The Philadelphia Eagles play the Commanders at Lincoln Financial Field this Sunday for the right to advance to the Super Bowl. Everything they have worked for all year to get to New Orleans to defeat the AFC for another Lombardi Trophy comes down to this.
The Eagles have some questions but also a lot of answers. The formula this season has been to run Saquon, play lockdown defense, and protect the ball. Of the four remaining teams, not having any turnovers this postseason is the common denominator.
Philadelphia will need contributions from the passing game and AJ, DeVonta, Goedert, and others to create separation against a sticky Washington defensive backfield.
The Eagles have two rookie corners, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, who are playing well and transforming the defense.
The Commanders have rookie Mike Sainristil, who has done the same for them.
The Eagles have a hidden ace
Philadelphia will also need big games from the defensive line to control Jayden Daniels by staying in their lanes and not allowing him to run free when plays break down and when he has nobody to throw for and attempts to extend plays. Luckily for the Birds, they have a few guys for the job.
Per PFF, Nolan Smith has 11 pressures, the third most in the post-season. Jalen Carter has 12, tied for first. The Eagles have more speed off the Edge with dynamic rookie Jaylx Hunt, who has emerged this postseason and, as a former DB, has the speed to run down Jayden Daniels.
To know the past is to change the future. If the Eagles learn from their mistakes from the first two games, they will win. They are a more physical and talented team and will be playing in front of the most raucous fans in the NFL.
What can the Eagles learn from their first two matchups?
Game One:
Most fans know the Eagles split with the Commanders this season, but many do not remember it took a fourth-quarter comeback win to get the job done. They also may have forgotten that Hurts was checked for a concussion in that game.
In the first matchup, Philadelphia struggled early, as they have all season, and did not score first-quarter points, which included a Jake Elliott field goal miss.
Two drives ended; one by an uncharacteristic drop by Smitty and the other by a holding penalty on Becton. The defense played well in the first half to keep it close, only one wide receiver for the Commanders had a reception, and it was 4 yards.
Jalen Hurts was ineffective for most of the first half and was checked for a concussion as the half ended. He was 10/19 for 101 yards and sacked twice in the first half, but he went 8 of 9 for 120 yards in the second half, avoided pressure, and committed no turnovers. This is a hallmark of the four QBs playing the championship game: no turnovers this postseason.
The offense got going when Saquon Barkley did, he carried the ball 15 times for 56 yards in the first half. You could see the effects of having to tackle Barkley start to wear down the Commander’s defense as early as the 3rd quarter. Barkley had 11 second-half carries for 90 yards, including a 23-yard TD run with 4:58 remaining in the game and a 39-yard TD with 4:38 left following a Commander turnover. Saquon also added a 43-yard reception on a 3rd and 6 in the 3rd quarter.
The Eagle’s offensive line dominated the Commanders in the second half, and the Eagles ran the ball for 228 yards.
The end of the game came down to the Commanders going for it on 4th down in the 4th quarter instead of kicking a 44-yard goal to take a one-point lead. With that decision, Dan Quinn out Sirianni’d the Eagles Head Coach. The Birds won, but Washington showed everyone that they were a legit threat in the NFC and were not afraid to go for it on fourth down. The Commanders ended the season third in the NFL in 4th down conversions, the Eagles were 4th.
This was the genesis of fans beginning to worry about Jake Elliott. He missed his first and second field goal attempts on the night.
Vic Fangio’s defense had Commanders star receiver Terry McLaurin in a blender all game. He did not have a single target in the first half. Washington’s number one receiver ran 20 routes versus Qunyon Mitchell and was not targeted once.
Eagles edge rusher Nolan Smith was starting to emerge as their best pass-rushing threat with a sack of Jayden Daniels late in the game, and Jalen Carter played every defensive snap.
Reed Blankenship called the game with his interception with less than 5 minutes left.
The second matchup would play out much differently.
Game Two:
The Eagles started the game off hot by finally scoring a first-possession, first-quarter touchdown en route to 21 first-quarter points but lost starting Quarterback Jalen Hurts early in the game due to a concussion from a questionable hit by Frankie Luvuu, and the passing attack struggled mightily for much of the rest of the game.
The Eagles had 263 yards at halftime and only 75 in the second half. The loss of Jalen Hurts was not just in the passing game but also in the rushing. Mobile QBs are the cheat code for RB rushing yards in today’s NFL. If teams are playing two high safeties, it opens up the run game, and you have an additional player in the box.
The Eagles, led by Jalen Hurts, had exposed this mismatch all season long. If the opposing edge rusher crashes on the RB, the play is modified for a QB keeper. This aspect of their offense was sorely missed. Saquon rushed for 150 yards on 29 carries and 2 TDs in the game. One hundred twenty-two of those yards were in the first half.
The defense uncharacteristically blitzed too often and allowed too many explosive plays. The defense struggled in the red zone, which is unusual for them this season. They had only allowed a touchdown on 48% of those possessions. They gave up 3 of 4 versus the Commanders. Jayden Daniels’ mobility played a large role.
Stopping QBs who are twitchy in the pocket continues to be the Achilles heel of this defense. They have struggled with QBs who move around the pocket all season.
The Eagles blitzed 38% of Jayden Daniels dropbacks; they had only averaged 18% during the season. This seemed to be an attempt to make something happen defensively. The defense created five turnovers! They also gave up 36 points.
Despite losing their QB and struggling to stop Washington in the fourth quarter, the Eagles still should have won. DeVonta Smith had a drop that likely would have gone for a TD, resulting in a win.
They lost 2 games during the season due to costly 4th quarter drops.
Looking Ahead:
The Eagles host the Washington Commanders in Philadelphia on Sunday, January 26th, at 3:00 P.M.
One of these teams will be your NFC representative in Super Bowl 59.
Go Birds!
As always, Thank you for reading.
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Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
