Are Joel Embiid’s playoff woes overblown?

Sixers, Embiid
Philadelphia 76ers’ Joel Embiid (21) shoots over New York Knicks’ Isaiah Hartenstein (55) during the second half of Game 2 in an NBA basketball first-round playoff series Monday, April 22, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

Hating on Joel Embiid has quickly risen the ranks among America’s favorite pastimes. The newest critique that has been levied at the former MVP has been condemning his decision to suit up for Team USA this summer instead of his birth country of Cameroon or France, which granted him citizenship back in 2022.

Embiid moved to the States when he was 16 to pursue his dream of playing competitive basketball. He’s currently 30, meaning that he’s spent nearly half of his life in the U.S. already and almost certainly has more memories in the U.S. than he does of Cameroon. Regardless, his haters have no problem finding vitriol for a man who embodies the American dream better than nearly everyone else.

Inevitably Likely, Embiid will bring home gold alongside his fellow superstars and Olympians, at which point his detractors will have to pivot their rhetoric to something else equally ridiculous. With the Philadelphia 76ers surrounding him with the best-supporting cast of his career so far—adding Paul George, Caleb Martin, Eric Gordon, etc.—Embiid finally has a roster among the favorites to take home the Larry O’Brien next season. There’s little doubt that his haters will point out his past playoff woes to try to curb the excitement that’s building around Philly basketball.

Is Joel Embiid a postseason shrinker?

Sixers
New York Knicks’ Isaiah Hartenstein, left, and Donte DiVincenzo, right, defend against Philadelphia 76ers’ Joel Embiid (21) during the second half of Game 2 in an NBA basketball first-round playoff series Monday, April 22, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

Throughout his career, the Sixers have failed to advance past the second round of the playoffs with Joel Embiid. Due to his lack of a prolonged postseason run, there’s been a rising sentiment that he doesn’t show up when the lights are brightest. Thankfully, that’s a ludicrous and mostly unfounded belief.

This rhetoric has been mounting for a while, but it really came to a head in 2023, after he won MVP and then fell to the Boston Celtics in six games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. His worst critics were quick to point out the statistical dropoff between his regular-season performance that won him the MVP and his output in the postseason, going from a league-leading 33.1 points per game on 57 percent effective field goal percentage to 23.7 points on 45 eFG%.

That’s a pretty steep drop-off that’s certainly worth mentioning. But it’s also noteworthy that he was extremely hobbled for half of those games and actually had to sit out for two matchups, one against the Brooklyn Nets in the first round and Game 1 against Boston. He was listed on the injury report for every single game against the Cs except Game 7, which was arguably when his health was the worst, but they wanted to remove all doubt that he would possibly miss such a crucial contest.

Despite lackluster performances in Games 2 and 7, Embiid still played extremely well against the Celtics and almost upset a core that would go on to win the Finals the very next year. Against Boston in the 2023 playoffs, he averaged 25.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 3.0 blocks.

Most of his perceived postseason woes are actually more so a byproduct of his regular season dominance than an indictment of his playoff performances. Not accounting for his first two career postseason runs, Embiid has averaged 26.9 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 2.5 stocks per game in the playoffs while shooting 47 percent from the field. Including those first two runs, Embiid averages 24.9 points per game in the postseason, which places him among the top 25 playoff scorers of all time.

These numbers might seem a little underwhelming when compared to his MVP season, but they’re still indicative of an all-time postseason great. For example, Jimmy Butler — a heralded postseason riser — has put up 24.7 points, 6.8 rebounds, 5.7 assists, and 2.5 stocks per playoff game since taking his talents to the Miami Heat.

Impact beyond counting stats

Sixers
Philadelphia 76ers’ Joel Embiid, center, reaches over New York Knicks’ Precious Achiuwa, left, for a rebound during the first half of Game 4 in an NBA basketball first-round playoff series, Sunday, April 28, 2024, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

Not only does Embiid own some of the greatest playoff averages in NBA history, but he undeniably makes the Sixers true title threats whenever he’s on the floor. It’s been their minutes with him on the bench that have kept Philadelphia from making a deep playoff run.

So far, the 76ers are a +324 in the playoffs when Embiid’s in the game. He hasn’t quite reached the level of the all-time greats like LeBron James, Stephen Curry, or Kevin Durant just yet, but he’s on pace with players like Jayson Tatum (+412) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (+278). He’s currently lapping a couple of “best in the world” candidates in Nikola Jokic (+149) and Luka Doncic (+97).

It’s overwhelmingly evident that Embiid is not the reason why the Sixers have continually fallen short in the postseason. In these last playoffs, the Sixers scored 123.8 points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor. In the 45 total minutes he was riding the pine, their offensive rating dropped to a dismal 78.8. That is not a typo. Furthermore, they held the New York Knicks to just a 111.2 ORTG when he was roaming the paint on defense. When he was off, that number shot up to 116.0.

These aren’t cherry-picked stats, either. The most common non-Embiid lineup that the Sixers deployed against New York was comprised of Tyrese Maxey, Buddy Hield, Nicolas Batum, Tobias Harris, and Paul Reed. That group mustered an 88.5 ORTG and a 153.8 DRTG.

It’s not exactly rare for a team to be significantly better on both ends of the court when their best player is on the floor, especially under the microscope of the postseason. There have been very few teams that have relied on their franchise players the way that the Sixers have, though.

At the end of the day, this article isn’t likely to change anyone’s mind on Joel Embiid. Nothing really will until he carries the Sixers to a title or at least a sustained playoff run. This roster that Daryl Morey has built around him gives him the best shot he’s had to do so in his career. Let’s hope he can shut up all of the naysayers with Paul George and co. by his side.