Philadelphia Union look to stay unbeaten on the road against Charlotte FC

Philadelphia Union’s 3-0 win against a 10-man New England on Saturday snapped the team’s 40-day winless streak – The Blue and Gold’s first 3-points in the bank since beating Nashville SC on the road back on April 6th. Struggling at home, but undefeated on the road in 2024, Philadelphia Union now heads down South to try and make it 2-straight wins on the road against a stingy Charlotte FC.

Matchup History

Since coming into the league in 2022, Charlotte FC and Philadelphia Union have met just 4 times in MLS play. Union have taken care of both games at Subaru Park with a 2-0 win in the inaugural meeting between the two clubs, and a 1-0 win in 2023. It’s been a much different story down in Charlotte with Union coming up winless against The Crown while visiting Bank of America Stadium after a 2-2 draw in 2023, and a humbling 4-0 loss in 2022 – the game that many DOOP fans feel lost the Supporters Shield for Union, as well as the opportunity to host MLS Cup at home.

Charlotte’s Season So Far

Charlotte FC comes into Saturday’s matchup with a record of 6W-3D-5L through 13 games for a total of 21 points, good enough to currently sit at 7th in the Eastern Conference, and 13th in the Supporters Shield race. Over their previous 5 games, Charlotte has a record of 3W-1D-1L, and a goal differential of 5 goals scored and 2 goals conceded during that span. In their previous 4 games, Charlotte’s opponents have failed to score against The Crown, who are averaging 0.9 goals conceded per match, 2nd best to only FC Cincinnati – the reigning Supporters Shield Champs.

Preview By The Numbers

Current Form- Last 5 Games	Union: L,D,L,L,W	Charlotte FC: L,W,W,W,D
Possesion:	Union: 49.2	Charlotte FC: 44.8
Expected Goals:	Union: 24.3 (5th best)	Charlotte FC: 16.4 (24th best)
Total Goals Scored:	Union: 25 (tied 4th best)	Charlotte FC: 14 (25th best)
Expected Conceded Goals:	Union: 17.1 (8th best)	Charlotte FC: 14.9 (3rd best)
Goals Conceded:	Union: 21 (19th best)	Charlotte FC: 13 (2nd best)
Top Goal-Scorers:	Union: Gazdag – 9, Carranza – 6, Uhre – 4	Charlotte FC: Agyemang – 3, Westwood – 2, Vargas – 2
Top Assists Leaders:	Union: Sullivan – 4, McGlynn – 3, Wagner – 2	Charlotte FC: Agyemang – 1, Westwood – 1, Vargas – 1
Score First %:	Union: 38%	Charlotte FC: 64%
Concede First %:	Union: 62%	Charlotte FC: 29%
% of Time Leading Game:	Union: 20%	Charlotte FC: 24%
% of Time Trailing Game:	Union: 39%	Charlotte FC: 14%

Keys To The Game

1) Be Patient against Charlotte’s stingy defense

Charlotte hasn’t conceded a goal in their previous 4 games and has held all 4 opponents to less than 1.5 xG per game – 2 of which were well below 1.0 xG. When asked about Charlotte’s defense this season, Jim Curtin said

“My biggest compliment I can give, is that it speaks to the coaching because it’s pretty much the same back-4. Of course there’s always a little bit of change and a couple guys are in or out depending on the week, but it’s not a group that has those big, household names along that backline, but they are really, really good at what they do.”
Jim Curtin

Curtin went on to note that when Charlotte gets set up and plays in front of the ball, they’re really hard to break down and Union will have to be patient as they look for their chance to pounce.

“When they are behind the ball, they are really hard to break down and they can defend very narrow and defend he box as well as any team in our league right now, and that’s been the message to our group – if you don’t hit them in the transition, once they set up then they’re really hard to break down”
Jim Curtin

You can’t win if you don’t score, obviously, but you also don’t want to go full-force and throw everyone forward against this Charlotte team, potentially opening yourself up for a dangerous counter-attacking opportunity going the other way. The Union doesn’t value possession much, which could play into their hands on Saturday night if they can keep Charlotte off the board. Defend well, be patient, and look for your chance to hit Charlotte while they’re out of position and don’t have the opportunity to set up their defense in front of the net. It might be 4 games since Charlotte’s given up a goal, but Union is the only team In MLS yet to be shut out this season.

2) Protect Oliver Semmle

Philly’s 3-0 against a 10-man New England was the team’s first clean sheet since their 2-0 win at home against Minnesota United on March 30th, 8 games prior. During the 7 games between the 2 clean sheets, Union conceded a total of 15 goals, and an average of 2.14 goals conceded per game – almost double their 1.17 goals per game conceded average from 2023.

While I don’t think backup keeper Oliver Semmle is the main culprit to point fingers at, It’s no secret what having Andre Blake in the lineup does for the comfortability of this team and especially the back-line. Regardless, it seems like Andre Blake still isn’t quite ready to return to action despite the announcement of his new contract extension, so Semmle will likely start between the posts for the 5th consecutive game.

Once again I’m stating the obvious here – but limiting silly mistakes and keeping the ball out of the back of their own net goes a long way in improving your chances of winning – go figure. But that really is Union’s biggest downfall right now, all those “uncharacteristic” goals they’re letting in. I think pointing to the number of goals they’ve conceded in comparison to their Expected Goals Conceded total shows how Philly’s defense really is being beaten by goals they’d normally not let in – Expected Goals Conceded: 17.1 (8th best), Actually Goals Conceded: 21 (19th best).

3) Keep the Front 3 going

Jim Curtin spoke a few games ago about how important getting the front 3 of Julian Carranza, Mikael Uhre and Daniel Gazdag a string of games where they’re all healthy together would be for this team. After 3 goals from the trio in New England last weekend (Gazdag – 2, Carranza – 1), that brings the Front 3’s goal total up to 19 for the 2024 season.

Gazdag leads the team with 9 goals this season, and Jim Curtin has spoken on his ability to go “invisible” to defenses while in the box and acting as a 3rd striker, scoring all 7 of his goals from open play from within 12 yards out. This front 3 clicking and being dangerous is the first line of defense for this team, and if Union scores down in Charlotte on Saturday then I’m willing to bet it comes from one of the 3 up top.

4) Keep the home crowd quiet

Charlotte have one of the best atmospheres in MLS, which is kind of weird to say for a team playing in an NFL stadium – but The Bank really does go off for The Crown. So far at home his season, Charlotte has a record of 5W-2D-1L for 17 points at The Bank and had just 1 loss in their final 10 games at home to end the 2023 season.

A lot of their success at home has to do with the fans behind the team, no matter what the roster-building situation looks like on the pitch. Charlotte fans show up early to party, they party during the game, and then go out to party afterward, so keeping that crowd as quiet as possible will play a big role in Union staying within reach of Charlotte in Saturday’s game. An early goal on the road would go a long way in keeping this Philly side unbeaten away from home.

Lineup Predictions

Let’s get the injury updates out of the way – Jim Curtin says that Damion Lowe has returned to full training and is available for selection, and Jose Martinez has been training off to the side after having some chest pain that withdrew him from the game against New England, so he’s probably sill questionable for Saturday night.

We didn’t get a 100% direct answer from Jim Curtin on Andre Blake’s health, but him said that they’re still trying to figure out exactly what’s wrong with Blake’s knee and that they’re looking at a second opinion for a recovery plan tells me he’s not available Saturday night against Charlotte, and maybe keeping him off the turf is a good idea anyway. So here’s how I think Union will lineup on Saturday:

GK: Oliver Semmle
RB: Nathan Harriel, CB: Jakob Glesnes, CB: Jack Elliott, LB: Kai Wagner
CDM: Leon Flach
RCM: Ale Bedoya, LCM: Jack McGlynn
CAM: Daniel Gazdag
ST: Julian Carranza, ST: Mikael Uhre

Score Predictions

It’s going to be a tough test for Union on the road in Charlotte this weekend, but they’re a team that loves to play with their backs against the wall. Unbeaten on the road so far this season, and I think that trend continues Saturday night. Charlotte’s stingy defense will frustrate Philly going forward, but Union will play a smart, patient game and wait for their opportunity to make Charlotte pay. The chance to do so may come seldomly, but I think Union will find a way to put one in the back of the net and earn a point on the road in a 1-1 draw.