I usually start these articles with an incredible stat about the Philadelphia Phillies or maybe even an anecdote about Matt Olson. Unfortunately, I’m still reeling from the other night.
Here’s how it started, a ninth inning in which the Phillies had an 8-2 lead and entered Philadelphia’s greatest villain since Ben Simmons, Juerys Familia.
That’s right. I took the Phillies to win by at least two runs, a bet that looked relatively bonafide until the closing minutes of Thursday night’s clash.
Suddenly, thanks to a vintage performance from Familia, it’s 8-6, and the Phillies are still hanging on with Seranthony Dominguez approaching the mound.
Then, a grounder to second scores the run on third, and I’ve lost.
I’m a loser. I know this, everyone knows this, but unlike Familia, I don’t make $5MM a year.
We gamble to fill some void. Maybe because the hostess wouldn’t sit you by the window, or perhaps you just turned 28 and still have the features of a toddler. Who can say?
But we come back again and again because, sometimes, just sometimes, you furkin win. Come and furkin win with me today.
Pitching matchup Friday, July 30th, 7:15p @ PNC Park
Ranger Suárez (7-5, 3.84 ERA) vs. Mitch Keller (3-7, 4.55 ERA)
It turns out that Ranger Suarez isn’t a half-bad fourth starter. I’m comparing him to Bailey Falter, so relax. Consider that he’s gone at least five innings in both July starts and hasn’t allowed a single earned run.
While the Phillies still need starting pitching at the Trade Deadline, Suárez makes sense as this team’s fourth starter. This might be a tall order, but at +138 odds, I like Suárez over six total strikeouts against a Pirates team that’s 3rd worst in the MLB when it comes to whiffs.
Keller has had an incredibly average month, allowing at least three runs in half his starts. It could be a good spot for the Phillies’ offense to continue their roll. That’s why we’re also taking OVER 8 runs. Cheeky!
Phillies Daily Fantasy Pick of the Day
It shouldn’t be surprising, but Alec Bohm has fantastic value right now. He’s $2,800 on FanDuel, and that should be a no-brainer for the youngster with a 1.067 OPS over the last seven days.
It sounds like manager Rob Thompson will slot Bohm a bit higher in the lineup. We will take a three-hole-hitter under $3,000 any day.
Phillies vs. Marlins Betting Information & the Bet We Like Best
The Phillies are the favorited once again. That’s no surprise, really; they’re playing the Pirates, after all. At +107, that -1.5 spread is looking mighty tasty, especially with Ranger on the mound. It could be easy money, but if you’re looking for even more dangerous game, I just might have the answer.
Looking at props, Rhys Hoskins or Kyle Schwarber might feel a bit safer, but I have a home run hunch tonight. Right now on FanDuel, you can get Darick Hall at 5-to-1 odds to go long. Considering 24% of all his Major League hits have left the park, you’re getting excellent odds against a righty start in Keller. Four of Hall’s five home runs have come against righties.
