The NFL playoffs is unlike any other postseason among the four major sports in the U.S. No best-of series spanning anywhere from three, five or seven games depending on the sport. No chance to bounce back the next day if you didn’t play your best. In the NFL, you get one game. That’s it. One game to execute and succeed to keep your season going, or a poor performance that can end it all.
The first-round game between the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday is arguably the marquee matchup of the opening weekend. Jalen Hurts and Jordan Love met way back in Week 1 in an Eagles 34-29 win out in Brazil. Now they will have the chance for an encore performance in South Philly. The two quarterbacks and teams are playing vastly different than they were five months ago.
Injury Concerns
Both quarterbacks are coming into the playoffs dealing with injuries. Love left the regular season finale against Chicago with an apparent hand and elbow injury. He was seen wearing a brace on the sideline, but based on Love’s postgame comments, he will be ready to go for the Packers. It might have been a case of hitting the good ol’ funny bone in his elbow.
However, Love has dealt with injuries this season, most notably suffering an MCL sprain against this very Eagles team way back in Week 1 in steamy Sao Paulo, Brazil to open up the regular season. Love ended up missing two games due to the injury.
On the other side, Hurts missed essentially the last two games of the regular season after suffering a concussion in Week 17 at Washington. He participated in walkthroughs Saturday prior to the Week 18 regular season finale and is expected to clear concussion protocol this week and be available for the game.
Concussions are always a tricky injury to predict how it could alter a player’s performance because it only takes one big hit to reoccur. Hurts resting for two straight weeks certainly helps him, but there is some uncertainty surrounding the quarterback on how he will look with a two-week hiatus from football activities.
EDGE: Perhaps a sliver towards Love only for the fact that a big hit suffered by Hurts could sideline him again.
Hurts, Eagles Better Equipped
There’s no argument that the Eagles have superior offensive weapons surrounding Hurts compared to the Packers. Saquon Barkley is a 2,000-yard rusher and for most of the season and was in the MVP discussion. Josh Jacobs had a very solid first year with the Packers, rushing for 1,329 yards, the sixth most in the NFL during the regular season, but he’s not on Barkley’s level.
The Eagles have better wide receivers in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. The Packers’ wide receiving group features young, speedy wideouts in Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs, but are very inconsistent. Green Bay will also be without one of their big play receivers in Christian Watson who suffered a torn ACL last week. Watson finished the regular season third on the team with 620 yards but dealt with injuries throughout the season, missing two games prior to being carted off the field Sunday.
At the tight end position, Dallas Goedert returned from his knee injury last week and looked solid against the Giants in a final tune up after missing a month and can certainly be a viable option for Hurts when needed. Green Bay’s tight end Tucker Kraft has been one of the better tight ends in the league this season, finished tied for 4th in the league among all tight ends with seven touchdowns and seventh in receiving yards with 707 on the season.
Oh, and the Eagles have the best offensive line in the game. Hurts has a full and healthy offense at his disposal.
EDGE: Hurts
Secondary Differences
A lot happens over the course of a regular season and that certainly rings true for these two teams since their season-opening battle in Week 1. The Eagles’ defense and more notably, their secondary, were just figuring out how it was going to gel. Cooper DeJean wasn’t healthy. Quinyon Mitchell was an unknown in terms of a production standpoint and the defense as a whole was not what it is now…one of the top units across the board in the NFL.
Love had a respectable performance in Brazil back in the first week of the season, throwing for 260 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in the loss to Philadelphia. However, this time around it will be a much different secondary Love will face.
Green Bay was also healthier. News broke last week that it is likely without top cornerback Jaire Alexander for the rest of the season after he tore his PCL, placing him on injured reserve. However, they have ball hawk safety Xavier McKinnon who has seven interceptions this season, helping the Packers to 31 total turnovers on the season which is 4th-most in the league. He will look to strike fear in Hurts who did throw two interceptions in the first meeting and according to PFF, made four turnover worthy plays in that game.
The Eagles’ quarterback still played well enough to beat the Packers throwing for 278 yards with a pair of touchdowns to go with the two picks. As of late, Hurts has been protecting the football extremely well, throwing just three interceptions since Week 2 with his last pick coming in Week 11.
If the Eagles perimeter cornerbacks in Mitchell and Slay continue to play well along with DeJean in the slot, Love could have a tough time moving the ball through the air.
EDGE: Hurts
Fast Starts
Here’s a quick snapshot of the two quarterbacks in key passing stats throughout the regular season.
Hurts – Passing Yards: 20th, Completion %: 8th, Passing TDs: 20th, QBR: 10th, Passer Rating: 5th
Love – Passing Yards: 19th, Completion %: 31st, Passing TDs: T-10th, QBR: 5th, Passer Rating: 12th
Love has the slight edge leading Hurts in three of those five categories, but the bigger factor that could determine who wins this game is which quarterback gets off to a better start.
The Eagles with Hurts in at quarterback has scored 34 points in the first quarter in 15 games (includes first touchdown scored against Washington in Week 16). For whatever reason, the offense has been unable to generate early success in the opening quarter.
The good news for Hurts and company, is that they hit their stride from the second quarter on, most notably averaging 8.8 points per second quarter, which is tied for 4th most in the NFL, opposed to 3.6 in the first, which is 21st in the league. There’s some concern on how Hurts, off for the last two weeks, will look to start the game. Slow starts haven’t been a problem for the majority of the season, but against the best teams remaining in the playoffs, it could make it more difficult for the Eagles moving forward.
On the other side, Love and the Packers are one of the top teams in terms of scoring early, averaging 6.4 points per first quarter which is tied for second-most. Without Watson who averaged over 20 yards per reception and playing in the hostile Lincoln Financial Field, if the Packers can find early success like they have this season, it can be a big benefit to Love and the offense.
EDGE: Love
Final Verdict
Football is a team sport, but the caliber of quarterback play is paramount in any team’s success. That will certainly be the case in this game. Two young quarterbacks looking to get their team past a tough first round draw.
Love has been solid throughout the season and very accurate over the last month-plus. The Packers have success getting off to quick starts but losing Watson and not having the momentum they did last year en route to the NFC Championship game might be too much to overcome. Couple that with the Packers 0-5 record against NFC playoff teams, the margin for error for Love is much smaller than Hurts.
Hurts has the edge and the better team in this second-round bout come Sunday and should lead the Eagles to the divisional round with a win.
Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
