By now, we’re past Christmas in terms of bowl season, and heading toward 2018, which means my picks have undoubtedly gone up in flames already. If, by some miracles my picks have survived, you’ve come to the right place. I’ll continue to headlong expedition of breaking down and picking all 40 bowl games, of which we’ve already discussed the first 21 games to be played in chronological order. As you get ready for the final days of 2017, there are nine more games to be played. So let’s hit games number 22-30.
Thursday, December 28
Military Bowl
Navy vs. Virginia
After winning 14 consecutive times against their military counterparts, the Navy Midshipmen are very much in danger of losing consecutive games to Army. After winning five straight games to start the season, including handing FAU one of its two losses, the Midshipmen have lost five of their last six games. With the matchup with Army still remaining, Navy could fall six times in a season for the first time since 2008. The Midshipmen, much like their Army opponent this weekend, run the ball consistently. Quarterback Zach Abey leads the way in the rushing game with over 1300 yards and 14 touchdowns. The rushing attack as a whole has scored 34 times this season. Defensively, Navy has struggled in pass defense all season, having allowed the 86th most passing yards in the nation. That won’t be an issue this weekend against Army, who runs the triple option, but it may be a concern come bowl season, when the Midshipmen take on Virginia. The Cavaliers are led by quarterback Kurt Benkart. The East Carolina transfer has been much better in year two as the starter for Virginia, having tossed 25 touchdowns and over 3000 yards. This passing attack is spread out, as three different receivers have gone for over 600 yards and five scores. Despite achieving aerial effectiveness, the Cavaliers limp into the bowl schedule as losers of five of six. This is a Virginia team that beat Boise State earlier in the season, and could have success against a poor Navy pass defense. Despite losing far too often in the final two months of the season, This one comes down to clock management, and if the Midshipmen can control the football, I like their chances.
Navy 21-Virginia 20
Camping World Bowl
Oklahoma State vs. Virginia Tech
Here are two teams that I predicted to represent their respective conferences last weekend. Neither did. I picked Oklahoma State to win the Big 12 outright. I chose Virginia Tech to make its way to the ACC Championship Game before falling to Clemson, the clear cut best team in the conference. The Cowboys finished the season 9-3, but all three losses came within conference play, including losses to TCU and Oklahoma, costing them a Big 12 title game appearance. This team is a classic Big 12 squad with the ability to throw the football over the field at will. The best quarterback in college football according to Tyler Zulli is Mason Rudolph, who threw 35 touchdowns and 4553 yards this season, the most in college football. The offense features two 1000 yard receivers, who have caught 20 touchdowns. But the difference between this Cowboys teams and those of the past is that they are effective running the ball as well. The third highest scoring offense in the nation features a 1300 yard, 14 touchdown back in Justice Hill. He touched the ball 275 times in 2017. What is concerning about this Cowboys team is the 30 points per game they allow defensively. The defense has given up 30 points or more six times this year, including four weeks in a row of 40 or more allowed. Their opponent is the total opposite, as Virginia Tech features one of the most stalwart defenses in the nation, but struggles to score at times. The Hokies allow just 13.5 points per game, the fifth best in the country. Eight different times the defense has allowed 17 or less eight times. The Virginia Tech running game has struggled this year individually, but the sum of the whole might be greater than each part. The leading rusher, Travon McMillian, picked up just 439 yards this year. The offensive inconsistencies cost the Hokies a ten win regular season in falling three times to ACC opponents. The emergence of Miami was a defining factor of the ACC Coastal this season, but the VT offense hurt them at times as well. This could be one of the best bowl games of the season, and it isn’t even a New Year’s Six Bowl.
Oklahoma State 33-Virginia Tech 27
Alamo Bowl
Stanford vs. TCU
We go from two teams I expected to make their conference title games that did not to two that I didn’t believe would represent their conferences, but did. Stanford represented the North division of the Pac 12, beating out my choice of Washington State. They eventually fell to Pac 12 champs USC in a close game. The Stanford world revolves around the best statistical running back in the game, Bryce Love. (Slow down, Penn State fans, I was very careful in choosing the word statistical.) Love rushed for nearly 2000 yards this season and scored 17 touchdowns. While he’ll likely fall to Baker Mayfield in the final Heisman voting, he’s a worthy candidate this season. He is a none-factor in the Stanford passing game, however, as he has just 33 receiving yards to this point. The quarterback play has not been the same since Kevin Hogan graduated, and the Cardinal have turned to two signal callers this season. K.J. Costello has emerged as the starter late in the season, having tossed 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions this year. The sophomore has outplayed senior Keller Chryst, who has thrown four picks to eight touchdowns. The team scores 32 points per game, good for 34th this year. Three of Stanford’s four losses have come to USC and Washington State. The Horned Frogs finished second in the Big 12, but fell to Oklahoma, which is now the Big 12 representative in the playoff. TCU is somewhat of an anomaly in the Big 12, as it’s a team that doesn’t allow a ton of points to other conference opponents. The Horned Frogs have allowed just 17 points per game this season, and have held seven opponents to 14 points or less. What makes TCU’s defense stand out in this one is that it gets torched through the air, giving up nearly 3000 yards this season, but it is stout against the run. The Horned Frogs front seven has given up less than 1300 rushing yards this season, the fourth best in the country, and less than 100 yards a game. It may be tough sledding for Bryce Love in this one. He’s clearly the X-factor for both teams. I’ll take the man in his final bowl game at Stanford.
Stanford 24-TCU 20
Holiday Bowl
Michigan State vs. Washington State
For the second time in three games, we see one defensively stout team pitted against an offensive monster. The Spartans enter into this matchup at 9-3, but finished third in the powerful Big Ten East behind both Ohio State and Penn State. The team appeared to be clicking in a win over Penn State only to lose 48-3 to Ohio State the following week. The Spartans lone loss outside the Big Ten came to Notre Dame early in the season. Michigan State is the 23rd ranked scoring defense, allowing just 20 points per game. Seven times the defense allowed less than that. The defense is led by linebacker Joe Bachie, who’s recorded 93 tackles this season. Offensively, it’s been a bit of an up and down season for the Spartans, who average just 23 points per game, good for 99th in the nation. Brian Lewerke has been much improved in year two as the Spartan signal caller, throwing for 2580 yards and 17 touchdowns. The downturn on the Michigan State offense this year, surprisingly enough, has come in the running department. Leading rusher and future NFL back L.J. Scott rushed for just 788 yards and six touchdowns this season. While the run defense has been unbelievable this season, having given up just 1215 yards, it’ll be the secondary that is tested against Wazzu. Like the Spartans, the Cougars enter into this matchup at 9-3, and a bit of a question mark the entire season. Despite winning nine games, the Cougars threw in a complete clunker, a 37-3 loss to Cal. However, Washington State also defeated both PAC 12 title game representatives, USC and Stanford. Mike Leach’s offense fires nearly every week, scoring 32 points per game, which is nearly a full touchdown less than last season, a true testament to Leach’s offense each season. The offense is led by Luke Falk, who will be playing in his final collegiate game before entering the NFL Draft. Falk was seven yards shy of 3600 this season and added 30 touchdowns. He’s a bit of a gunslinger, having throw 13 picks this season, and 39 in his career. Those numbers could be a bit inflated, as Falk threw five interceptions in that lopsided loss to Cal. Take that out of the equation, and you have a quarterback throwing eight picks in 11 games. Michigan State allows nearly 200 yards per game through the air, and I think Falk takes advantage of that.
Washington State 35-Michigan State 28
Friday, December 29
Belk Bowl
Texas A&M vs. Wake Forest
Jeff Banks won’t be the head coach of Texas A&M long, but he’ll have a chance to finish the 2017 season undefeated. Following the Belk Bowl, new head coach Jimbo Fisher will take over the Aggies, but it will be Banks coaching one game this season first after the firing of Kevin Sumlin. The Aggies enter the Belk Bowl at 7-5, which wasn’t good enough to save Sumlin’s job. A poor conference record likely doomed Sumlin, who went just 4-4 in SEC play this season. After dropping the season opener in a thriller to UCLA, the Aggies won five of their next six before then dropping consecutive games. Freshman Nick Starkel took over under center halfway through the season and has been better than advertised. He’s thrown for just under 1300 yards and ten touchdowns after sitting six straight games due to injury midway through the season. The Aggies feature one of my favorite prospects for next year’s NFL Draft in wide receiver Christian Kirk. Despite inconsistencies at the quarterback position, Kirk hauled in 58 passes for 730 yards and seven scores. The Aggies struggled defensively, giving up nearly 29 points per game, including four games of 40 or more points. That could be an issue for a defense facing a Wake Forest offense that scores 32 points per game. After winning just six games from 2014-2015, the Demon Deacons have posted back-to-back seven wins seasons with a chance to win eight for the first time 2008. After winning its first four games, Wake dropped three in a row to ACC foes Florida State, Clemson and Georgia Tech. The Clemson loss is obviously excusable, but the losses to FSU and GT may not be. Those kind of losses are the difference between the Belk Bowl and a more meaningful bowl. Wake Forest quarterback John Wolford has been stellar this season, throwing for 25 touchdowns to just six interceptions. In a senior season in which he’s added ten rushing touchdowns, Wolford may have saved his best performance for last. I don’t know if it’ll be enough to get the quarterback drafted, but he’s making a case. Wake struggles in run defense, Wake gives up the 27th most passing yards per game at over 252 yards which could play into the hands of Texas A&M. This game comes down to if the Aggies can ground Wolford. My bet is they can’t.
Wake Forest 35-Texas A&M 27
Sun Bowl
Arizona State vs. NC State
Another bowl, another team that has introduced a new head coach going into 2018. Arizona State may have made the surprise hire of the offseason when the team announced that Herm Edwards would be taking over immediately after the bowl game. Edwards hasn’t coached since being fired by the Kansas City Chiefs following the 2008 season. For now, however, the Sun Devils have to look ahead to the NC State Wolfpack. ASU finished the season 7-5, placing in second behind USC in the Pac 12 South. If the last bowl game featured a favorite of mine, this one features an under-the-radar weapon that could be a sleeper in the NFL when his time comes. N’Keal Harry recorded 73 catches this season for 1000 yards flat and seven touchdowns. The sophomore has been extremely productive since joining the Sun Devils last season. He’s part of a Sun Devil offense that scores 32 points a game, good for 35th in the country. In the final four games of the year, Arizona State scored no less than 37 points on its way to a 3-1 record. They’ll go up against a Wolfpack defense that struggles against the pass, having given up nearly 3000 yards this season through the air. While the pass defense is suspect, the front seven of NC State has been sensational, allowing the 28th fewest yards on the ground. The front seven, of course, is led by future top ten NFL Draft pick and Nagurski Award winner Bradley Chubb. The end has recorded ten sacks in each of the last two seasons and has added 128 tackles, including 44 for loss. He’s a gifted pass rusher, but stops the run as well. The Wolfpack were interesting this season, as it appeared midway through they could be serious contenders to Clemson in the ACC Atlantic. After falling to South Carolina in week one, NC State rattled off six wins in a row, leaving us to wonder how real this team was. Consecutive losses to Notre Dame and Clemson dashed any hopes of Wolfpack faithful, but a win in the Sun Bowl would give NC State a program most since 2010. Travel is always a factor during bowl season, and the Wolfpack have a much longer trip than Arizona State does. I don’t know how much of a factor this will play, but I think it keeps the game closer than a true neutral site would. Still, I’m taking the Wolfpack.
NC State 27-Arizona State 17
Music City Bowl
Kentucky vs. Northwestern
It’s funny, but I actually predicted this Northwestern team to be pretty good. How good? Well, I did say in my preseason schedule rundown that the Wildcats would knock off Penn State for one of the Nittany Lions two loses. After starting the season 2-3, including lopsided losses to Penn State and Duke, I was less certain this team was who I thought they were. At the end of the year, however, I was proven correct when Northwestern rolled off seven straight wins to finish the season 9-3. Northwestern has given up less than 20 points per game this season, including allowing just 20 points in its final three games combined. The run stuffing defense allows the ninth fewest yards on the ground in the nation. The offense is paced by Clayton Thorson, who will be known as one of the best Northwestern quarterbacks to play the game when he’s done. While Thorson did throw 12 interceptions this season, only three of them have come in the last six games. Pair that with seven touchdowns through the air and five on the ground in that same time period, you have a much improved Northwestern Thorson. The running game goes through one lone back: Justin Jackson. Jackson has more touches himself (255) than the rest of the offense (226). Jackson ran for 1154 yards and nine touchdowns this season. These Big Ten Wildcats will take on an SEC opponent of the same name. The Kentucky Wildcats enter this matchup at 7-5, but losers of two straight. Four of the five Kentucky loses came to SEC foes. It’s tough to get a read on this team, as they defeated South Carolina but then turned around and lost to Florida the following week. This team isn’t known for it’s offensive prowess, scoring just 25 points per game, 84th in the country. Much like Northwestern, the bulk of the carries for Kentucky goes to one man, Benny Snell. The sophomore already has 32 touchdowns and 2400 yards in two seasons at Kentucky, and could become more dangerous in the years to come. The true matchup comes down to the Northwestern front seven versus Snell in this one. It’ll likely be a lower scoring affair, and a quick game at that, as both teams attempt to establish the run early and often. I like the Cats from the Big Ten.
Northwestern 27-Kentucky 17
Arizona Bowl
New Mexico State vs. Utah State
For the first time since 1960, New Mexico State is going bowling. And for the second game in a row, we see two teams square up repping the same mascot. This time it’s not the Wildcats, but the Aggies for both squads. The southern most Aggies enter bowl season at 6-6, but with no real staple wins to claim. NMSU has just one win against bowl eligible teams compared to four losses. Quarterback Tyler Rogers leads the way for the New Mexico State offense, having thrown for 3825 yards and 26 touchdowns. He’s teamed up with senior receiver Jaleel Scott 73 times for 1042 yards and eight touchdowns. The offense averages nearly five points more per game than they did a season ago, but also surrender 30 points a game. Seven different times this season, a game featuring New Mexico State has scored more than 60 points. On the other side of the field, the Utah State Aggies also enter into the contest at 6-6, and seemingly play few close games. In four of the Aggies six losses, the team was beaten by two touchdowns or more. In five of their six wins, the Aggies won by at least two touchdowns. Whether it’s a select grouping of games that Utah State decides to play in, or the competition parody has been that great this year, the Aggies have played an odd schedule. the offense has used two quarterbacks this season, but seemingly have given the reigns to Jordan Love as of late. In the last five games, Love has thrown six touchdowns to just two picks. Kent Myers began the year under center, but has thrown just six passes over the last four weeks. This is the obligatory, “The Aggies will win this game” game. It’s one that will likely draw very little interest from folks outside the two cities in which the teams play. We’re likely to either see a shootout or a defensive battle. I’ll take offensive ineptitude.
Utah State 20-New Mexico State 13
Cotton Bowl
USC vs. Ohio State
We go from the “Nobody’s going to watch bowl” to the “Everyone is going to watch bowl”. These two teams have handed Penn State two of its three most recent losses, as USC defeated the Nittany Lions in last season’s Rose Bowl, and the Buckeyes knocked off Penn State in Columbus this season. Both team finished the season 11-2 and conference winners. It’s two historic programs squaring off led by two big name quarterbacks. J.T. Barrett owns just about every quarterback record at Ohio State, and will look to finish his illustrious career with another bowl win. The Buckeyes score nearly 43 points a game, good for fifth in the nation. The running back tandem of Mike Weber and J.K. Dobbins is as electric as you’ll find in all of college football.The freshman Dobbins burst onto the collegiate scene in a big way, rushing for 1300 yards and seven touchdowns in his first season at Ohio State. The kid is going to very, very dangerous for years to come, parlaying his collegiate career into the NFL. I’m willing to make that statement right now despite the fact that his first NFL touch won’t come until 2020. We all know how this offense works, yet it’s nearly impossible to stop. JT Barrett has defenses on a swivel the entire game, and as long as he doesn’t make stupid mistakes as he’s prone to do every once in a while, the offense will get its share of points. Not to be outdone offensively, the Trojans score in bunches as well. The offense is led by Sam Darnold, who is likely playing his final collegiate game before entering the NFL Draft. Darnold threw for nearly 3800 yards and 26 touchdowns. But much like Ohio state, the Trojans also have a secret weapon at the running back position: Ronald Jones. Jones carried the ball 242 times for almost 1500 yards and 18 scores. While it;s unlikely the junior returns for his final season, he has to be considerd as a Heisman front runner for 2018 if he does decide to come back to USC. To me, the quarterbacks seemingly nullify each other, as do the two running backs, which means it’ll come down to which team makes more defensive plays. My bet is on the Buckeye defense. This is going to be the best game of the bowl season, including the College Football Playoff. Mark it down.
Ohio State 33-USC 30
With just ten games left to play, including the looming Penn State-Washington game, and the two playoff games, we’re nearly through this mission. We officially are 30 games down and just ten to go. Check back in for the fourth and final installment in the coming day to see which team I believe will hoist the trophy this season.
Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
