Phillies vs Marlins: Talk about a splashdown. It wasn’t long before Florida native Nick Castellanos started the scoring Friday night. A 400-foot home run got the Phillies a lead they would never surrender, thanks partly to the MLB wins leader, Ranger Suárez.
Suárez now holds the lowest WHIP (0.72) and second-lowest ERA (1.50) of all Major League pitchers. According to OptaStats, Suárez’s 0.72 WHIP through eight starts is the lowest since 1908. Not exactly the Cy Young candidate the Phillies expected in 2024.
So, as the Phillies look to take the series on Saturday, Taijuan Walker will make his third start of the season. If Walker wants to hold off the impressive Spencer Turnbull, he’ll need his best Suárez impression.
While we all wonder which mystery meat we’ll see John Kruk dispose of today, let’s pray for some offense because it’s time for some daytime baseball.
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Phillies vs Marlins game info
- Location: loanDepot Park | Miami, FL
- Time: May 10th, 4:11p EST
- Channel: NBCSP | Bally Sports Florida
Phillies vs Marlins Betting Stats:
| BOOK | MONEYLINE | SPREAD | O/U RUNS |
| FANDUEL | PHILLIES (-132) | MARLINS (+112) | PHILLIES -1.5 (+126) | 7.5 |
| DRAFTKINGS | PHILLIES (-135) | MARLINS (+114) | PHILLIES -1.5 (-130) | 7.5 |
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Phillies vs Marlins: Pitching Matchup
RHP Taijuan Walker (2-0, 6.39 ERA) v. LHP Jesús Luzardo (0-2. 6.58 ERA)
There are a couple of Marlins who like seeing Walker’s name called. Bryan De La Cruz, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Josh Bell have combined for two homers, nine RBIs, and a lifetime batting average of .377.
Given their recent offensive performance, I’d typically avoid including Marlins hitters in any wagers. Still, Saturday will be a good opportunity for a mixed-team parlay with any of those three hard hitters.
Walker’s most recent start against the San Francisco Giants saw him record an uncharacteristic seven strikeouts. Today, you’d have +330 odds for Walker to record 7+ strikeouts, but I’d steer clear of that one. Miami still has the third-fewest strikeouts in the National League for its many offensive limitations.
Best Bet Verdict: following a rocky start to the season, Walker’s still 2-0 and has a great opportunity to boost his confidence and settle in against a Marlins group trending in the wrong direction.
While I like Walker around ~4 strikeouts, adding 4+ K’s to any parlay you’ve got going yields odds of -320. I’m playing it safe, but I’d rather stay away from massive strikeout figures until we see a few more starts from the veteran.
Quick Hits – Phillies vs Marlins
The kid loves baseball.
Predictably, the Johan Rojas experience has been a bit of a rollercoaster. While his -2 Defensive Runs Saved need improvement, his .234 batting average is deceptive, considering how dynamic he’s been offensively.
For your nine-hole hitter, he’s hitting .274 on balls put in play, adding eight stolen bases. The disparity between his BA and BAbip is 40 points, and we’ve seen that in action via the infield single. He’s even hitting .286 when pitchers get ahead in the count.
He’s been competitive, and we’ve seen his confidence grow by leaps and bounds. You can see him having fun, ask Castellanos.
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This is all to say: Rojas has been fun to watch, and you can get incredible +175 odds on him to score a run this afternoon. Lock that in.
J.T. Realmuto – more consistent than Kruk eating ice cream during the broadcast.
Baseball’s most complete catcher has had a solid, if not forgettable, start to 2024, but the last two weeks have been fruitful. While we’re still not seeing ‘leave the park’ power, J.T. Realmuto’s tagged four extra-base hits alongside a .902 OPS.
With Trea Turner sidelined, he’s slotting into the 2-hole and saw five total at-bats in last night’s victory. That’s plenty of time to record a couple of bags.
At +100, I like Realmuto to record 2+ bases despite his career .077 BA against Luzardo. Against his former team, I’m taking the heat over the history.
EdmunDON’T quit him yet.
Edmundo Sosa didn’t have quite the performance I expected last night amidst a run on offense, but he’s starting again this afternoon, and I’ve got good news – he hits Luzardo hard.
It’s another small sample size, but across six at-bats, Sosa has tallied two home runs and a 2.238 OPS against Miami’s left-hander. While you can get him to hit a dinger at +800, that’s a bit rich for my blood.
Let’s run it back with Sosa to record an RBI at +200.
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A special thanks as always to BaseballReference.com – the absolute #1 resource for in-depth stats and trends for all our favorite players.
AP Photo/Matt Rourke
