The battle for first place in the National League East resumes on Sunday night as the Philadelphia Phillies (46-31) host the New York Mets (46-31) in game three of their three-game series.
The Phillies claimed victory in game one on Friday night by a commanding 10-2 final score. The Mets then responded Saturday night by hitting seven home runs against the Phillies in an 11-4 game.
The matchup
The final of three straight nationally broadcasted games between the Phillies and Mets will feature a southpaw showdown between Jesús Luzardo and David Peterson. Luzardo has struggled as of late for the Phillies, allowing a combined 24 runs in three of his last four outings. Pitch tipping might be in play for Luzardo, who had only allowed three earned runs twice before May 31 this season.
Though Luzardo missed the Mets in the Phillies’ first series against them in April, the Mets are a familiar foe for the former Miami Marlins pitcher. In eight career starts against the Mets, Luzardo owns a 3.02 ERA. Pete Alonso in particular has struggled against Luzardo, recording only two hits in 22 at bats. Starling Marte, Jeff McNeil, and Juan Soto have all found greater success against Luzardo, however, hitting a career .389 against him in 36 combined at bats.
Luzardo should take particular care in how he approaches Soto. After the Phillies kept Soto 0-for-2 on Friday night, the floodgates opened on Saturday as Soto went 4-for-5 with two solo home runs.
Two starts ago, David Peterson pitched a complete game shutout against the Washington Nationals. He followed up that outing with a quality start against the Atlanta Braves, allowing three runs over 7.0 innings of work. Overall on the season, Peterson owns a strong 2.60 ERA with 74 strikeouts in 86.2 innings. Peterson frequents two types of fastball, the sinker, and four-seamer, for a majority of his pitch selection. He also incorporates a slider and changeup low in the zone while peppering in the curveball across the plate.
Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos, two key contributors to the Phillies’ recent success, have strong track records against Peterson. Bohm owns a .375 lifetime average off Peterson including two home runs. Meanwhile, Castellanos owns a .385 average in 13 at bats.
Changing the lineup?
Rob Thomson has built himself a reputation for filling his lineup card with optimal lefty-righty deployments. With a left-hander on the mound, the expectation would be that right-handers such as Johan Rojas and Edmundo Sosa would work their way into the lineup.
The Phillies also want to work in Buddy Kennedy, who was recently called up from AAA Lehigh Valley. Friday, Thomson indicated that Kennedy would be getting reps in against left-handed pitchers.
“That may move Otto [Kemp] into the outfield and into left field, so he’s got work there,” said Thomson. “Buddy’s had a good year. He’s swinging about very well.”
If Otto Kemp gets time left field, that would mean someone needs to take a seat. Max Kepler gets a majority of the time in left field. As a left-handed bat, he might find himself taking a seat to the right-handed Kemp.
But Thomson may be breaking his rhythm in center field. Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas have split time in center field, with Marsh sitting against left-handed pitching. Over his last 15 games, however, Marsh has been red-hot, batting .366 with a .925 OPS.
“He’s locked in right now,” said Thomson. “Where we go Sunday with Peterson remains to be seen but he is having good at-bats against righties and lefties.”
What’s at stake for the Phillies?
On paper, this game is certainly one of value. A series victory against a rival like the Mets is always of value for the Phillies. Additionally, regaining first place in the NL East will give the Phillies an advantage in the coming weeks.
The true value in this game, however, lies in the season series. The Phillies and Mets will play each other 13 times this season. The magic number to secure a season series victory is therefore seven. With the Mets having swept the Phillies early on, a series victory in Philadelphia would get the Phillies closer to that magic number.
Should the Phillies lose against the Mets, the Mets would only need to win two more games to secure the season series and, therefore, the tiebreaker at the end of the season if it would be needed.
Regardless, the Phillies need to take this season one game at a time. That game being tonight against the Mets. Game three will begin at 7:10 p.m. and will air on ESPN.
Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images
