PHILADELPHIA— The 2022 Fall Classic is still in the heads of many Phillies fans as the 2024 World Series plays on. Just two seasons ago Philadelphia had a chance to bring home the commissioner’s trophy but fell short to the Houston Astros.
A member of those Astros was third baseman Alex Bregman. The former second-overall pick has put together a solid career in Major League Baseball and will be a free agent in the coming days. While he might ultimately re-sign, the reports out of Houston make it appear Alex will be heading to a new club in 2025.
Are the Phillies potential suitors for his services? That ultimately depends on how the team approaches their current roster. Alec Bohm is the Phillies’ third baseman and is estimated to receive roughly 8 million dollars in arbitration next season. While the organization has seemingly made it clear that Alec will be their Opening Day starter, there is a sense the team might look to create a major shakeup.
Moving Bohm and signing Bregman would certainly fall under the category of a major twist. There is no realistic scenario that would see both players on the roster, so it would have to be one or the other. For the sake of this argument, it would have to be under the assumption the team trades Alec Bohm.
The Case for Bregman
Alex Bregman is a 2-time World Series champion, has played in the post-season in 8 of his 9 years in the big leagues, and is coming off the best defensive performance of his career. His offensive production was down in 2024 but his overall average and slugging percentage maintained career standards.
Bregman was once expected to be a top player in Major League Baseball. While he has been very good, he has not fulfilled some of those early expectations. He has not reached an All-Star game since 2019 (which does factor in his low popularity in amongst fans) and his offensive metrics categorize him below elite-level stature. Last season, Bregman hit .260 with a .768 OPS, 118 OPS+, and hit 26 home runs.
As mentioned, Alex is coming off the best defensive season of his career. Normally defense trends in the other direction but his 8.1 defensive rating (per FanGraphs) in 2024 is nearly four times what he produced in 2023 (2.2). For reference, Alec Bohm had a 5.7 defensive rating this season, which was considered his best season with the glove in his young career.
Bregman’s Contract
The cost for Alex Bregman would certainly play a big role in the Phillies’ potential interest. Bregman is a client of Scott Boras, who the club has dealt with often over the past several seasons. With Bryce Harper being one of Boras’s top clients, surrounding him with talent would benefit him.
With the San Francisco Giants signing Matt Chapman to a 6-year, 151 million-dollar extension, that creates the floor for what a Bregman deal might look like. He made 28.5 million dollars this past season in AAV with the Astros and likely won’t be taking a pay cut. A previous contract that might set the precedent is Anthony Rendon‘s deal with the Angels. Rendon signed for 245 million dollars over 7 years for a 35 million dollar average annual value.
Under the assumption he takes the same contract as Rendon, that would make him the second highest-paid player on the Phillies behind Zack Wheeler.
Does it Make Sense for the Phillies?
The simple answer to the question is that Alex Bregman does not make a lot of sense for the Phillies.
They had an All-Star third baseman in 2024 who drove in 97 runs and nearly led all of baseball in doubles. Bohm’s defense has improved drastically and the financial aspect for the same offensive production is not even close.
Bregman is a great player and has proven to be a winner in Major League Baseball. He would be exactly the kind of player that fans are looking for, as he is a proven post-season commodity. Frustration with Bohm boils down to his end-of-season slump and his poor playoff performances.
It is possible that Bregman will be wearing red pinstripes when players report to Clearwater in February. The chances in my opinion are less than 5%. Alec Bohm would need to be suited up for another club before the Phillies even think of signing his replacement, especially with top prospect Aidan Miller making his way up the ranks.
Bohm should and likely will be the Phillies’ starting third baseman come Opening Day. Barring a drastic move by President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski, Alec’s place in Philly seems concrete.
With that being said, the club should not feel comfortable until they have turned over every stone this off-season. Whether that is Juan Soto, Alex Bregman, Tanner Scott, or many others, the Philadelphia Phillies have to re-group to reach the World Series in 2025.
Mandatory Photo Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images
