Arnold Palmer Invitational: PGA Tour betting preview & Predictions

After a slightly lighter field took to the Honda Classic last week, all the stars of the PGA Tour are back in action this weekend at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. As John Rahm looks to continue his run of dominance to start the 2023 season, can anyone keep pace?

Arnold Palmer Invitational: Field overview

John Rahm	+650
Rory McIlroy	+950
Scottie Scheffler	+1000
Xander Schauffele	+2000
Tony Finau	+2000
Patrick Cantlay	+2000
Max Homa	+2000
Colin Morikawa	+2000
Will Zalatoris	+2200
Viktor Hovland	+3000

Taking place at Bay Hill, the Arnold Palmer Invitational will see all of the best players in the world returning to action in Florida this week. While we often see underdogs shine on the PGA Tour, the Arnold Palmer Invitational has often seen favorites triumph. According to Andy Lack of Rick Run Good, the favorite has won the event in five of the last ten years, which bodes extremely well for the best golfer on the planet.

If you want to pivot from Rahm, Rory McIlroy has a phenomenal course history here, with an average finish of 9th. He’s also gained 0.99 shots on approach over those rounds and considering that this is another tree-lined course with relatively flat greens, Rory should thrive here once again. He won the event back in 2018 and hasn’t finished outside of the top 20 since.

Defending champ, Scottie Scheffler, comes into this event with some strong momentum having won at the WM Phoenix Open. It is worth noting that Scheffler thrives on Bermudagrass greens and if he can figure out the putter (currently -0.11 strokes gained) then he’ll be a real threat.

Max Homa’s 2023 season has been beyond impressive. He’s sustained the huge leap in growth we saw him take last year with a win and a trio of top 3s so far. He oh-so nearly won at the Genesis Invitational and he has four top-25 finishes here. Homa is red hot right now and there may be no better putter on tour.

Where to find value in the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Tommy Fleetwood

To win: +6000
Top-5: +1200
Top-10: +500

The Englishman has a fairly solid record here, punching in two top 10’s and two top 20’s over his last five starts. He also enjoyed a 20th place finish at the Genesis Invitational. Fleetwood excels around and on the greens and has upped his game this year. A win might be a little too much to ask, but there’s no reason he won’t be knocking on the door of a top 10.

Rickie Fowler

To win: +5000
Top-5: +1000
Top-10: +400

Rickie Fowler has reunited with Butch Harmon and the results are speaking volumes. Three top 20’s in a row is not a bad way to start the year for a previously struggling player and his approach play has improved significantly. He has fared relatively well at Bay Hill over the past decade, with several top 5’s and top 20’s to his name. With a new-found confidence, this could be the perfect spot for Rickie Fowler to climb back up that unforgiving mountain.

Tyrell Hatton

To win: +3000
Top-5: +650
Top-10: +300

Hatton’s 6th place at the WM Phoenix Open was a big statement. He’ll have been slightly disappointed with the 40th place finish that followed, but he’s been trending in the right direction. He’s gaining significantly off the tee this season and has a 1st & 2nd place finish here in the last 3 years. If you want a value play who could break out, this is very much a Tyrell Hatton playground.

Betting prediction for The Arnold Palmer Invitational

My head says Rory McIlroy, my heart says Max Homa. Both are great bets but I feel like Homa’s narrow defeat at a tournament he really wanted to win will spur him on around Bay Hill.