The Phillies have a few key players that have become free agents including Aaron Nola, Rhys Hoskins, and Craig Kimbrel. So the question is, what do the Phillies need to do to keep their playoff window open?
When the moves start nobody knows. Usually, the Winter Meetings get things going. This year they take place in Nashville from December 4-7.
Run It Back (for the most part)
There have already been some rumors floating around this offseason. An early one was the Phillies shopping Nick Castellanos. Another is connecting the Phillies to possible 2X Cy Young winner Blake Snell.
But the Phillies shouldn’t stray far from what’s worked.
From 2022-23, the Phils have featured essentially the same roster. To their credit, they’ve made a splash in the playoffs in both seasons. A bad 2-game stretch by the team’s biggest stars separated the Phillies from going to back-to-back World Series for only the 2nd time in franchise history.
Why would now be the time to change things around?
The team feature a lineup filled with threats. Some want them to trade away Kyle Schwarber. Ignore the batting average and you have an .822 OPS with 93 homers and 198 RBI in just 2 seasons.
Remember that Castellanos trade rumor? He’s coming off of an All-Star season with 29 homers and a career-high 106 RBI. And, oh yeah, he destroyed the Braves in the playoffs with a .467/.529/.1.267 slash line. That’s a 1.267 slugging % not OPS.
And why not stick with Aaron Nola if possible? Let’s ignore the regular season for a moment. In the postseason, Nola had a 2.35 ERA in 23 IP with 23 Ks to match.
Now to address the disappointing regular season. Despite having his 5th straight (ignoring 2020) 200+ strikeout season, Nola had a 4.46 ERA and a career-high 1.5 HR/9. It wasn’t the first time Nola had a rough season. In 2021, Nola had a 4.63 ERA, even worse than in 2023. In 2022, he rebounded to a 4th place Cy Young award finish with a league-leading 8.1 SO/K.
Nola made an adjustment late in the season which led to his success in the postseason. There’s no reason we couldn’t expect similar results in 2024.
Should there be any changes?
Yes. A stagnant offseason after a promising postseason would be nothing short of a disappointment to players and fans alike.
From the sounds of things, Rhys Hoskins will not be back as Bryce Harper will remain at 1B. It’s doubtful that the Phillies will bring back Craig Kimbrel as well.
If other teams seriously pursue Aaron Nola, the Phillies might have to pivot in another direction. Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Sonny Gray, or Yoshinobu Yamamoto would all be other options available.
The Phillies will probably make a couple of other minor moves as well as they always do.
Don’t be surprised if the Phillies try to lock up some other their young players or even extend Zack Wheeler.
AP Photo/Matt Slocum
