Aaron Nola Needs To Fix His Home Run Problem in 2025

PHILADELPHIA— Aaron Nola is holding himself back.

Although he is one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball, Nola has yet to take the next step toward being a true ace. While there is no true definition or standard for being an ace of a starting staff, Philadelphia has certainly debated whether or not he meets the mark.

If Aaron Nola fits any description, he is consistent. Excluding the 2020 Covid season, Aaron has made at least 30 starts in each of the last six seasons. In that same time frame, he has pitched no less than 180.2 innings, and 2024 was the first time he finished with less than 200 strikeouts in a season since 2017.

Since joining the Phillies in 2015, Nola has grown before our very eyes. However, Aaron’s biggest weakness as a pitcher has consistently been problems with the home run ball.

Aaron Nola and the home run

It is not hyperbole to say Aaron Nola lets up a home run every game.

In 2024, Nola allowed at least one long ball in 22 of his 33 starts. A total of 30 home runs were hit off Aaron in the regular season, which led the National League. He finished in fifth place in all of Major League Baseball, behind Kutter Crawford (34), Jose Berrios (31), Carlos Rodon (31), and Griffin Canning (31). His HR/9 ratio was 1.4, meaning that for every nine innings, he would allow at least one blast to leave the park.

In his only start in the postseason, Nola’s home run problem struck twice. Allowing home runs to Jessie Winker and Pete Alonso of the Mets, Aaron only made it through 5 innings of Game 3 in the NLDS. He allowed 4 earned runs, struck out 8 batters, and let up the two home runs.

Allowing home runs is a part of the game. When you pitch as many innings as Aaron Nola does, simple math will show you there is more of an opportunity for him to slip up. He threw the 5th most innings in baseball this season and finished just two-thirds of an inning from reaching 200 once again.

With that being said, if Aaron Nola can figure out how to keep a few more balls in the park, his overall numbers will flourish. His ERA would rank closer to the top pitchers in Major League Baseball, and the talks of him being an “ace pitcher” would certainly ramp up.

Pitch Mix

We live in a day and age where everything and anything that takes place on the baseball diamond is tracked. Whether you fancy yourself with analytics or prefer to keep an old-school approach, you certainly cannot dispute statistics.

Baseball Savant tracked all of Aaron Nola’s pitches this past season, breaking down how well hitters performed against Aaron. The level of detail even goes as far as showing viewers how certain pitch types performed. Considering the topic is allowing home runs, you can see the splits of Nola’s pitches and how many long balls were hit off of each one.

One of the statistics that jumps out right away is that Aaron Nola gets hit hard with his sinker. Batters are hitting over the .300 mark against the pitch and have put it in the seats 7 times. In 2023, Nola’s sinker allowed 5 home runs and an opposing batting average of .279. For the last two seasons, this pitch has not worked out well for Aaron.

An interesting item I discovered when reviewing the numbers was how the pitch fared in 2022. That season, only 3 long balls came off the sinker, and opponents hit just .176 against it. The difference between 2022 and the previous two seasons, however, is his primary pitch. In 2022, Aaron threw his fastball the most, with his knuckle curve being second. Over the last two years, though, Nola has thrown his knuckle curve the most, with his fastball second.

Setting up his fastball allowed Aaron Nola to utilize the sinker more effectively. If a hitter believes they are getting a fastball out of his hand, they are more likely to swing over the ball as it drops in the zone. The fastball/sinker combination seemingly worked well when the heater was his primary pitch.

2025 Preview

Is the answer to Aaron Nola’s home run problem to throw more fastballs? That is not up to me to decide. 

Aaron Nola and the Phillies pitching staff, led by pitching coach Caleb Cotham, will have to work on that solution in Spring Training. The fact of the matter is, however, if Aaron Nola can keep the ball in the park a little more often in 2025, he and the Phillies will be more successful.

As Nola chases his place in the all-time leaderboard of Phillies pitching, he could cement himself as a franchise legend by earning some hardware in 2025. Whether that is a Cy Young award, a World Series trophy, or both is up to the Phillies’ right-hander to decide.

Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports