RBC Heritage 2023: Top five deep-value betting picks who could shock the world

John Deere classic
HOUSTON, TX – NOVEMBER 12: Tyler Duncan (USA) watches his putt on 8 during Round 2 of the HP Enterprise Houston Open at the Memorial Park Golf Course on November 12, 2021 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire)

The Masters is now behind us and after an exciting weekend at Augusta, our attention now turns to Harbour Town for the 2023 RBC Heritage. With a stacked field, there are going to be plenty of opportunities for some wildcard results this weekend and this tournament rarely disappoints. Here are 5 deep-value plays worth considering.

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RBC Heritage: Best deep-value plays

Webb Simpson

To win: +11000
Top-5: +2200
Top-10: +900

He might be one of the most irritating Golfers in the world to back when he’s cold, but it’s always better to be early than late with Webb. He won the RBC Heritage in 2021 and has 3 top-10’s in his last four competitions here and his T7 at the Valspar finally showed some much-needed signs of encouragement.

Simpson has gained at least 2 strokes putting over his last 3 tournaments and this is a course that will really reward those clinical within 20 ft.

If he can build on that this week, there’s some GREAT value to be had on a potential top-10 finish.

Tyler Duncan

To win: +18000
Top-5: +3500
Top-10: +1200

If you’re looking for some salary relief in DFS formats or just want a lotto ticket, Tyler Duncan being +1200 for a top-10 is great value. He tends to ruin my weekend whenever I back him, but he’s a momentum golfer who has two 3rd places finishes this year and two top-30’s around this track.

I wouldn’t go lumping my mortgage on him, but Duncan could well be an underdog to make a Sunday surge if he can improve his current -0.59 ATG metric.

Brendan Todd

To win: +15000
Top-5: +2500
Top-10: +1000

There’s an argument to be made both for and against Brendan Todd here. The Elephant in the room is his average drive of 279 yards ranks near the bottom of the entire field, but driving distance matters very little around here. What does matter is tee-to-green and putting – areas Todd is gaining at least 0.36 shots per round.

Todd has two top-40 finishes around here as well as 3 consecutive cuts made. For a bargain bucket Golfer, he could well be one of the steals of the RBC Heritage.

Tom Hoge

To win: +8000
Top-5: +1400
Top-10: +650

I feel like there is only so many more times this man is going to break my heart before he breaks out. Hoge’s 3rd place at the Players was a flash of his potential and there may be no better approach player on tour right now.

With that said, he’s missed 3 of his last 5 cuts at the RBC Heritage and 2 of his last 4 overall this year. Backing Hoge is not for the fainthearted.

Justin Rose

To win: +6500
Top-5: +1200
Top-10: +550

Rose is rolling back the years and might well be the most well-rounded player on tour right now. He had a great week at Augusta and has actually had a very strong start to the year. He ranks 8th in the entire field tee-to-green and that’s enough for me to take a swing at 65/1.

RBC Heritage: Best betting odds

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RBC Heritage
AUSTIN, TX – MARCH 25: Shane Lowry lines up a birdie attempt on the 13th green during the PGA – World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play on March 25, 2022, at Austin County Club in Austin, TX. (Photo by David Buono/Icon Sportswire)

Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire