Philadelphia Eagles have a 39% chance of making the playoffs according to recent history

The Philadelphia Eagles are 2-2 after a tumultuous start to their 2024 campaign. While playoff hopes are dwindling under Nick Sirianni, the roster is simply too stacked to not turn things around. How hard is that task, exactly?

According to Bet Maryland, who created a study using Champs or Chumps, the Eagles, along with all other teams sitting at a 2-2 record, hold a 39% chance of making the postseason. To calculate this, they looked back at how all 53 teams fared during their first four games over the last five years, and examined how all 2-2 outfits fared. The results are surprising.

Situation	Number of Teams	Percentage
Making The Playoffs	21	39.6%
Advanced Past Wild Card Round	13	24.5%
Winning Divisional Round	5	9.4%
Winning Conference Championship	0	0.0%
Winning Super Bowl	0	0.0%

Context is obviously key here. The NFL playoffs have changed over the last year, with 14 total teams now making the postseason. The Houston Texans, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Green Bay Packers, and Los Angeles Rams ALL made the postseason in 2023 despite starting out 2-2. That’s a very different picture to the one presented in this study.

It’s also worth noting how weak the NFC is right now. 10 of the 16 teams in the conference sit at .500 or below after the opening four weeks. The Washington Commanders sit atop the NFC East while both the Eagles and Cowboys continue to struggle. This is absolutely something worth noting.

The other thing to bare in mind here is the schedule. The Eagles will face the remaining teams in 2024:

Cleveland Browns
Dallas Cowboys (x2)
Washington Commanders (x2)
New York Giants (x2)
Cincinnati Bengals
Jacksonville Jaguars
Los Angeles Rams
Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers

There are certainly some difficult games here, but it’s not like this season is a lost cause. We’re talking about one of the most talented offenses in the entire league and a defense that’s already flashed a lot of upside among some disappointing overall performances.

The Eagles have made the playoffs in 3 consecutive seasons and on paper, the team has only gotten better. Saquon Barkley has already proven himself to be worth every penny, and the bye week should not only provide an opportuntiy for reflection, but for the likes of A.J Brown, Smitty, and the offensive line to all return to full health.

With some very winnable games on deck, it’s way too soon to right off a team this talented, and Philadelphia has all the pieces of a Championship-winning puzzle. They just have to fit them together…

If you’re bullish on the Eagles to get right, now could be a great time to bet behind them.