Phillies vs Braves: This prop bet has some serious value

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Philadelphia Phillies’ Alec Bohm (28) and Darick Hall (24) celebrate with teammates after a baseball game against the New York Yankees Tuesday, April 4, 2023, in New York. The Phillies won 4-1. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

The Philadelphia Phillies dropped their series opener against the Braves in a disappointing fashion. The heroics from the postseason are long behind us but that doesn’t mean we can’t find value as bettors on a Phillies team that could explode at any moment.

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Phillies vs Braves info

Date: Friday, May 26th 
Time: 7:20 p.m. ET
Location: SunTrust Park, Atlanta
TV channel: MLB TV

Phillies vs Braves Betting odds

Money line: Philadelphia Phillies (+130) | Atlanta Braves (-150)
Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-145) | Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+125)
Run total: Over/Under 10 (-110)

Pitching matchup

Taijuan Walker (3-2, 5.79 ERA) vs Jared Shuster (1-2, 5.49 ERA)

The Phillies were unable to hold off the surging Atlanta Braves last night and will be hoping for some redemption today. Taijuan Walker will take to the mound looking to build on his most recent start which saw him go 5 innings without allowing a single run in a win over the Cubs.

However, the Braves will be a very different challenge. They rank 2nd in all of Baseball in Home Runs as well as slugging percentage. This is a high-octane offense led by Matt Olson and Ronald Acuna that can quickly compound a minor mistake into a big problem.

For the Braves, Jared Shuster will look to keep Bryce Harper and company quiet. He’s averaging close to 7 strikeouts per game and his line for tonight is 4.5. The Phils are giving up close to 9 strikeouts per contest. I like Shuster to record more than 4 strikeouts tonight at -115.

Phillies Kyle Schwarber
AATLANTA, GA – SEPTEMBER 18: Philadelphia Phillies left fielder Kyle Schwarber (12) during the MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves on September 18, 2022, at Truist Park in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by John Adams/Icon Sportswire)

Phillies vs Braves Betting pick

As far as batting/game props go, it’s hard not to look at the total. It’s massively inflated after last night’s 13-run game and while the pitching is hardly elite in this matchup, I think it could be stable enough to at least bring that total back down. The Over is actually 1-3 whenever Shuster starts and with a total this high, it could well bring some correlated value with his strikeouts.

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AP Photo/Frank Franklin II