The Philadelphia Phillies are back in action! The regular season may have tipped off for 80 percent of the league on Thursday, but due to some forecasted rain that never came to fruition – fans of the Phillies had to wait another day to see their squad take the field for their first regular season game of 2024. This season is starting hot, as they welcome the rival Atlanta Braves to town over opening weekend.
Let’s look at the matchups.
Friday, March 29: Wheeler v Strider
Phillies are starting the season off with the New Ace in Town himself – Zack Wheeler. After finishing 6th in Cy Young award voting and earning himself his first Gold Glove in 2023, Wheeler was rewarded by his club even further in two ways – signing a 3-year extension worth $126 million, as well as being named the Opening Day starter. This comes after 6 straight years of teammate Aaron Nola starting the season at the top of the Phils’ rotation.
Wheeler has been successful against Atlanta in his career and was 2-0 in his three starts against them in 2023. He recorded a 3.32 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, and nearly 10 K/9 against the Braves this past season, and they are returning with mostly the same lineup they had a year ago.
The dangerous offense that Atlanta can deliver did tag him for 4 HR in his 19 innings – tied for the most he allowed against one club last year, so that is something to keep an eye on. Another thing to pay close attention to is that Wheeler will be using a new pitch he debuted during Spring Training – the Splitter.
Spencer Strider will toe the rubber for Atlanta on Friday – his first nod on Opening Day – and despite your most recent memory of him, he is no slouch. Last season, he was simply incredible – a horse, if you will. He led all of the majors in Wins (20), winning percentage (80%), strikeouts (281), and K/9 (13.5). Strider also has dominated the Phillies during the regular season in his short career:
- Strider vs. Phillies (regular season): 8-0, 1.90 ERA, 0.739 WHIP, 72 Ks in 47.1 IP
If you thought those numbers were gaudy, his ERA against them drops when he’s in Philly, all the way down to 1.42 – silly stuff. However, fans in Philadelphia will remember him most for blowing up against them twice in his three postseason starts against the Phillies over the past 2 years and that ugly 5.40 ERA. However, that postseason is in the past, and Strider has shown an ability to dominate anyone who steps into that batter’s box during the regular season.
Saturday, March 30: Nola v Fried
Aaron Nola will lead the way for the Phillies on Saturday. The incumbent Opening Day starter may have moved to Day 2 this year, but he doesn’t seem upset. In fact, he suggested it a few weeks prior to it being announced according to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com.
Nola’s up-and-down career continued last year. After a dominant 2022, he struggled to the tune of a 4.46 ERA. Not what you want from the top guy in your rotation, but he was a model of consistency once again – throwing 193.2 innings in 2023. In fact, he has started at least 32 games and thrown at least 180 innings in each of the last 6 full seasons. His ERA against the Braves last year was 3.50 – only a tick worse than his career 3.40 ERA against them, so he was still able to rise to the occasion when he needed to.
Max Fried is also not to be judged solely on the last two postseasons against the Phillies – he is much more formidable than his postseason ERA of 8.59 against Philly the last 2 postseasons would suggest. Although his career numbers against Philadelphia are more pedestrian than Strider’s, he shut them down in his one start against them in 2023 – 5 IP, 4 hits allowed, 6 strikeouts, and only 1 run allowed (Castellanos solo HR).
Fried will look to rebound after an injury-plagued 2023 prevented him from replicating his Cy Young runner-up performance in 2022. Expect him to be tough to get to on Saturday.
Sunday, March 31: Suárez v Sale
Ranger Suárez – mister cool, calm, and collected – will take the mound for Philadelphia in the final game of the series. The fan favorite has really started to settle into his own as a full-time starting pitcher, and he understands the assignment when the Braves are in the opposing dugout.
In his 16 career appearances (7 starts) against them, the left-hander has pitched to the tune of a 3.00 ERA while averaging a strikeout per inning. In his one start last season, he went 6 strong innings, allowing a single run on 4 hits and 2 walks while striking out 7 in a formidable lineup. His demeanor may be laid back, but he can twirl it and pick it out there – he might be your favorite pitcher’s favorite pitcher.
Chris Sale has a new home in Atlanta and is no stranger to big-time moments and matchups, having played for the Red Sox and being named to 7 straight All-Star games earlier in his career. He finished top 6 in Cy Young voting each of those years, as well. More recently, he has spent a significant amount of time on the injured list but was able to push through 20 starts in 2023 for Boston. Sale may be getting older, but the veteran has the benefit of working with a pitching staff that helped older pitchers like teammate Charlie Morton stay healthy and pitch strong.
Sale did face Philly last season, earning a win despite allowing 3 runs on 7 hits and a walk while striking out 10 Phillies over 6 innings. His career numbers against Philly are worse. In three starts, he dominated once in 2017, but also allowed 6 runs in 4 innings back in 2016 when the Phillies were running a lineup that had Cesar Hernandez and Roman Quinn batting 1 and 2, respectively. Sale is not the same pitcher he once was, but he is savvy enough to be able to pull out a strong outing when needed.
Players to watch
This weekend, I will keep an eye on Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper. Both men love the bright lights and have done damage against Atlanta’s pitching in the past. Harper is settled in at his new position, and for Castellanos – well, the season does kick-off on Good Friday. Do with that information what you will.
Happy Opening Day, Phillies fans!
Photo Credit: (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
