Bruised, battered, and bloody, the Philadelphia Phillies are still trotting full-force toward the end of the 2024 MLB regular season. Despite recent injuries to Alec Bohm, J.T. Realmuto, and Kyle Schwarber, along with the battered mess that is currently Bryce Harper, the Phillies are 8-2 over their past 10 games and own the best record in baseball at 88-58.
With 16 games remaining, the club needs to find a balance between getting rest for their starters and finishing strong as they have not only the inside track on the National League East title but also home-field advantage potentially through the World Series.
Looking Within the NL East
There are four important magic numbers that the Phillies have on their radar currently. The first two magic numbers focus on their battle within the NL East.
First, the Phillies’ magic number to secure a Wild Card spot is down to eight. Behind them in the NL East stand the New York Mets (80-66) and the Atlanta Braves (79-67). The Mets, who currently sit eight games behind the Fightins for the NL East crown, have a one-game hold over the Braves for the third Wild Card slot in the NL. Speaking of the NL East title, the Phillies’ magic number to secure the NL East for the first time since 2011 stands at nine.
With 16 games remaining, these two magic numbers add up to this: any combination of seven Phillies wins and Braves losses, and nine wins and Mets losses will result in the Phillies’ respective clinching of a Wild Card spot and the NL East title.
While nothing is guaranteed, the Phillies own a 98.8% chance of winning the NL East per Baseball Reference. They can also secure the NL East title within the next 10 games. Over the next 10 games, they face the Mets for seven and the Brewers for three. We’ll return to the Brewers in a minute, but a 6-4 record over those games would be enough to secure the NL East title, assuming the Braves lose two games in that stretch.
The Phillies Have Bigger Aspirations
Despite wanting a couple of Braves losses, fans will want to be rooting for the Atlanta Braves over the next four days. Yeah, that’s right. Blooper can actually help the Phillies for once. Their next four games are against the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Phillies’ main competition for the first seed in the National League.
The Dodgers (87-59) sit two games behind the Phillies for the top spot in the NL, given their 5-1 record against the Braves secures the tiebreaker. Four games behind the Phillies are the Milwaukee Brewers, who the club faces for a three-game set early next week. The three teams represent the leaders in the three National League divisions. The Dodgers have the Diamondbacks and Padres sitting 5.0 and 5.5 games behind them, respectively, while the Brewers have the Cubs in their peripheral at 9.0 games back. Barring a miracle, the three of them will be their respective divisions’ victors.
The top two seeds in the NL receive a bye in the Wild Card round of the postseason. The Phillies’ magic number to clinch the No. 2 seed (over the Brewers) is at 12. Meanwhile, their magic number to secure the No. 1 seed (over the Dodgers) is at 15.
The Dream Scenario for the Phillies
Having won eight of their last 10 games, the Phillies are flying high at the moment. Despite facing two playoff teams over the course of the next 10 games, they own a combined 7-2 record against the Mets and Brewers, this season.
If they can replicate their previous 10 record over the next 10, going 8-2 against the Brewers and Mets (let’s say 2-1 and 6-1, respectively), the Phillies would have clinched the NL East.
Combine that 8-2 record with the following performances from the Brewers and Dodgers, and the Phillies would have the No. 1 seed locked in:
Brewers: In addition to the Brewers’ two losses against the Phillies, they would need to lose two of their seven games against the Diamondbacks.
Dodgers: The Dodgers would need to go 3-7 over the next 10 games, including four games against the Braves, three against the Marlins, and three against the Rockies.
Back To Earth
In all likelihood, the NL East will be clinched within this 10-game stretch for the Phils. Securing the Wild Card bye and the top slot in the National League (and potentially the best record in baseball) will likely go into the final week of the regular season for the Phillies.
If it took the Phillies until the final regular season game on September 29 to secure the No. 1 slot, the Phillies would have a five-day rest window during the Wild Card round, with the National League Division Series beginning on Saturday, October 5. If the Phillies can lock in the No. 1 seed by the end of their final home series against the Cubs, the window to rest starters increases to nine days.
While rest is something this Phillies team certainly needs, there is still a lot of work to be done before they can get to that point. Once they do, however, a few days’ rest might be exactly what the team needs to reload and recharge before the Hunt for Red October begins anew.
“Nothing is done yet. Until they put that, whatever they put next to your club the [clinch indicators]… nothing is done, so we gotta keep going” – Rob Thomson following Wednesday’s victory over the Rays, via Matt Watson
Photo Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
