The Philadelphia 76ers are in a weird place right now, and it’s primarily because of the standoff happening between James Harden and Daryl Morey. While it isn’t necessary to rehash here, it does leave a strange cloud looming over the question of what the 76ers’ closing lineup will look like.
With the likelihood of James Harden being traded and the potential of James Harden not playing for the Sixers, we look at two different potential closing lineups for the Philadelphia 76ers for the upcoming season.
A Closing Lineup with James Harden
With trade talks between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Los Angeles Clippers stalled, the Philadelphia 76ers organization, and fans, have begun to accept the possibility of James Harden playing a significant amount of time for the 76ers this season. If that were to happen, a potential 76ers closing lineup would feature:
- Point Guard: James Harden
- Shooting Guard: Tyrese Maxey
- Small Forward: De’Anthony Melton
- Power Forward: Tobias Harris
- Center: Joel Embiid
While this may not be the obvious choice, I do believe that this would be a highly effective lineup. Most people lean towards a similar lineup that instead features Tobias Harris at the small forward position and someone like P.J. Tucker to play power forward. That may be the staple lineup we all expect to see from Philadelphia, but a lineup that lets two excellent off-ball guards run through hand-crafted Nick Nurse sets could truly be a thing of beauty. Almost every single one of these players benefits significantly from James Harden’s passing ability.
Maxey and Melton both see significant improvements in their effective field goal percentage (eFG%) and three-point percentage, as does Tobias. Melton’s effective field percentage jumps from 52.4% without James Harden to 56.8% with Harden. His three-point percentage goes from 37.2% to 40.5%.
Maxey’s eFG% goes from 54.4% to 60.2%. His three-point percentage also jumps up to 44.4% from 42.2%. While this closing lineup may not work against all teams, this lineup could also prove extremely deadly with the mixture of playmaking, speed, and shooting around MVP Joel Embiid.
A Closing Lineup without James Harden
On the other hand, the Sixers could very well be experiencing life without Harden sooner rather than later. With the possibility of Harden not playing a minute for Philadelphia and the eventual trade, the Sixers could have to look at a closing lineup without The Beard. Nick Nurse has already alluded to the idea of life without James Haden. If this is the case, the Sixers closing lineup could potentially look like this:
- Point Guard: Tyrese Maxey
- Shooting Guard: De’Anthony Melton
- Small Forward: Tobias Harris
- Power Forward: Paul Reed
- Center: Joel Embiid
Maxey and Melton will be able to play off of each other’s strengths in this lineup, splitting the defense of the opposing team’s guards. Defense is not Maxey’s strongest trait, and having Melton in the lineup lets Maxey guard a team’s second-best guard, allowing Melton to focus his suffocating defense on their primary guard.
Tobias is a mainstay in these lineups because of his versatility. He may not be the third star people want, but he is surely one of the best players for the team, thanks to his three-point shooting and rebounding. Paul Reed is an athletic big who brings a great defensive energy to the floor. He also has talked about his willingness to take threes in the upcoming season. Joel Embiid is here simply because he is the best player in the NBA.
Many may wonder why P.J. Tucker isn’t included in this closing lineup because of his leadership and his selfless style of play. Those are great attributes to have on the court in a closing lineup, but two things still kept me from putting him in. First, Tucker is likely to be moved in any James Harden trade. Secondly, Tucker’s offensive limitations.
While Tucker did have a solid regular season last year, averaging 3.5 points per game on 42.7/39.3/82.6 shooting splits, Tucker also spent a considerable amount of time sharing the court with James Harden.
P.J. shared the court with Harden for 1,329 minutes last season out of the 1,920 minutes that Tucker was on the court, meaning that nearly 70% of Tucker’s playing time was with Harden. With Harden on the court, Tucker shot 43.9% from beyond the arc. Tucker was within Harden for 591 minutes, and that 43.9% mark drops by nearly 20%, all the way down to a 24.2% three-point percentage.
Which Will We See for the 76ers?
At this point, it’s unclear which way the Sixers will lean. Nick Nurse is an excellent coach who excels at getting the most out of his players, and it’s not hard to see a world where both lineups could be used interchangeably from game to game.
While Harden’s decision to play or not to play is not yet clear, nor is it clear when Harden will finally be traded, the Sixers have a ton of options for the regular season. With Kelly Oubre Jr., Patrick Beverly, and others all being viable options to play significant minutes, the Sixers are in a good place when it comes to options for their closing lineups.
