Copa America 2024: Group D Preview & Betting Odds

The Copa America begins tomorrow night! We at PSN have been taking a look at all of the nations and their squads ahead of the tournament. Group D is the final group and it’s a doozy. Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, and Paraguay round out the group. Who will go on to the knockout rounds and who will be heading home?

Copa America 2024: Group D

Recent History

\While Brazil sits 3rd on the list of Nations with the most Copa America trophies displayed in their cabinet, 2019 was the only year they’ve won the tournament since 2007 after winning 5 in an 18-year stretch. Argentina sent Brazil home in the 2021 edition of Copa America, followed by a quarterfinal exit at the 2022 Qatar World Cup.

The recent recession of Brazil’s dominance sparked Brazil legend Ronaldinho to publicly call out his Native Country’s lack of form as of late after a 1-1 draw in a friendly with the United States.

Brazil: draws the US for the first time in 20 meetings

Ronaldinho: this game is not beautiful I’m out pic.twitter.com/ohPCxoEuLc
— Megan Swanick (@Meg_Swanick) June 15, 2024

Tactical Outlook

Dorival Júnior’s Brazil will likely line up in a 4-3-3 formation and will be without their shining star in Neymar and usual captain, Casemiro – who was omitted from the final squad. Since Dorival Júnior’s arrival, Brazil has conceded a majority of the possession, but elects to play out of the back with direct passes, looking to exploit space with the speed of their forwards, often playing off the last defender.

Though they can play long and direct, Brazil often looks to build from the back with quick, and sometimes one-touch, passing exchanges that help them move the ball up the pitch. Under Dorival Júnior, left-back Wendell has the freedom to jump up into the attack, whether that be up the left side of the pitch or tucked into the middle, in order to provide Brazil’s midfield with support.

Defensively, since Dorival Júnior’s appointment, Brazil’s defense looks to play with a deeper defensive line than Brazilian teams of the past. Typically a team that likes to implement the high press, Brazil is comfortable with being fluid between a 4-4-2 while without the ball to a 4-4-3 in order to push up the pitch and press a bit.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Brazil’s strength comes in their midfield and attack. A midfield made up of Wolves’ Joao Gomes, New Castle’s Bruno Guimarães, and West Ham’s Lucas Paquetá. Guimarães will be the deepest sitting midfield, providing cover for the defensive line, but will also be given the freedom to venture up the pitch at times, with Gomes dropping behind him for cover.

Lucas Paquetá will add the attacking flair in the midfield and is given the freedom to roam around the midfield and even up to the attacking line at times. In addition to the midfield, Brazil has two of the best ball-skill forwards in the game Vinicius Jr. and Rodrygo, whose speed will be heavily relied on by the Brazilians. While Raphina isn’t as skillful with the ball as his the other two, he will play a big role in playing chance creator and adding assists for Brazil.

Brazil’s biggest weakness comes in their defensive line, specifically within their outside backs. A 31-year-old Wendell and a 32-year-old Danilo mean the Brazilians have experience but could be a potential target of attack for opponents with young and energetic forwards to exploit the space left behind Danilo when he joins the attack.

Copa America 2024 Betting Odds

To qualify for the Knockout Round: -1,000
To reach the Semifinals: -500
To reach the Final: +100
To win Copa America 2024: +225

Recent History

Nestor Lorenzo’s Colombia comes into Copa America as one of the hottest teams in the competition, being unbeaten in their previous 23 matches, with their last loss coming to Argentina on February 1st, 2022. During that span, Colombia has beaten the likes of Spain, Germany, Mexico, Brazil, and Japan, and a 5-1 thrashing on the United States as of recently.

After lifting the trophy in 2001, Colombia has come close but hasn’t returned to the tournament’s finals since. Two 3rd place finishes in that span, with the most recent coming in the latest edition of the Copa America is Colombia’s biggest major tournament success as of late, with the South American side failing to qualify for the World Cup in 2022.

Tactical Outlook

Lorenzo has his Colombian side set up in a 4-2-3-1 but grants his team a bit of freedom to exploit pockets of unoccupied space to try and link up and move the ball down the pitch.

As of late, Colombian Captain, James Rodriguez has at times been used as a “point-guard” of sorts, dropping deep into the midfield to receive the ball, turn, and move the ball up the pitch with direct passes that split lines and lead his team into space with fullbacks getting forward. Luis Diaz offers speed and creativeness while in transition, but also enjoys support from midfielders and the left-back while in possession.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Colombia’s biggest strength right now might just be their confidence coming into this tournament. A lot of people will likely be surprised by Colombia’s play in this tournament, but if you’ve been paying attention to their form and what they’ve been building over the last few years then you’ll know that this team has something special right now, and sometimes “good vibes” are the thing that can push one team past another in an even match-up.

It’s a bit difficult to pinpoint a weakness in a team that hasn’t lost since 2022, but if I have to highlight one, it’s probably their #9. With Radamel Falcao now 38 years old, Nestor Lorenzo must try and find the next great goalscoring forward for Colombia. Colombia does have a few options in Rafael Santos Borre, Miguel Borja, John Duran, and John Cordoba, which all have shown glimpses of form in the past, but I’m not sure one stands out way more than the other. Who does Lorenzo lean on up front when Colombia needs a goal?

To qualify for the Knockout Round: -260
To reach the Semifinals: +175
To reach the Final: +600
To win Copa America 2024: +1,400

Recent History

This will be Costa Rica’s first Copa America appearance since their group stage exit in 2016, and after their group stage exit in each of the last 2 World Cups, the Caribbean side will hope to qualify for the knock-out round in a very difficult group.

After beating Honduras in a playoff to qualify for Copa America, Copa Rica will be coming into the tournament with some confidence, but know they have a big hill in front of them.

Tactical Outlook

Gustavo Alfaro likes to set up his Costa Rican side with a 3 CB/5-back formation, with the two outside backs venturing up the pitch to pressure defenders who are uncomfortable playing with the ball at their feet, which also makes it easy to transition into the attack with wing-backs already up in the attack, and 3 CB’s behind to cover.

The Wingbacks getting up the pitch provides width for Costa Rica in the attack, while midfielders are able to stick close to their #9 in order to provide options for link-up playing when approaching the penalty area.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Costa Rica’s current strength seems to come in their reformed tactics under Gustavo Alfaro, with a recent 4-0 win over St Kitts and Nevis, and a 3-0 against Grenada on the road. Despite their uptick in form, Costa Rica will know that they’re facing a different level of opposition at the 2024 Copa America, being grouped with Colombia and Brazil – 2 of the tournament’s current favorites.

Costa Rica’s weakness comes in their defense, often conceding multiple goals to squads that lack the attacking quality teams in Copa America. That being said, Costa Rica has only conceded 4 times in their previous 6 games, with 3 of those goals coming in a game against Argentina.

Copa America 2024 Betting Odds

To qualify for the Knockout Round: +600
To reach the Semifinals: +2,700
To reach the Final: +14,000
To win Copa America 2024: +22,000

Recent History

Paraguay, two-time champions of Copa America (1953, 1979), come into this year’s edition of the tournament looking to make noise once again after a Quarterfinals exit in 2021 and 2019, a 4th place finish in 2015, and finishing as runners-up in 2011.

They failed to qualify for the previous 3 World Cups, so Copa America is Paraguay’s opportunity to perform on the big stage, but they know they’ll be up against fierce competition in Brazil and Colombia in Group D.

Tactical Outlook

Daniel Garnero took charge of Paraguay in 2023 and I’m not sure he’s gained the full support of fans quite yet with their reactive style of play. Garnero sets his team up in a 4-2-3-1 or a 4-4-2, with 2 deep-lying midfielders that protect the back-line and have no issues bunkering down, proven by a close 1-0 loss to Argentina last Fall.

Paraguay will allow their opponents a majority of possession and will look for opportunities to double up on the attacking player with the ball, especially when the ball is moved to the wing.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Paraguay’s current strength comes in their team defense – the ability to be comfortable playing without the ball and holding high-powered offenses to limited opportunities. In their previous 6 games, Paraguay have recorded 4 clean sheets, and have conceded more than 1 goal just once in 10 games. Argentina only got off 4 shots in their 1-0 win against Paraguay last October, only unlocking La Albirroja’s strong defensive efforts with a free-kick that found the back of the net.

Their weakness, which in my opinion will lead to Paraguay being bottom of Group D, is their lack of scoring options. Miguel Almirón and Julio Enciso offer decent attacking options in the midfield, but Paraguay lacks a true, strong #9 up front that can score goals. In their previous 10 games, Paraguay has only managed to score 4 goals.