I would hope that we all can assume that Nick Sirianni and the Eagles learned their lesson after the brutal loss to the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football.
JFK once stated
“Victory has 1000 fathers and defeat is an orphan.”
A play call that has been widely second-guessed and criticized since it failed could have been applauded and possibly revered had it been successful. Had the Eagles been more consistent in their decision-making, maybe history would not have been viewed so harshly as well.
Such is the National Football League.
Former Eagles HC Doug Pederson
Throughout the Eagles’ memorable Super Bowl season of 2017, then-Head Coach Doug Pederson was a risk taker. A gambler who famously went for it on “fourth and down”!
During Super Bowl 52 Doug Pederson called the famous “Philly Special” on 4th down.
For context, the Eagles are winning 15–12 with 38 seconds left in the first half. Everyone watching, including the commentators, assumed the Eagles would take the chip shot field goal and go into halftime with a 6-point lead. Instead, Pederson goes for the kill shot, calls one of the greatest plays in Super Bowl history, and gets the TD.
The beloved Philly Special, or “Philly Philly” as Nick stated it that night, is revered. The play design has been trademarked, tattoed on fans, printed on tee shirts, jackets, posters, and prints. There is even a statue of Doug and Nick as you enter Lincoln Financial Field.
It is remembered as one of the greatest trick plays in NFL history. Everyone loves the call and Doug never gets second-guessed for not taking the three points to end the first half of a Super Bowl to pad his lead. The main reason is because it worked.
But Doug was also consistent. That consistency also made him successful in the biggest game of his life.
He continued that same aggressive decision-making throughout the game, and another lesser-remembered play is what likely sealed their fate and eventual rising of the Lombardi trophy.
Doug Pederson goes for it on 4th and one from the Eagles on the 44-yard line with 5 mins 39 seconds left in the game, they convert to Zach Ertz, and the first down leads to an eventual game-winning TD throw to Zach Ertz with 2 minutes left in the game to go up 38–33. Again, if this play failed, it would have been a disaster. The Eagles probably never win the Super Bowl, and Coach Pederson is not immortalized with Nick Foles as you enter the stadium.
What made him different than current Eagles HC Nick Sirianni is that he was consistent in his decision-making, he coached aggressively in most situations during the season and everyone watching and playing for the team knew what to expect.
Nick Sirianni has had a wild, unpredictable approach.
Eagles HC Nick Sirianni: The Calls versus the Falcons
Aggressive
- First Quarter. On the Eagle’s 2nd drive, they faced a 4th and 4 from the ATL 9-yard line. The Eagles decided to go for it on 4th down instead of kicking a field goal, an aggressive decision, and analytically the correct one if you judge this choice by added winning percentage.
- Fourth Quarter. Declining a penalty on 3rd down would have given the Eagles a first down with 2 minutes left. Instead, Nick was aggressive. He chose not to accept the penalty and instead relied on his offense to pick up the first down and burn another 40 seconds off the clock. (The Falcons purposely made the infraction to try and save time on the clock)
Had the Eagles not been able to convert a first down after declining the penalty, there would have been those who pointed to that play and the hubris to expect his team to get the first down.
- The failed 3rd down pass play call to Saquon Barkley was aggressive, and it is a catch he makes 99 out of 100 times. If Saquon Barkley catches the pass, it is a first down or a touchdown, and the game is over. The play is hardly ever analyzed and nobody calls for his job.
Those three play calls can be debated. He could have chosen to do the pass play to Saquon on 4th down instead of 3rd, which would have burned 40 more seconds off the clock, but he would have lost the element of surprise of trying on 3rd down. He should have gone for it or he shouldn’t is not as concerning as the lack of consistency during the game with the calls. When he is aggressive, and when he isn’t.
Not aggressive
- In the 4th quarter, the team is not aggressive. The Eagles are holding onto a 3-point lead late in regulation. Instead of trying to end the game as described earlier, when the win probability percentage is better going for it on 4th down, they choose to kick a field goal.
Choosing to kick the field goal, analytically, was a mistake.
The consistent play call would be to try and convert on 4th down after missing on 3rd rather than kick the FG. If you make it on fourth down, you win the game. If you are not successful, you still increase the team’s odds of winning by forcing the Falcons to go 92 yards in 55 seconds to beat you with a touchdown or 50 yards to tie it with a long field goal as opposed to kicking off which positions the Falcons needing 20 fewer yards to get a touchdown or field goal.
A field goal by Atlanta only ties the game, and the Eagles play overtime at home. Again, analytically the odds are in the Eagle’s favor with this choice. A touchdown loses the game for the Eagles either way.
Nick should have been aggressive, but again he is aggressive until he isn’t.
Monday night is not the first time his decision-making has been wildly inconsistent.
Super Bowl 57
The Eagles are trailing 28–27 with 10 minutes to go in the fourth quarter.
The Eagles face a 4th down from their own 32 and Sirianni decides to punt rather than be aggressive and rely on his offense to try and keep the drive going. Despite going for it on fourth down two other times earlier in the game.
The Chiefs return the punt to the Eagle’s 5-yard line and 3 plays later they score a touchdown to go up by 8 points.
History suggests Doug Pederson and his continual aggressive nature would have gone for it 4th down rather than punt. Had Nick been the same, maybe they would have won Monday night. Maybe, the Eagles would have won Super Bowl 57 as well.
As always, Thank you for reading!
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Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
