After Union’s 3-1 loss to Lionel Messi and Inter Miami on Saturday night, their hopes of qualifying for the 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs have gotten more murky. With little room left for dropping points, the blue and gold need to find a way to start moving up the standings if they want to avoid missing the playoffs for the first time since 2017, and Wednesday’s road mtach against NYCFC is their next opportunity to do so.
Unfortunately for Jim Curtin and the Union, they’ll likely be missing some big names up in the Bronx, and they’ll need to have a “next man up” mentality if they want to return to Philly with points in their pocket.
How to watch Union vs NYCFC
When: Wednesday, September 18th @ 7:30pm
Where: Yankee Stadium – Bronx, NY
Where to Watch: Apple TV+
Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami Betting Odds
Philadelphia Union: +320
Draw: +310
NYCFC: -150
Philadelphia Union’s Season So Far
Union’s 3-1 loss against Inter Miami over the weekend brings them into Wednesday’s meeting against NYCFC with a record of 7W-9D-12L for a total of 30 points, 3 points off the final Eastern Conference Playoff spot.
Every point is crucial now for the Union, with 6 games to go and Playoffstatus.com giving them just a 19% chance of qualifying for the 2024 MLS Playoffs.
Link here: http://www.playoffstatus.com/mls/mlspostseasonprob.html
NYCFC’s Season So Far
Former Philadelphia Union goalkeeper, Matt Freese, played a big part in NYCFC earning a point against DC on the weekend, bringing the Pigeon’s record to 11W-7D-10L for a total of 40 points. NYCFC currently sit in 6th place in the Eastern Conference with 6 games left, but could realistically see themselves move up to the #4 seed, or all the way down to the #8 seed depending on results.
Barring a catastrophic collapse, NYCFC have a 98% chance to qualify for the 2024 playoffs, according to Playoffstatus.com
Link here: http://www.playoffstatus.com/mls/mlspostseasonprob.html
Meetings This Season
Union and NYCFC met once already this season back on May 15th, right in the middle of Union’s horrific run of just 1 win in 17 games. NYCFC jumped out to a 1-0 lead just 2 minutes into the game when Alonso Martinez finished off a counter-attacking opportunity before Union could even find their footing in the game. NYCFC would double their lead just before half-time when Hannes Wolf caught Oliver Semmle sleeping on a tight-angled free kick that would find the back of the net.
Julian Carranza would draw Union within 1 just 2 minutes into the 2nd half, but Union failed to find the equalizer in the final 43 minutes despite taking 25 total shots. Freese was credited with 4 saves on the night.
Preview By The Numbers
| Current Form- Last 5 Games | Philadelphia Union: L, D, L, W, L | NYCFC: W, D, D, L, D |
| Expected Goals: | Philadelphia: 53.03 xG (5th best) | NYCFC: 48.57 xG (11th best) |
| Total Goals Scored: | Philadelphia Union: 48 goals scored (T-7th best) | NYCFC: 39 goals scored (T-12th best) |
| Expected Conceded Goals: | Philadelphia: 41.6 xGA (15th best) | NYCFC: 39.0 xGA (20th best) |
| Goals Conceded: | Philadelphia Union: 46 goals conceded (T-11th best) | NYCFC: 37 goals conceded (T-6th best) |
| Top Goal-Scorers: | Philadelphia: Gazdag – 9, Carranza – 6, Uhre – 4 | NYCFC: Martinez – 11, Rodriguez – 9, Wolf – 5 |
| Top Assists Leaders: | Philadelphia Union: Sullivan – 4, McGlynn – 3, Wagner – 2 | NYCFC: Rodriguez – 8, Wolf – 7, Gray – 6 |
Available Players and Predicted Lineups
Jim Curtin addressed the media on Tuesday afternoon, providing an injury update ahead of Wednesday’s road match against NYCFC. Andre Blake and Danley Jean-Jacques are officially listed as Questionable. Andre Blake missed out on Saturday against Inter Miami, while Danley logged 8 minutes off the bench. In addition to both Blake and Danley’s status being up in the air, Jack Elliott will miss out against NYCFC due to yellow card accumulation. Here’s how I see Union lining up against NYCFC on Wednesday night
STARTING XI:
4-4-2 Diamond
GK: Andrew Rick
RB: Olivier Mbaizo, CB: Nate Harriel, CB: Jakob Glesnes, LB: Kai Wagner
CDM: Leon Flach
RCM: Ale Bedoya, LCM: Jack McGlynn
ST: Tai Baribo, ST: Mikael Uhre
With Jack Elliott out, and Union having no real 3rd CB option, Curtin has already said Nate Harriel will get the start next to Jakob Glesnes at CB on Wednesday night, which brings in Olivier Mbaizo at Right Back.
DJJ played a few minutes against Miami, which is a positive sign that his injury won’t keep him off the field for much longer, but I’m a bit skeptical that Danley’s ready to start on Wednesday, which makes me lean towards Leon Flach getting the start at the bottom of the diamond. The only other switch I think will happen is Ale Bedoya in for Quinn Sullivan as the shuttler on the right side.
There’s been no real indication on whether Andre Blake will be ready to go or not, which makes me think he’s not quite there yet and would be pushing himself through discomfort in order to play on Wednesday night. Andre’s availability is a vital piece to Union’s playoff hunt – but should the Union really risk Andre Blake picking up a longer-term injury just so Union can have a shot at clawing their way into a playoff spot, where they’d likely have to play Inter Miami and Lionel Messi in a 3-game series?
Quotes from Curtin
Curtin’s side was taken down by Major League Soccer’s best team at the moment, in Lionel Messi’s return after months on inaction. It was’t for a lack of effort or opportunity though, with Curtin’s side taking 22 total shots, putting 8 of them on net, and creating 4 big chances.
Realistically, on another night, Union probably score at least 1 more goal and this game is anyone’s for the taking. Curtin knows his team has to be better in front of net – both offensively and defensively – if his team is going to make the playoffs.
“If we can attack and defend and be a little more ruthless in front of goal down the stretch here, we can find ourselves in the playoffs. If we don’t do those things, we also have to recognize the urgency and that we’re running out of games to execute.”
A big piece to the playoff hunt for the Union is Ale Bedoya. Curtin was asked about Bedoya in his press conference on Tuesday, where he spent some time complimenting Bedoya’s presence both on and off the pitch this season
“He’s been great, he’s been Ale. He’s our leader, all the things that you guys don’t see behind the scenes, in the locker room, with the young players, he kind of embodies our culture here in Philly and has been amazing that way. I would also add that on the field he’s been one of our best players in terms of some of our best results are when he’s on the field.
He brings so much leadership, I think he’s getting better with age, he can think the game, he can still run and cover ground – he’s always at the top of that [the team’s data analytics] – so another great season for him, and I know he want’s nothing more than to get ourselves into the playoffs where he knows we can beat anyone. So I know that play will continue, and relying on his leadership down the stretch will be something that’s really important”.
Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports
