The Philadelphia Eagles may have the most complex quarterback situation in the NFL. The incumbent, Sam Bradford, struggled at the start of his season with the Eagles, but as the year strolled along, there was obvious improvement. This situation is so interesting because Bradford is set to become a free agent for the first time in his career, and the market for his services is expected to be competitive. The lack of talent in the upcoming QB free agent class will drastically drive up his price, perhaps farther than what the Eagles would like to pay for him. In the end, the question is simple. How much does Sam Bradford cost for the Eagles? Spotrac has Bradford valued at around $19 million, a number he may receive from the Eagles, nonetheless let’s investigate whether Bradford is truly worth that much.
According to Investopedia, opportunity cost is the “the benefits you could have received by taking an alternative action.” To accurately estimate just how much Bradford means to the Eagles, it is important to look at what the team is giving up to sign Bradford. Because we want to uncover the value of Bradford, we will look into the future and forecast the next couple of months if they decided not to resign him. Then on the contrary we will look at keeping Bradford and the costs of that move.
If Bradford walks
Although Kirk Cousins and Brock Osweiler may be the cream of the crop for free agent quarterbacks, they are almost certainly going to be retained by the Redskins and the Broncos, respectively. Former Chiefs backup Chase Daniel has a much better chances to slip from his former team’s grasps, providing our first alternative to giving Bradford a new contract.
Chase Daniel, undrafted in 2009, has bounced around the league a bit since he entered the NFL, but most recently he was backing up Alex Smith and playing under the current Eagles head coach, Doug Pederson. Around the league, there are those who believe the former Missouri quarterback has the tools to be a starter in the NFL. Daniel, in his last year as a backup, received $4.8 million, a bit under what the Eagles will pay Mark Sanchez in 2016 ($5.5 million), so it would not be shocking to see another QB competition this August. Let’s say the Eagles do in fact dip into Pederson’s former team and sign the journeyman quarterback Daniel. We will figure that he will sign for no more than $5 million annually. Before we even enter the draft we have two quarterbacks who would collectively earn $10.5 million. It is safe to say the best way to find a franchise quarterback is not through free agency but through the college ranks. If the Eagles were to give the job to either Sanchez or Daniel, they would be likely be stopgaps until the Eagles find their true potential long term starter in the upcoming draft.
The Eagles would be without a franchise quarterback so selecting a quarterback with their number 13 overall pick seems like the right way to go. No matter who that is, the salary, according to Spotrac, is expected to be slotted at $2.086 million for next year. At this point, next year we are expected to invest $12.386 in quarterbacks in 2016. Now who the Eagles give that money too is also important.
There are three college quarterbacks talented enough to be selected that high: California’s Jared Goff, Memphis’s Paxton Lynch, and North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz. It is also very likely that only one of these guys will be available by the time the Eagles can pick. Goff is probably the most pro ready, which is attractive to a team like the Eagles who want to win now, unfortunately though he will almost certainly go in the top five. Lynch could have the highest potential out of the three with his prototypical size and arm strength, and Wentz looks to be similar to Lynch in that they need some time to season. Because the NFL is such a quarterback league, let’s suppose Lynch is gobbled up in the top ten, perhaps before many expect him to be taken. That leaves Carson Wentz to join the Sanchez and Daniel as the Eagles quarterbacks going forward.
By this simulation, for a somewhat meager $12.386 million, we have two possible 2016 starters and a young quarterback with some considerable upside waiting for his opportunity to take the reins. Another positive is that the lack of money being directed to the quarterback position makes it quite easy to resign core guys like Lane Johnson, Fletcher Cox, and Bennie Logan, and also go out and find extra pieces in free agency.
If Bradford signs
Now let’s suppose that the Eagles decide to in fact extend Sam Bradford. As I mentioned earlier, he would cost the team about $19 million per season. If that is the true number, let’s compare Bradford to the quarterbacks in the league that recently signed long term deals along with their average annual salaries.
Career Numbers:
Sam Bradford: 60.1 COMP%, 78 TD, 52 INT, 81.0 Rating
Ryan Tannehill: ($19.25 million) 61.9 COMP%, 87 TD, 54 INT, 85.2 Rating
Colin Kaepernick: ($19 million) 59.9 COMP%, 56 TD, 26 INT, 88.4 Rating
Andy Dalton: ($16 million) 62.3 COMP%, 124 TD, 73 INT, 88.4 Rating
This list should illuminate the fact that the market for quarterbacks is vastly inflated. It is also safe to say that Tannehill and Kaepernick have not lived up to their massive cap hits. Dalton, on the other hand, appears to actually outplay his $16 million salary, which should give the Eagles some hope. Furthermore, after looking at the stats, it is evident that Bradford has comparable numbers, so maybe the value of “19 million” is not too unfathomable.
With the above information and analysis, we decide to risk it and sign Bradford to the $19 million average salary, hoping that he can develop a franchise quarterback. In this case, Mark Sanchez is most likely not going to return, saving the Eagles $3.5 million. The dominos to this Bradford extension continue to fall, with the Eagles having to sign a veteran backup, let’s say Matt Schaub, at a cheap $2 million. The Eagles would then most likely take a flier on a late round quarterback in the upcoming draft, costing around $370 thousand next year. The dust does not settle there though, the investment of $21.37 million into the quarterback position costs almost double ($8.984 million) the earlier scenario with Bradford going elsewhere. This means that some players that the Eagles wish to lock up to long term deals may find better deals with other teams simply because the Eagles do not have enough money to sufficiently pay them.
All the economics aside, the issue is whether Bradford is a franchise quarterback? And if he’s not, are one of the top three quarterbacks of that caliber? The answers? Well it seems too early to make that assessment and that is why this “opportunity cost” view of the situation is valuable. One, is Bradford worth the base salary $19 million? And two, is he worth losing the additional $9 million that the Eagles they could spend on other players? Some would say yes and others no, but in the end Jeffrey Lurie and Howie Roseman will make that decision. They can keep Bradford, sign the backup and draft a low level third, or they could save money, keep Sanchez, sign Daniel and hopefully snag one of the top three quarterbacks in the upcoming draft. The future will ultimately decide how much Bradford actually costs.
