Liam and Ricky were back at it this week, and are ready to spread the love, some may say. There is a lot on the line in some crucial divisional matches in week 14, so we wanted to help you make as educated as picks as possible. Liam provided some flame and a deep stats dive, as Ricky provided his typical prop pick extravaganza.
We have each compiled our best bet of the week, and also have picks galore in this week’s latest podcast. As the NFL season begins to come to a close, make sure to subscribe to PSN Radio as we will be continuing to give you our best picks of the week.
Eagles v. Saints… Just Stay Away
More likely than not, you are an Eagles’ fan reading this piece. We have seen the Philadelphia Eagles be extraordinarily bad this season, and this likely isn’t going to change this week.
The 3-8-1 Eagles play host to the 10-2 Saints today at 4:25. Here’s some notable trends:
- Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog
- Over is 24-9 in Saints last 33 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games in December
With all of this being said, though, do yourself a favor- do not bet a winner in this game by any means. Avoid the money line and the spread, unless you are overly confident. And in that case, I wish I had your positivity.
However, there is one play that stands out above the rest. The Eagles are statistically the worst defensive team against mobile quarterbacks, allowing 331 QB rushing yards in 2020. Guess who is on the other side of the ball?
No other than Taysom Hill, who his head coach Sean Payton loves uncontrollably. With the combination of a strong rush that will cause Hill to scramble, and then also the weak Eagles’ linebacker position, we fully expect Hill to run all around that defense today.
Hill is currently averaging 5.2 yards per carry this season, so he will only need about nine rushes to go over his 44.5 rushing yards total. Take Hill’s over for rush yards, which is a number that he’s gone over in every game since November 8.
Bets of the Week:
Liam:
WAS v. SF under 43
Liam thinks this is going to be a really low scoring game. Between the 49ers defense and the lack of scoring between these offenses, whoever gets to three scores first is likely going to win.
On the flip side, Washington is 4th in adjusted sack rates and have one of the highest pressure rates in the NFL as well. The Niners offense has not shown us anything to think that Chase Young and the Football Team’s defense can’t do some damage of their own. Standout running back Antonio Gibson is also out for WAS, making Alex Smith have some more responsibility. The pass catching ability of J.D. McKissic will lead to many dump offs, running this clock down as well.
To add onto this, Ricky really agreed with this pick, and took it a step further by taking the u21.5 first half total. Both Washington and San Francisco are among the league’s lowest-scoring first-half teams, with the two clubs combining for 20 first-half points per game this season—but just 17 ppg over their last three games.
Ricky:
Three Team Teaser again!
- Broncos/Panthers under 52.5 after being teased
- Texans/Bears o38.5 after being teased
- Cowboys/Bengals u49.5 after being teased
I am on a six game winning streak since starting these three team teasers six weeks ago. These have been on fire, and have had one of the highest win rates for me in my betting career. Here’s a brief breakdown of each pick, but more detailed analysis is in the podcast below:
- Drew Lock’s offense (minus one week) has scored just five TDs since Week 10 and leads the league in giveaways per game at 2.3. Carolina has been afflicted by a few of the same problems as the Denver offense, specifically scoring in the red zone. Teddy Bridgewater’s offense is in the bottom 10 in converting TDs in the red zone and is averaging the second-most field goals per game on the year. Three points in the RZ is a death sentence for Overs.
- The Texans have seen an average O/U total of 51 points this year, so this week’s total of 45.5 could be a discount. The Texans offense, led by Watson, has been producing at a high rate. As for Chicago, they scored 30 points last week and looked somewhat capable with Trubiksy (saying that lightly).
- Both teams’ offenses have been absolutely horrific without Prescott and Burrow. Along with this, Ezekiel Elliot could be limited or out completely as well. Dallas is averaging just 15.8 ppg over its last six contests and scored more than 19 points in just one of those games. While Cincinnati is putting up a paltry 10.8 ppg in their previous four games.
MORE BETS!
For some more of our best bets this week, make sure to check out the Spreading the Love podcast at the link below:
The best part is, you can bet for basically free as well! Thanks to our partners over at Pointsbet, you can get two risk free bets for up to $1500. That’s right, you can get TWO RISK-FREE BETS!!!! by signing up using the link below, courtesy of Spreadin’ the Love Podcast and PSN. Just click the link below and sign up, and you can place a risk-free same game parlay using our picks above (or fading them, if you don’t believe us).
Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire
