Liam and Ricky were back at it this week, and are ready to spread the love, some may say. There is a lot on the line in some crucial divisional matches in week 13, so we wanted to help you make as educated as picks as possible. Liam provided some flame and a deep stats dive, as Ricky provided his typical prop pick extravaganza.
We have each compiled our best bet of the week, and also have picks galore in this week’s latest podcast. As the NFL season begins to come to a close, make sure to subscribe to PSN Radio as we will be continuing to give you our best picks of the week.
Betting the Birds:
If you’re reading this, there’s more of a chance than not that you are an Eagles’ fan. Well if you have not learned your lesson on betting the Eagles yet this season, this is the week to stop. Despite their pointless backdoor cover last week, I’m not sure confident enough to bet on that happening again.
Liam and Ricky collectively agreed that the Eagles are due for a pointless win against a team they shouldn’t beat, but that probably won’t come this week as much as we hope it does. If you’re going to bet anything with the spread, it’s time to swallow your pride and take the Packers.
However, there is still money to be made this week. Green Bay has one of the league’s best offenses and averages a league-high 31.7 points per game (ppg). One huge contributor to that insanely high number is one man:
Davante Adams
Don’t be silly. Darius Slay is one of the best corners in the game, and chances are he won’t be able to stop Adams from getting into the end zone. Adams has found the end zone in six straight games (nine total TDs over that stretch) and he should have more success against the Eagles on Sunday. Make sure to take Adams anytime touchdown (-155) if you’re looking for a near-lock bet.
Another guy to look at could be Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who may be covered by Avonte Maddox. Valdes-Scantling could have some great value at an anytime touchdown (+230), as he is one of Aaron Rodgers’ favorite downfield targets. Per his NFL.com player bio, he has averaged 16.4 yards per catch since entering the league in 2018 which is good enough for number 6 in the NFL over that span among players with 60-plus receptions. I don’t think much of this changes with one of the worst PFF graded corners likely covering him this week.
Bets of the week:
Liam:
Washington Football Team +7 vs. Steelers
The undefeated Steelers are coming a very short week after defeating Baltimore Ravens on a rare Wednesday afternoon football game. The Steelers looked a bit weak in this one, only winning the game by five points against basically the Ravens backups.
There’s been heavy money on the Football Team, especially after the pubic watched Wednesdays game. This line has gone from -10 in favor of Pittsburgh all the way down to -7 in the matter of a couple of days.
The Washington Football Team has accumulated over 300 yards rushing the past two weeks, while also boasting a defensive unit that is ranked 5th in DVOA and has 36 sacks on the season. Pittsburgh may be the second least sacked team in the league, but rushing Big Ben could cause some problems. Alex Smith has also been manageable, while Steelers’ Bud Dupree and Devin Bush are both out this week. Expect Washington to keep this a close game into the fourth quarter, and possibly even take over the NFC East in weeks to come.
Ricky
A TOTALS TEASER: Texans/Colts (o44.5), Giants/Seahawks (u55.5), Browns/Titans (o46.5)
For those that do not know, a teaser is a type of parlay that allows a bettor to buy themself either 6, 6.5, or 7 points on each leg of the bet included. In this instance, Ricky is taking totals and adjusting them more in his favor. He is moving the Texans/Colts total down to 43.5, the Giants/Seahawks total up to 54.5, and Browns/Titans total to 46.5.
Since he is going over in the two games, those spreads will move down, while the spread in the Giants/Seahawks will go up to accommodate the under. The odds on this bet are +120 after all is set and done.
- The Colts have hit the Over in six of their last seven games and their defense has been giving up 28.1 points per game over that stretch while they’re scoring 28.4 ppg since October 4th. They are also averaging 31.6 points per game against bottom-10 DVOA defenses, like Houston’s.
- The Titans average over 30 points per home game this season, and are one of the best Over teams in the league. They’re 8-2-1 O/U record on the year. They’re 4-0-1 O/U following an ATS win, 7-0-1 O/U in their last eight against the AFC, and have hit the Under just once in their last 10 (per Covers.com).
- New York ranks 30th in the league in scoring with 19.5 ppg and is 5-1 to the Under in their last six games. Seattle has hit the under in four straight games, and have played down to opponents, going 4-0 to the under in their last four games against sub-.500 opponents.
More Bets!
For some more of our best bets this week, make sure to check out the Spreading the Love podcast at the link below:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/psn-radio/id1531387714?i=1000501383645
The best part is, you can bet for basically free as well! Thanks to our partners over at Pointsbet, you can get two risk free bets for up to $1500. That’s right, you can get TWO RISK-FREE BETS!!!! by signing up using the link below, courtesy of Spreadin’ the Love Podcast and PSN. Just click the link below and sign up, and you can place a risk-free same game parlay using our picks above (or fading them, if you don’t believe us).
Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire
