Phillies vs Padres: Best bets, TV schedule & betting preview for September 5th

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Phillies Bryce harper
Philadelphia Phillies’ Bryce Harper, right, reacts past Washington Nationals catcher Riley Adams after hitting a two-run home run during the fifth inning of the second baseball game in a doubleheader, Tuesday, Aug. 8, 2023, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

The Philadelphia Phillies survived an offensive onslaught against the Padres last night and cashed our bet on the OVER in the process. Can they keep the good times going and keep hopes of a series sweep alive?

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Phillies vs Padres info

Date: Tuesday, September 5th
Time: 9:40PM ET
Location: Petco Park, San Diego
TV channel: MLB TV

Phillies vs Padres Betting odds

Money line: Philadelphia Phillies (-105) | San Diego Padres (-115)
Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+154) | San Diego Padres +1.5 (-185)
Run total: Over/Under 9 (-110)

Pitching matchup

Michael Lorenzen (8-8, 3.73 ERA) vs Pedro Avila (0-2, 2.67 ERA)

After exploding onto the scene in Philadelphia by recording a no-hitter in his second ever appearance, Lorenzen has allowed exactly 8 hits in every start since, giving up 18 runs in the process. His ERA is 4.38 over his last 5 starts, and he’s given up at least one homer in each of his last 3 games. With the Padres offense heating up, there could be some upside on pitcher props this evening.

Across from Lorenzen is Pedro Avila. He doesn’t typically go deep into games which could mean this becomes a bullpen game for the Padres. He’s lost both of his starts after earning a spot in the rotation due to injuries sustained by players like Yu Darvish, giving up 11 runs across those matchups. This could be another game where the OVER comes into play as a result.

Philadelphia Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber connects for a home run against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning of a baseball game Tuesday, June 13, 2023, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

Phillies vs Padres Betting preview

From a Phillies perspective, they rank 7th in batting average this year, while the Padres rank 22nd offensively. However, San Diego is batting .265 over its last 3 games with the Phils batting .269. Both offenses have looked good as of late which could yield some scoring again today.

For me, the OVER is the play here. Avila pitched well in his most recent start but errors on the back-end cost him dearly. The Phillies offense put up 9 alone last night and have an easier matchup here, while, as aforementioned, Lorenzen has allowed home runs regularly and surrenders a lot of hits.

From a prop perspective, the earned runs allowed line for both pitchers is 2.5 I am backing the OVER on both of these because of the reasons above.

We backed Fernando Tatis Jr. to record over 1.5 hits last night. That didn’t cash, but he’s now recorded a hit in 9 of his last 10 games and 14 in his last 15. He homered last night and has another favorable matchup. I’ll back Tatis to homer again at +390.

As for the Phils, Trea Turner stayed hot last night. He has now recorded hits in each of his last 13 games and homered against the Padres in game 1. With 24 hits in his last 13 games, the best is still yet to come for a resurgent Turner, who is +450to score a home run on Tuesday.

Phillies world series
Philadelphia Phillies’ J.T. Realmuto, right, celebrates his solo homer with Philadelphia Phillies Bryce Harper during the 10th inning in Game 1 of baseball’s World Series between the Houston Astros and the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday, Oct. 28, 2022, in Houston. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

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AP Photo/Matt Slocum