PointsBet recently released their win total lines for the 2022-2023 NBA regular season, one of the first sportsbooks to have made it available. For the Philadelphia 76ers, they set the bet at 50.5, expecting a plateau from the squad despite numerous changes to the roster compared to the beginning of the 2021-2022 campaign.
They have the Boston Celtics currently listed with the highest projected wins at 55.5, followed by the Los Angeles Clippers at 53.5 and the Phoenix Suns at 52.5. Only two teams in the NBA eclipsed 55 regular season victories last year: the Suns with 64 and the Memphis Grizzlies with a shockingly dominant run that gave them 56 dubs and the second seed in the Western Conference.
PointsBet expects plenty of teams to participate in the Victor Wembenyama sweepstakes and play for lottery odds rather than actual victories, tagging six teams with win totals under 28 games: the Houston Rockets and the Oklahoma City Thunder at 27.5, the Detroit Pistons at 26.5, the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder at 25.5, and the San Antonio Spurs to grab the top spot in the lottery at just 23.5.
Interestingly, the Los Angeles Lakers, Brooklyn Nets, Utah Jazz, and New York Knicks have not yet been listed, likely due to the developing Kyrie Irving and Donovan Mitchell trade situations. Still holding onto outside chances at landing Kevin Durant, the Suns at 52.5 and Miami Heat at 49.5 could be wind up being easy overs if they’re able to land the Slim Reaper.
At 50.5, the 76ers share a projected win total with the reigning champion Golden State Warriors and the Denver Nuggets, putting them among elite company. It also makes Philly tied for sixth among all rankings. But ultimately, is the over or the under the safer bet?
Reasons to bet the over
1. James Harden
Even with a clearly hampered and still adjusting James Harden, the 76ers put together a 14-7 record when the Beard suited up for them last season. That victory rate would put them on pace to secure over 54 wins over the course of an 82-game season.
Now, he’s set to have a full campaign alongside Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and Tobias Harris, better acclimated to the system and his new teammates and healthier. He’s also proven to be more motivated to succeed than he has ever shown in his career thus far. Having taken a massive pay cut to aid President of Basketball Operations Daryl Morey in acquiring the most talent possible this offseason, the Beard just needs to show that he’s more physically committed to basketball than in summers past, as well.
For years now, Harden would use the beginning of the regular season to play himself into shape after fully utilizing the summer for non-basketball-related activities. Still, he’d dominate despite not being within his physical peak. Imagine what the 76ers could do with a fully motivated and in-shape James Harden alongside Embiid.
2. Tyrese Maxey
Tyrese Maxey is quickly becoming a star in his own right. Last year, he put up a stellar 17.5 points per game on some historically great efficiency for a second-year player, shooting 49 percent from the field and 43 from deep.
Those marks climbed even further north once Harden arrived in Philly. Running alongside the Beard, the former Kentucky Wildcat saw his averages shoot up to 18 points per game while slashing a jaw-dropping 52/50/85 line, according to statmuse.
If Maxey can continue his upward trajectory as a prospect, he should be able to help lead the 76ers easily over 51 wins with room to spare.
3. Daryl Morey (and the roster)
Daryl Morey has had an excessively successful summer so far, so much so that another NBA executive feels the need to investigate him. He’s managed to substantially upgrade the roster compared to the beginning of last season.
Here were the 10 players that received meaningful minutes in the 76ers’ opening night victory over the New Orleans Pelicans last year: Maxey, Embiid, Harris, Seth Curry, Matisse Thybulle, Furkan Korkmaz, Andre Drummond, Danny Green, Georges Niang, and Isaiah Joe.
Fast forward to today, and the 76ers’ new projected playoff rotation is set to feature: Harden, Embiid, Harris, Maxey, P.J. Tucker, Danuel House, De’Anthony Melton, and Thybulle. That’s a significant upgrade over Philadelphia’s top-eight to open the season in 2021-2022, when they managed to win 51 games.
Reason to bet the under
1. Health
The only reason to expect the 76ers to win less than 51 games is if one is anticipating some kind of horrid injury luck for the team. Philadelphia is set to deploy its deepest roster since they had Jimmy Butler in 2019 and could be even deeper and more well-rounded than that iteration that came within four bounces of the Eastern Conference Finals.
Of course, it’s almost always wiser to bet the under rather than the over on a future line such as this one. Statistically, there are just more ways for a team to go under their win total than over. But all of Philly’s potential disaster scenarios involve some kind of major injury.
The team will be returning nearly its entire core from the second half of last season, plus a couple of lean, mean 3-and-D wings in P.J. Tucker and Danuel House. Continuity has always been the great predictor for regular season success, and the Sixers are set to run it back with one of the most dangerous cores in the NBA. So long as neither Harden nor Embiid encounters a major injury that sidelines them for a majority of the season, then the Sixers should easily clear 51 victories.
Final verdict for the 76ers’ season
Bet the over. The case has been made, and the Philadelphia 76ers are set to be one of the most dominant teams in the entire league next year. Couple that with the fact that several teams are sure to join the Victor Wembenyama sweepstakes should they get off to a slow start, and Philadelphia should be able to steamroll their way through the regular season in 2022-2023.
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