Everyone is picking the Eagles to beat the Packers. Sportsbooks have the hometown team locked in as 4.5-point favorites while Darren Sproles recently predicted a “blowout” for his former squad. Hard to argue the facts.
Remember, Packers quarterback Jordan Love is dealing with a sore elbow and numbness in his hand. He’s expected to play but likely won’t be playing at 100-percent health. Green Bay will also be missing their top speed threat after receiver Christian Watson — a field stretcher who averaged 21.4 yards per reception — suffered a season-ending knee injury. It’s a lot to overcome against an Eagles’ roster which may be the most talented in football.
“Philly’s a hell of a team and, really, they do it in every phase of the game, offensively, defensively, and on special teams,” Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said. “It’s not an easy environment to play [in] but we had a hell of a game with them [in] Week 1 and, unfortunately, we were on the wrong side of that but we just got to get back to the drawing board and approach the week and flush this game [Week 18 loss to Chicago] as quickly as possible and move on.”
Packers vs. Eagles: Why Green Bay Pulls the Upset Win
1. Stop Saquon Barkley. Sounds easy enough, right? All they have to do is shut down the best running back in football, the same guy who racked up 132 total yards and three touchdowns against them in Week 1. That turned out to be an anomaly.
The Packers ranked No. 7 in run defense in 2024, holding opponents to 1,689 yards on the ground, or 99.4 yards per game. That number decreased to 70 yards per game over their final seven contests — and they did it despite being without starting linebacker Quay Walker and starting safety Evan Williams for three of those seven games. More impressively, the Packers stopped some legit studs: Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, De’Von Achane, and Zach Charbonnet. Yes, Barkley is a different animal but Jeff Hafley has shown his defense can rise to the occasion and stuff the run.
2. Attack the Slot
It’s going to be a harder chore than previously anticipated without Christian Watson on the field, and with Jordan Love nursing a sore elbow, but don’t expect the Packers to get too conservative. They like to establish the run first with Josh Jacobs, then identify gaps in the defense for chunk plays down the field. Look for Jayden Reed to help stretch the field for them. He is a master of EPA (Expected Points Added) which measures the value of each play by the effect it has on the offense’s likelihood to score.
Reed generated more than 20 EPA on on-breakers and vertical routes (h/t Acme Packing Company) while busting loose for scoring grabs of 70 and 33 yards in Week 1 against Philadelphia. Reed has primarily been used as a slot receiver, but will they move him outside with Watson out?
Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks are the other options. Whatever the case, the Packers would be wise to avoid going at Eagles lock-down corner Quinyon Mitchell and instead target C.J. Gardner-Johnson in the slot. The outspoken safety has been known to gamble on dig routes — and his aggressiveness sometimes gets the best of him.
3. Capitalize on Takeaways
No one knows which Jalen Hurts will be on display coming out of the concussion protocol. Will he be rattled and rusty? Will he look tentative and scared? Will he survive all four quarters? It stands to reason that Hurts will be wearing the game manager cap more than normal in this one. That means the Packers should be on the attack. Yes, their pass rush has struggled mightily in 2024 — their 35% pass-rush win rate ranked No. 26 in the NFL — but they forced the fourth-most takeaways with 31.
It is imperative for them to apply pressure to Hurts, allowing playmakers like Xavier McKinney (seven picks) to do the rest. Remember, Hurts endured his worst game of the year in Week 1: two interceptions, two fumbles, 48.3 QBR.
4. Coaching Matters
Nick Sirianni has taken his fair share of lumps in Philly. Heck, there are still murmurs going around that his job isn’t safe if the Eagles don’t make it all the way to the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, Matt LaFleur is a bit of an enigma in his own right. His 56 regular-season wins are tied for second-most in NFL history for a coach in his first five seasons. Impressive.
LaFleur has guided the Packers to two NFC Championship Games while winning Coach of the Year honors in 2021. He’s the real deal. One of his hallmarks had been going for it on fourth down — “all gas, no brakes” is the term — but not this year. The Packers have only converted 8-of-16 fourth-down attempts, compared to 19-of-27 for the Eagles. It’ll be interesting to see which approach works in the wild-card round.
5. Jake the Snake
Speaking of going for it on fourth down, the idea that a kicker could decide a playoff game is a very real possibility. The Packers inked veteran Brandon McManus early in the season to solve their kicking woes and he’s been automatic. McManus is 20-for-21 on field goals, including a long of 55 yards, and he’s yet to miss an extra point (30-for-30). Meanwhile, it has been an exercise in futility for Jake Elliott.
The one-time reliable kicker has missed eight field goals, going 1-of-7 from 50 yards or deeper en route to a 77.8 field-goal percentage. He’s also whiffed on an extra point. If this game comes down to a last-minute kick, with everything on the line, McManus is the guy you want eyeing up that kick.
Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
