Decision Day is here and the Philadelphia Union are still hoping to lock in their spot in the 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs on the final day of the regular season. Unfortunately for Jim Curtin and his Union team, even with a win against FC Cincinnati on Saturday night, the Union might end the day out the outside looking in, as they’ll need help from results around the league in order to see themselves across the line when all is said and done. Here’s how Union can punch their ticket on Decision Day.
What Union Need to Advance
Union come into Decision Day in 11th place on 37 points, with DC United and CF Montreal occupying the 8th and 9th spot, both with 40 points. MLS put out a list of 5 scenarios in which Philly would advance, but they’re kind of confusing, so I’ve done my best to simplify it for you.
In order to advance to the playoffs on Decision Day, Union need 2 things to happen:
1: Win vs FC Cincinnati
2: AND Either DC United or CF Montreal lose
A win for Philadelphia would move their point total on the season to 40, which would put them tied with DC or Montreal if either team ended up losing. The first tie-breaker in MLS is total wins, which both teams would then be tied at 10 a piece.
The second tie-breaker, and the deciding factor in which team advances to the MLS Cup Playoffs, would come down to Goal Differential. The Goal differential between Atlanta United, DC United, CF Montreal, and Philadelphia Union, the 4 teams that could all end the season with 40 points on Saturday? Atlanta United: -4, DC United: -15, CF Montreal: -18, Philadelphia Union: +8.
Yes, you read that right. The Philadelphia Union’s +8 Goal Differential is not only 12 goals better than the next closest in the bunch, but is the 5th best in the Eastern Conference. Amazingly, Philly would be the only team in Major League Soccer with a positive Goal Differential to miss the playoffs if results go against them on Saturday.
There is a world where the boys in blue win and both DC and Montreal lose, jumping Union up to the 7th spot in the East, which would grant them homefield advantage in the Wildcard Play-In game.
Playoff Probability
According to playoffstatus.com, Philly’s chances of ending Decision Day above the playoff line is down to just 20%, and of course, the team no longer controls its own destiny, needing losses from other teams in order to advance. Union could win 6-0 on Saturday night, but if both DC and Montreal pick up just a point in their games, Union will be heading on vacation early and miss the playoffs for the first time since 2017, leaving the Front Office with a lot of questions to answer in the off-season.
Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
