Here we are, 159 games into the season for the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies (94-65) are the National League East Champions for the first time since 2011 and are guaranteed a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the National League Division Series. But there are still a few factors to be decided over the final weekend of play for the Phillies, and for the National League as a whole.
Still a Small Chance at the First Seed
When the Los Angeles Dodgers ( 95-64)defeated the San Diego Padres (91-68) 7-2 Thursday night, they regained a one-game lead over the Phillies while also clinching the NL West for the 11th time in 12 years.
Moving into the final weekend of action, both teams are on the road as the Phillies travel to face the Nationals and the Dodgers travel to face the Rockies. The Phillies are 8-2 against the Nationals this season while the Dodgers are 7-3 against the Rockies.
Essentially, in order to regain the top seed in the NL, the Phillies need to win one more game than the Dodgers in these three days of action. If the Dodgers win one, the Phillies need to win two. If the Dodgers win two, the Phillies need to sweep the Nationals. Should the Dodgers sweep the Nationals, it really doesn’t matter what the Phillies do. Regardless, given both teams’ records against their weekend foes, the battle for the top spot in the NL will likely conclude on Sunday.
Also of note, if the Phillies win two out of three against the Nationals, they will be guaranteed to have a better record than anyone in the American League, guaranteeing home-field advantage in the World Series should the Phillies get that far.
Wild Card Spots still on the Line
The Phillies, Brewers, and Dodgers are the respective champions of the NL East, Central, and West, with the Padres having clinched a Wild Card spot. That being said the final two Wild Card slots is still a three-horse race between the Diamondbacks, Mets, and Braves. And boy is this going to be interesting to watch.
The Diamondbacks (88-71) currently own the second Wild Card slot and have a magic number of three. The Mets (87-70) are currently in the final Wild Card slot with a magic number of four and the Braves (86-71) are currently out of the playoff picture but have a magic number of five.
Wait… what?
Both the Mets and Braves still have five games remaining on their schedule. Due to Hurricane Helene, the Braves postponed both Wednesday and Thursday’s games against the Mets, and they will play a doubleheader on Monday to make up the two contests. Not only does this mean that the Wild Card race likely won’t be decided until after the originally scheduled final day of the 2024 season. but it also means that whichever of the Braves and Mets make the playoffs will be forced to have played five games in four days and then automatically begin Wild Card play on Tuesday, likely having to travel overnight after playing a doubleheader either to Milwaukee or San Diego.
Before that final day of action, however, there is still a lot of legwork to be done for each team. All three of the Diamondbacks. The Mets and Braves have to get through a series against another playoff-bound team in the Padres, Brewers, and Royals, respectively this weekend.
Truth be told, none of these games will be a walk in the park for any of these teams. The math for the Wild Card spots will become much clearer by the end of the weekend, but as of now, the most likely scenario is that the Diamondbacks claim WC2 while the victor of Monday’s doubleheader in Atlanta will win WC3.
Most Likely Path Forward for the Phillies
Despite a chance at the top seed, the Phillies will likely conclude this weekend at the two-seed in the NL. Their most likely path forward will be to host the victor of the Brewers’ Wild Card bout against the sixth-seed. Before then, however, the Phillies need to conclude business in the District of Columbia before what will be a much-needed five-day rest period for the beleaguered Phillies lineup.
Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images
