Braves vs Phillies: Betting preview & best bets for NLDS Game 3

Braves vs Phillies: Following a devasting collapse in Game 2, the NLDS is headed back to Philadelphia for a two-game bout.

The Atlanta Braves will hop on the next flight out of Hartsfield-Jackson and be greeted by all the glory of an away game at Citizens Bank Park.

Since the beginning of the 2022 postseason, the Philadelphia Phillies have gone 8-2 in home playoff games. Those two losses came in the World Series to the Houston Astros.

Well, Wednesday evening, the NLDS returns to Philadelphia, and you better believe it’ll be loud. With that in mind, can a young Braves pitcher overcome one of the rowdiest home-field crowds in baseball, and can you make a little money along the way? Let’s find out.

Braves vs Phillies game info

  • Location: Citizens Bank Park – Philadelphia, PA
  • Time: October 11rd, 5:07p EST
  • Channel: TBS

Braves vs. Phillies Betting Stats:

BOOKMONEYLINESPREADO/U RUNS
FANDUELBRAVES (-102), PHILLIES (-116)BRAVES -1.5 (+155)9.0
DRAFTKINGSBRAVES (+102), PHILLIES (-122)BRAVES -1.5 (+160)9.0

Braves vs Phillies: Pitching Matchup

A.J. Smith-Shawver (1-0, 4.26 ERA*) v. Aaron Nola (1-0, 0.00 ERA)

Aaron Nola was flawless in his Wildcard-clinching start against the Miami Marlins. Seven innings of scoreless baseball ultimately netted the Phillies a spot in the NLDS.

Well, Nola returns hoping for a repeat performance against a team he pitched more innings against in the regular season (18.0) than any other opponent. Through three starts, Nola tallied 10.9 SO/9 and a 3.50 ERA. Of course, in typical Nola fashion, he did not factor into the decision of any of those starts.

phillies
Philadelphia Phillies’ Aaron Nola pitches to a Miami Marlins batter during the first inning of Game 2 of an NL wild-card baseball playoff series Wednesday, Oct. 4, 2023, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

I’d take the over if his O/U strikeouts fall in the 5.5 range. He might not be perfect, but he strikes batters out. Nola’s given up 3+ earned runs 18 times this season but still managed to strike out at least six in 10 outings.

Nola’s bugaboo has been the long ball, and he’ll need to contend with Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna, who’ve combined for three homers off Nola in 2023. We saw what Riley can do in Game 2, and his career .412 batting average against the LSU product should make Philly fans wary.

*Regular season totals

Quick Hits – Braves vs Phillies

The Phillies need to stop the youth

The Braves haven’t officially announced their starter, but it could be the 20-year-old A.J. Smith Shawver. Young. Very young for a playoff game in Philadephia.

While he’s yet to face this Phillies lineup, he allowed seven home runs across six regular season starts.

With a hard-throwing, inexperienced righty on the mound, it is time for Kyle Schwarber to bound forth from his cacoon. While Schwarber’s logged a hit in each of his four postseason appearances, he’s recorded just one RBI and struck out in 39% of his plate appearances.

If he’s going to turn it around, it starts on Wednesday. I love him to record 2+ bases, but I’m feeling frisky. Schwarber to hit a home run will be the bet.

Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber reacts after hitting a run-scoring double against Miami Marlins pitcher Braxton Garrett during the third inning of Game 2 in an NL wild-card baseball playoff series, Wednesday, Oct. 4, 2023, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

I Riley don’t like this

I alluded to this, but the Braves third baseman, Riley, has been an absolute Nola killer.

Just over the last three seasons, Riley’s hitting .462 with eight extra-base hits, including three homers. This isn’t a small sample size. We’re talking about 40+ plate appearances.

While Nola’s struck him out in 31% of those PAs, it’ll be imperative that Riley doesn’t get hot. While I also like the big man to record 2+ bases, I think you’ll be able to draw a parallel line between the Braves’ success and Riley’s.

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Harper’s Folly

Game 2 of the NLDS ended on a baserunning error by the usually uber-intelligent Bryce Harper. It was a mistake that reportedly ended with Braves shortstop Orlando Arcia laughing in Harper’s face.

Harper’s already reached safely in six of his nine plate appearances against the Braves, and now, he will be angry. I said that Game 2 would be a JT Realmuto game, and it almost was, but Game 3 smells like a Harper revenge tour.

I’ll put money on Harper to record 2+ bases and 1+ RBI—a very tasty parlay with the kid from Vegas at the center of it.

Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies’ J.T. Realmuto, left, rounds the bases after hitting a home run against Miami Marlins pitcher David Robertson during the fourth inning of Game 2 in an NL wild-card baseball playoff series, Wednesday, Oct. 4, 2023, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

AP Photo/Matt Rourke