Braves vs Phillies: Best prop bets and a trend that could make you some serious money

The Philadelphia Phillies were officially one of the hottest teams in baseball once again coming into this series. But in a true clash of titans, the head of the NL East Table drew first blood with a 4-2 win over the Phils last night. Can the Phillies find a way to get back into this series?

Braves vs Phillies info

Date: Wednesday, June 21st
Time: 6:40pm ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
TV channel: NBSP, MLB TV

Braves vs Phillies Betting odds

Money line: Philadelphia Phillies (-130) | Atlanta Braves (+110)
Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+150) | Atlanta Braves +1.5 (-175)
Run total: Over/Under 8.5 (-110)

Pitching matchup

Aaron Nola (6-4, 4.66 ERA) vs AJ Smith-Shawver (1-0, 2.03 ERA)

As has been the case with Aaron Nola for a while now, what we get is often a coin-flip between one of the best pitchers in baseball, and someone who could have a stinker at any given moment. The good news is that the 30-year-old has gone for 5 innings or more in all but one start this season. The bad news is that the Braves tagged him for a 7.35 ERA when they clashed earlier in the season.

However, Nola maintains a 3.51 ERA against the Braves in his career along with a 15-10 record. This should be a winnable matchup if the Phils’ Ace is on his A-game, but there is a wildcard to keep an eye on.

AJ Smith-Shawver was Atlanta’s 4th-ranked prospect prior to his Major League call-up. He tore the minors to shreds, pitching a 1.09 ERA in 33 minor league innings, striking out 45 hitters in that span. Since being called up, he’s pitched 5 innings on two occasions and gave up 6 hits and 3 runs against the Rockies in his most recent start.

While inexperienced, there is no doubting just how much potential this young arm has and it’s one the Phils will need to carefully navigate.

Phillies Aaron Nola — Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola delivers during the first inning of a baseball game against the Pittsburgh Pirates in Pittsburgh, Sunday, July 31, 2022. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

Braves vs Phillies Betting preview

The Phillies are now 7-3 in their last 10 games after last night’s defeat, but the loss was a significant one. The gap back to the braves now stands at 9 games and it’s a deficit the team has to cut into. The pitching duel between Suarez & Strider was everything it promised to be, but a late Braves breakout was the difference in game 1.

The key for the Phillies tonight will be taking advantage of their pitching matchup. Shawver is a young pitcher who has dominated the minors and looked very comfortable in the majors, although, this will be his first road start. The Phils have to tag him early and often.

A trend all bettors should note

A scary betting trend to note and one that fans should be all over is that Aaron Nola has allowed at least one home run in each of his last 11 games. In fact, he’s allowed one in 13 of his 15 appearances this season and now faces a Braves offense that leagues the lead in homers. There are numerous ways to play this, including picking a Braves player to hit the homer, or Nola’s run total (2.5)

Here are some of the best ways to back this trend to continue:

Ronald Acuna Jr to hit a home run +400: On a 3-game hitting streak, batting .327 and has 15 homers this season.

Matt Olson to hit a home run +275: Has hit 3 homers in his last 5 games

Michael Harris II to hit a home run +650: Only hit 6 home runs but riding a 5-game hitting streak and homered against the Rockies before facing the Phils.