Braves vs Phillies: phanatical 4-leg same-game-parlay for Game 3 of NLDS

Phillies Bryce harper
Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Bryce Harper (3) hits a solo homer against the Atlanta Braves during the sixth inning of Game 1 of a baseball NL Division Series, Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)

We’ve all hopefully shaken off the disastrous Game 2 for the Philadelphia Phillies. With two games set for a Philadelphia homestand, the Atlanta Braves haven’t been shy about their travel plans.

The humble, working-class Phillies would have taken American Airlines.

Airline selection and red carpets aside, the stage is set in Philly. In a strategic twist, the Braves are declining to announce their starter, but AJ Smith-Shawver and Bryce Elder are two probable names. With an average age of 22.6, the pair has a combined 45 regular season starts in their careers.

I have a sneaking suspicion that whoever the Braves trot out onto the mound will be vulnerable to what should be an angry Phillies lineup. With that in mind, I have an SGP for this evening that I think… can’t miss? Whistle if you’re with me.

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Phillies vs Braves – 3-Leg SGP for NLDS Game 3

LEG 1 – Big Boi Kyle Schwarber

This one’s a vibe pick. One way or another, it sounds like Kyle Schwarber will draw a young right-hander. While Schwarber’s 2023 campaign’s been anything but conventional, he’s still working with a .849 OPS against RHP.

Thirty-two of his 47, or 68%, of his home runs have come against righties, and there’s nothing better than a lead-off homer in Philadelphia. Because I’m a coward, I’m shorting the long ball in favor of Schwarber to record at least 2+ bases.

Schwarber’s staring down the barrel of his most favorable matchup of the 2023 MLB postseason, and if he’s going to heat up, it has to happen tonight.

Phillies Kyle schwarber
Philadelphia Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber connects for a home run against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning of a baseball game Tuesday, June 13, 2023, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

Kyle Schwarber Total Bases: +2 | (+115 on DraftKings)

LEG 2 – Austin Riley – the Philly killer

This one’s a mixed bag. I had to add in a little dark magic from Austin Riley.

Riley and Phillies starter Aaron Nola have a fascinating history together. Across 51 at-bats, Riley hit .412 against the Phillies righty. Of hitters Nola’s faced 40+ times, only Pete Alonso (5 homers, .348 BA) has had close to the success of Riley.

Essentially, Riley’s the most destructive hitter Nola’s ever faced. Of all batters Nola’s drawn, Riley ranks first in hits (21) and home runs (5), while he’s second best in doubles (5) and third in RBIs (9). For all those reasons, I like Riley tonight.

Conversely, Nola’s going to get his strikeouts. I’ve mentioned this before, but Nola’s allowed 3+ earned runs 18 times this season but still managed to strike out at least six batters in 10 outings.

These men can eat without kicking each other out of the dining room. So here are two more legs, but don’t get full – I got one more.

Austin Riley Total Bases: +2 | (+115 on DraftKings) & Aaron Nola 5+ Strikeouts (-180 on DraftKings)

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LEG 3 – Baserunning, Bryce Harper, baserunning

Bryce Harper had a tough Monday night. Although he reached base safely twice, including a lead-off walk in the top of the 9th inning, his performance will forever be scarred by a baserunning error we don’t often see from the veteran.

Not unlike Schwarber, he’ll see a favorable matchup against some inexperienced right-handed pitching. Harper’s not one to go quietly into the night, so I expect big things from MV3 as the Phillies begin their homestand.

Bryce Harper Total Bases: +2 | (+125 on DraftKings)

Phillies vs braves
Philadelphia Phillies’ Bryce Harper rounds third as he heads home to score on a hit by Nick Castellanos against the Miami Marlins during the eighth inning of Game 1 in an NL wild-card baseball playoff series Tuesday, Oct. 3, 2023, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Chris Szagola)

One more thing…

Notably missing from my SGP is Matt Olson. For his career, Olson’s averaging 0.58 homers per game in Citizens Bank Park. My hesitation is that Nola has relatively handled him in the past, allowing a career .238 batting average against the MLB long ball leader. At least for tonight, he doesn’t make the parlay mania.

4-LEG SGP – FINAL

I don’t just do this for fun – this is research for my bets! I will ride the dragon with you on this 4-leg-same-game parlay that kicks out odds of +1200.

Not that you need another reason to watch tonight, but that’s $10 to win $120.

AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)