After unceremoniously being ousted from the 2024 playoffs by the New York Mets in the National League Division Series, the Phillies have a longer-than-they-were-hoping-for layoff. Players will take that time to reflect, to get healthy, and begin mentally moving past the disappointing finish to their season. For the front office, however, it is time to begin thinking about the decisions that will need to be made in order to reverse the trend of falling shorter and shorter from the goal of winning a World Series.
The playoffs are ongoing, as both leagues are in the Championship Series. Currently, the Los Angeles Dodgers are ahead of the New York Mets, three games to two, and the New York Yankees are ahead of the Cleveland Guardians, three games to one. We aren’t yet officially in the postseason so even some of the earliest decisions must wait until MLB crowns its 2024 champion.
Two decisions are already confirmed: manager Rob Thomson was extended through 2026, and the entire major league coaching staff will be returning for 2025. Despite finishing a round earlier each season since making a surprise run to the World Series in 2022, there was no “fall guy” released of their duties as fans speculated may happen in the days since their playoff exit – the owner John Middleton, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombbrowski trust the men they have in place to take the 2025 crop, regardless of what it looks like, to return them to the World Series and get Middleton his *bleeping* trophy back.
There are key decisions that Philadelphia’s front office will need to make early on. Let’s look at what those decisions are, and how they will impact who remains from the 2024 roster come 2025.
Arbitration Eligible Phillies
Philadelphia has nine total players who are eligible for salary arbitration based on time spent 40-man rosters. The Phillies front office has to determine whether they will tender an arbitration figure, with the opportunity to continue negotiations, by November 17. If tendered an arbitration number, the club and the player will have until mid-January to come to an agreement before their salary dispute would go to an arbiter. Here are the players eligible, their service time, and some estimated salaries (estimates provided by and algorithm created by MLB Trade Rumors contributor Matt Swartz):
- Kolby Allard (4.021): $1.1MM
- Alec Bohm (4.106): $8.1MM
- Austin Hays (5.057): $6.4MM
- Brandon Marsh (3.078): $3MM
- José Ruiz (4.148): $1.2MM
- Edmundo Sosa (4.140): $2.5MM
- Bryson Stott (3.000): $3.5MM
- Garrett Stubbs (4.120): $1.2MM
- Ranger Suárez (5.112): $8.9MM
Most of the players on this list played key parts in the team’s success and have an obvious future on the 2025 team. Bohm, Marsh, Sosa, Stott, and Suárez are virtual locks to return. With starting pitching depth being more important than ever, Allard will also likely be offered arbitration.
If Ruiz really falls into the range above, that is a cheap depth piece who performed very well at times, becoming a integral piece in the bullpen in the second half. That leaves Hays and Stubbs as the only guys with question marks. If Philly thinks a guy like Rafael Marchan is ready to take the backup role, he may replace Stubbs. For what the team DJ and chief vibes officer lacks on offense, he more than makes up for in attitude, aptitude, familiarity, and most importantly – defense. It will be a tough decision, but to allow Realmuto more time to rest, the front office may determine they need more offensive production in their backup catcher.
Hays is an interesting case. Two years removed from being the center field starter in the All-Star Game for the American League, Hays dealt with an injury and a kidney infection after being acquired by the Phillies. These issues, while not in his control, really hampered the team’s ability to see what he can due donning red pinstripes.
One adjustment the team needs is less free-swinging and chasing the ball out of the zone. For what it’s worth, Hays saw 84 plate appearances in the regular season and playoffs – he drew no walks. Zero. That is not good. While he seems like a perfect platoon compliment to Marsh, one of those guys needs to cuts down on strikeouts and the other needs to take more walks – a bad combination for a team that needs the opposite in both areas.
Free Agents
With no contract options for next year, we can move to free agency. Three minor-league pitchers have already elected free agency after being out righted from the 40-man rosters. Right handers Andrew Bellatti, Nick Nelson and Dylan Covey all elected free agency back on Thursday, October 10. While all three may be familiar names, they served strictly as depth and were lower on the list of guys to be called in case of an injury.
On the major league roster, the Phillies have three pending free agents – all right handed pitchers, as well. Carlos Estévez, Jeff Hoffman, and Spencer Turnbull are all headed to free agency. Philadelphia will have a five-day exclusive negotiating window with these players as soon as the World Series ends. If they don’t come to terms with the Phillies, they will join the pool with all other free agents – free to negotiate with all teams.
Estévez was acquired from the Los Angeles Angels at the trade deadline and ended up being the de facto closer. Despite a strong start to his Phillies tenure and an awesome celebration, he struggled at the end of the season and in the NLDS.
He surrendered multiple hits in three of his final six regular season appearances – a precursor of what was to come. After a strong outing in Game 2, things took a turn for the worse, and all at the hands of Francisco Lindor. In Game 3, Estévez surrendered a RBI double to Lindor in the eighth to extend the Mets lead to five runs – he wasn’t done there.
Estévez entered Game 4 in the sixth in a less-than-ideal scenario, inheriting a bases-loaded situation with one-out with Lindor coming to the plate. Clearly amped in the situation, Estévez threw three of the top nine fastest pitches he threw all year to the Mets star in this AB, one being a 99.4 MPH fastball that Lindor promptly deposited into the Phillies bullpen out in right-center field – and the Mets never looked back on their way to the Championship Series.
Estévez was asked by reports after the game how much it hurt to fail to come through in the type of moment he was brought in to get out of:
“I knew I came over for that situation, situations like that. It hurts. It’s tough to lose a game like that. But like I said, at the same time, I know this is a really good group. This is not the last time they are gonna be in the playoffs. It is what it is, man. It’s baseball.”
Hoffman had a stellar season. He was a first-time All-Star in 2024, posting a 2.17 ERA across 68 appearances. He was one of the most dominant relievers in baseball in the regular season, but that didn’t carry over when the calendar turned to October.
Hoffman came into Game 1 in relief of Zack Wheeler in the eighth inning. The score was 1-0 Phillies when he entered, and 3-1 Mets when he left, after failing to record a single out. After a bounce-back in Game 2, he found himself in a dicey situation in Game 3 once again. Hoffman initially came on in relief of Ranger Suárez in the bottom of the fifth inning. He was able to strand the two runners he inherited to keep the Phillies in the lead.
After getting those two outs, Hoffman returned after a long time sitting on the bench. The time out of the game showed, as he lost control – throwing two wild pitches and hitting a batter en route to loading the bases and giving away to the aforementioned grand slam, nailing the casket closed on the Phillies 2024 season.
Hoffman was reflective after the loss, but focused on the team and not his personal accolades after the best season of his career:
Turnbull was brought in as a long reliever and ended up being needed in the rotation to start the season. In his familiar role, he thrived – pitching to the tune of a 1.78 ERA over seven starts (35.1 IP). In 10 relief appearances, he had a 4.26 ERA, but his impact was felt filling in for Taijuan Walker in the rotation. After not starting after the final day of April, he was called upon once again on June 26 – this time against his former club, the Detroit Tigers. After three strong innings, Turnbull would leave the game with a lat strain that he would never fully recover from.
He did pitch in the intra-squad game as a sort of dress rehersal during the Phillies off-week between the end of the regular season and the start of the Division Series. Turnbull threw just one inning because he ran his pitch count up. According to CBS Philadelphia’s Jeff Kerr, Manager Rob Thomson said Turnbull was “a little bit erratic,” and he was ultimately left off the Phillies postseason roster.
Philadelphia wouldn’t be wrong to bring back any or all three of their pending free agents as they all had good showings. As they did a lot to help Hoffman resurrect his career, I would think he is their first priority out of the three.
The roster for the Phillies is mostly set, but after three seasons of ever-growing frustrating finishes – anything can happen. The team and front office alike will need to wait and watch the World Series come to a close without them before they see how their team will begin to take shape for 2025.
Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
