The Philadelphia Eagles will be facing the Washington Commanders on Sunday on what will be the sixth time they have hosted an NFC Championship game since the 2002 season and their eighth appearance. Just an incredible run of success for the organization.
The two matchups between these teams earlier this season were split and somewhat mirrored one another. The Eagles had a strong fourth quarter, scoring 20 points, to win in the first game, and the Commanders scored 22 in the fourth quarter of the second game to pull out a last-second win over the Eagles.
Those are interesting stats, but there is a lot more to get into this week, Inside the Numbers.
Saquon Barkley:
Saquon Barkley only rushed for 120+ yards ten times in six seasons with the NY Giants; he has done that ten times with the Eagles this season. It is hard for me to determine which is more impressive: ten times behind that putrid O-line in New York all of those years or ten times behind the Stoutland U-trained O-line in Philly in one season. But I digress.
Staying with Saquon, he has rushed for 324 yards (it could have been close to 400 had he not slid down against the Packers to end the game) in his first two playoff games with the Eagles. As a team, the Birds average 227 yards per game on the ground this postseason.
Versus the Commanders earlier this season, Saquon carried the ball 15 times for 56 yards in the first half of their first matchup. You could see the effects of having to tackle Barkley start to wear down the Commander’s defense as early as the 3rd quarter. Barkley had 11 second-half carries for 90 yards and finished the game with 26 carries for 146 yards and 2 touchdowns.
In the second game, Saquon rushed for 150 yards on 29 carries and 2 TDs. One hundred twenty-two of those yards were in the first half. The loss of Jalen Hurts was not felt just in the passing game but also in the rushing. Mobile QBs are the cheat code for RB rushing yards in today’s NFL, and the Eagle’s running attack suffered without him.
Barkley has 296 rushing yards and four touchdowns this season versus the Commanders and was almost unstoppable when Jalen Hurts was in the game. If it’s not broken, dont fix it. Run, Saquon, Run!
Jalen Hurts:
Jalen has 13 total touchdowns and only two interceptions in his seven postseason starts. He has not committed a turnover this postseason. This is a hallmark of the four remaining QBs playing the championship game: no turnovers this postseason.
In the Eagles’ four postseason wins with Jalen Hurts he has thrown for:
154 yards versus the Giants in January 2023, with 3 total touchdowns.
121 yards versus the San Francisco Forty-Niners with 1 touchdown.
131 yards versus Green Bay with 2 touchdowns.
128 yards versus the Rams with 1 touchdown.
In the three losses:
258 yards versus Tampa in his NFL playoff debut with 2 interceptions and a fumble.
304 yards versus Kansas City in the Super Bowl, with a fumble.
250 yards versus Tampa in January of 2024.
So a quick recap. 155 passing yards or less in a game has equated to a win, over 200 passing yards has resulted in a loss.
It almost seems as if your team is behind; you throw the ball for more yards. Also, protecting the football is paramount. Trusting your defense is key!
Defense:
The Eagle’s defense will need to be disciplined on Sunday and play to the standard they have the last 16 weeks.
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The first time the Eagles faced Washington this season, Vic Fangio’s defense had Commanders star receiver Terry McLaurin in a blender all game. He did not have a single target in the first half. Washington’s number one receiver ran 20 routes versus Qunyon Mitchell and was not targeted once. If the corners play tight coverage on all of the short routes and do not allow explosive plays to Terry McClaurin or Dyami Brown, it will be a long day for Jayden Daniels and the Commander offense.
The Philly linebacking duo of Zack Baun and Oren Burks will also need to aggressively cover Commander running back Austin Ekeler. He was Jayden’s favorite target in the first game, and he completed 8 of 9 of those targets for 89 yards. The Eagles will need to smother him on the short routes and eliminate that safety valve.
The defensive line will likely be less aggressive this weekend than they were in the second matchup. In their loss, the defense uncharacteristically blitzed too often and allowed too many explosive plays. The defense struggled in the red zone, which was unusual for them this season. They had only allowed a touchdown on 48% of those possessions. They gave up 3 of 4 versus the Commanders. Jayden Daniels’ mobility played a large role. He takes off more than anyone in the NFL and has more designed runs than any QB, including Jalen Hurts. Containing him is vital.
The Eagles blitzed Jayden Daniels on 38% of his dropbacks; they had only averaged 18% during the season. This seemed to be an attempt to make something happen defensively due to the loss of Jalen Hurts. The defense created five turnovers! They also gave up 36 points. Relying on pressure from their front four as opposed to blitzing often will be key in stopping the Commander’s offensive attack. Speaking of pressure.
Per PFF, Nolan Smith has 11 pressures, the third most in the post-season. Jalen Carter has 12, tied for first. The Eagles also have speed off the Edge with dynamic rookie Jaylx Hunt, who has emerged this postseason and, as a former DB, has the speed to run down Jayden Daniels.
Nolan Smith will be a key player to watch in this game. Jayden Daniels favors running to his side of the field when he takes. Nolan already contains the Edge better than any other D line on the team, he will need to contain Jayden just as well.
The Eagles have seven sacks in their two postseason games, and Nolan Smith has 3 and counting. He is currently tied for second with Derrick Burgess and only a half-sack behind Haason Reddick for the most in a single Eagles postseason.
Since the bye, the Eagle’s defense has averaged allowing 15.9 points per game, which is good for a plus 188 points differential against their opponents. As a team, they have held the ball nearly 5 minutes longer per game over this span. They are also 15–1 since then, with their only loss coming at the hands of the Commanders on the last play of the game and missing Jalen Hurts for three-fourths of the contest.
The Eagle’s defense will need to be physically and mentally prepared to stay on the field when the Commanders are driving, as they do not allow substitutions. They ran no-huddle more than any team in the league and will look to tire the Eagles early to take advantage of them late.
Final thoughts:
If the Eagles play their style of football, which is controlling the clock and time of possession, running Saquon, not putting the ball in harm’s way on passing plays, and playing stingy defense, they will be heading to their second Super Bowl in three years. The only team capable of stopping the Birds is themselves.
Eagles 30 Commanders 16
Fly Eagles Fly, on the road to Victory!
As always, Thank you for reading.
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Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
