The Commanders have had success against the Eagles in the red zone, going 5-for-6 in the two regular season games and will look to keep the momentum of going a perfect 4-for-4 in the win against the Lions into this one.
It’s essentially a coin-flip on if the Eagles’ defense will allow an opposing touchdown inside the 20. The crowd will do everything in its power to become the 12th man come Sunday.
The Eagles and Commanders kickoff at 3 p.m. on Sunday at Lincoln Financial Field. The winner will take on the winner between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs of the AFC in Super Bowl LIX on Sunday February 9th.
Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
