Predicting the Playoff Picture: Will the Union make the 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs?

I’m not sure any of us thought we’d be sitting here in the first week of September working out whether the Philadelphia Union have a realistic shot of making the 2024 MLS Cup playoffs or not, but after an abysmal stretch earlier this year where DOOP had just 1 win in 17 games, that’s the reality the Blue and Gold are facing heading into the final stretch of the season.

Jim Curtin and co. remain confident they’ll do enough to secure a spot in the MLS Cup Playoffs, and winning 7 of their previous 11 has them trending in the right direction. But the playoff picture is crowded, and the pressure is on for a Union team that hasn’t missed the post-season dating back to the 2018 season. Will the Union get enough results down the stretch to make another deep playoff push?

“We have to bring it (the momentum) back home, because at the end of the day if we don’t win our remaining 3 games at home, we’re not going to make the playoffs”
-Jim Curtin on the importance of Union’s final 3 games at home

The Playoff Picture

So where do Union currently sit in the playoff picture? After their 2-0 win at Red Bulls and 27 games played for Jim Curtin’s side, the Union have amassed a record of 7 wins, 9 draws, and 11 losses for a total of 30 points, which currently puts them at 10th place in the Eastern Conference and just 1 point behind Atlanta United for the final playoff spot.

Predicting the Final Stretch – Union’s opponents

Unfortunately for Union, even if they were able to win a majority of the remaining games on their schedule, there would still be a (slim) chance that results from teams around them in the standings could keep the Blue and Gold from clinching a spot in the playoffs – just 7 points separate Toronto FC in 8th place and New England Revolution in 13th place. We could see quite a bit of movement before the end of Decision Day, so let’s try and predict where Union’s direct competitors end their 2024 season.

Toronto FC
28 games played, 10W-3D-15L, 33 points, 8th in Eastern Conference (as of 9/4/24)
Last 5 Games: WLWWL

Toronto FC Predicted Final Record
13W-4D-17L – 43 pts

Atlanta United
27 games played, 8W-7D-12L, 31 points, 9th in Eastern Conference (as of 9/4/24)
Last 5 Games: WDDLW

Atlanta United Predicted Final Record
11W-5D-20L – 38 pts

DC United
27 games played, 7W-8D-12L, 29 points, 11th in Eastern Conference (as of 9/4/24)
Last 5 Games: DWLLW

DC United Predicted Final Record
9W-11D-14L – 38 pts

CF Montreal
27 games played, 6W-9D-12L, 27 points, 12th in Eastern Conference (as of 9/4/24)
Last 5 Games: LWLLL

CF Montreal Final Records
8W-11D-15L – 35 pts

New England Revolution
25 games played, 8W-2D-15L, 26 points, 13th in Eastern Conference (as of 9/4/24)
Last 5 Games: WDDWL

New England Predicted Final Record
12W-3D-19L – 39 pts

Predicting Philadelphia Union’s Final Stretch

Now that we’ve predicted the final run for fixtures for all the other teams, Union are hoping to edge out in the race for the final playoff spots, let’s take a look at how I expect DOOP to end the season themselves.

Philadelphia Union
27 games played, 7W-9D-11L, 30 points, 10th in Eastern Conference (as of 9/4/24)
Last 5 Games: DLDLW

Union Predicted Final Record
10-11D-13L – 41 pts

Predicted Playoff Picture

Let’s be clear, these predictions have nothing more than “vibes” behind them. Not a whole lot of thought or preparation went into making these predictions other than just putting down what I feel will be the outcome in the moment. That being said, I’m sure this whole thing will look very different than I’m expecting once things play out. Regardless, here’s how the 8-13 spots in the Eastern Conference have shaken out after my precisely calculated predictions.

8th – Toronto FC – 43 pts
9th – Philadelphia Union – 41 pts
10th – New England Revolution – 39 pts
11th – Atlanta United – 38 pts
12th – DC United – 38 pts
13th – CF Montreal – 35 pts

Not much room for error

As you can see, even after I’ve predicted Union to lose just 2 of their final 7 games of the season, the margins for making it across the playoff line and competing for the 2024 MLS Cup are slim. Anymore uncharacteristic results from the Union in the remaining portion of the season and Jim Curtin and co might be kissing their playoff hopes goodbye.

At the same time, Union fans are hoping signs of their team getting hot at the right moment are starting to show. Tai Baribo has 14 goals in his previous 15 games, with Mikael Uhre pitching in 3 goals and an assist in his previous 6.

The backline is also starting to find their footing, recording 4 clean sheets in their previous 10 matches, much of which can attributed to the return of Andre Blake – one of Major League Soccer’s best Goalkeepers of all time. And with Danley Jean-Jacques getting his first 90-minute performance for the Union under his belt – and impressing quite a bit in that performance, I might add – the transition to life without Jose Martinez might not be as difficult as previously thought.

Will Union Make the Playoffs?

So, will the Union actually make the playoffs in 2024?

I think they do. Luckily for Union, 2 of their final 7 games come against Atlanta and DC – 2 of the teams Union are directly battling for the final playoff position – at Subaru Park. And although Union’s home form hasn’t been good this season, you have to like your chances of getting 3 points in each of those matches.

Inter Miami, NYCFC, Orlando and Columbus, is a pretty difficult run of Away fixtures to end the season, and I don’t see Union getting a ton of points from these games. But if they could manage to win just one of these games on the road, it would go a LONG way in improving their chances of making the playoffs this season.

Either Orlando or NYCFC feel like the best chances for Union to snag 3 points on the road down the final stretch, with Union winning 2 of their previous 3 in NYC, and losing in just 3 of their 9 trips down to Orlando all time.

My final prediction? Union get into the playoffs on Decision Day with a win at home against FC Cincinnati, and a New England loss to Inter Miami – true Decision Day madness.

Whatever happens, we’ll keep an eye on the Playoff race heading down the final stretch of the season, and we’ll write articles to update the Playoff Picture and Union’s chances of making the playoffs for the 7th consecutive season.

Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports