Marlins vs Phillies: Betting preview & predictions for Wednesday

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What a finish for the Phillies.

A bloop double from Bryce Harper, the disrespectful intentional walk of J.T. Realmuto, and the next thing we know, Jean Segura has won the game in style.

The bat flip heard ’round the world.

It would have been a fitting loss for Philadelphia – at home to the Marlins in a critical spot. Alas, the Phillies are destined for the playoffs.

Also, if you’re looking for any late-minute Phillies playoff gear, check out the Phillies Wives Save a Pet Online Auction running now through September 12th. It helps the pups, and there’s no shame in replacing that old Odúbel Herrera jersey.

Wildcard Watch

Wildcard watch took an exciting turn as well. The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets are now tied in the East. Just leave it to the Mets to let the Braves catch them in September. We’ve seen that before.

The Milwaukee Brewers also fell to the Colorado Rockies and now sit 3.0 GB, while the San Diego Padres pulled one out of their arse in the 9th, still tied with the Phils.

What a race with just a month left in the regular season. Back to gambling.

Phillies vs Marlins Pitching matchup Wednesday, September 7th

Trevor Rogers (4-10, 5.57 ERA) v. Bailey Falter (3-3, 4.08 ERA)

PHILLIES

I’ve been as hard on Falter as anyone, but I’ve been wrong. The young man has put together a nice stretch here.

Over his last four appearances, Falter owns a 2.59 ERA and 8.6 SO/9. That puts him in the Nick PivettaJulio Urías range and what would rank just outside of the top 20 in the MLB.

Phillies Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber
Philadelphia Phillies’ Bryce Harper (3) is congratulated by Kyle Schwarber, right, after Harper scored against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the third inning of a baseball game Wednesday, Aug. 31, 2022, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

What’s more, he’s gone at least 6.0 innings in his last four starts. That’s been a marked improvement from his first six starts in which he never reached further than 5+ innings.

This is all to say, Falter’s been eating up innings in a manner that would have been difficult to predict back in May.

MARLINS

Rogers, the former first-round pick, has struggled in 2022. The 2021 All-Star has seen his strikeouts almost cut in half from last year.

Against righties, through 329 plate appearances, Rogers has surrendered a .866 OPS. So I’ll stop vamping because we’re trying to keep the lights on.

Best Bets and Where to Find Them

I love the Phillies by -1.5 and over 7.5 runs.

I know I just puffed up Falter, but the combination of these two pitchers has 7.5 runs feeling a little too low.

The Phillies are also due. If this is a playoff team, they should be able to beat the Miami Marlins by two runs. You can parlay those together for +253 odds or $10 to win $25.37 on FanDuel.

Bonus Bets for the Cheeky Boys

Rhys Hoskins, Matt Vierling, Alec Bohm and Segura. Those are your winners tonight.

An unlikely bunch, but just look at this, including individual bets for context:

BETODDSWAGERPAYOUT
Rhys Hoskins to Hit a Home Run+370$10.00$37.00
Jean Segura to Record 1+ Hit-250$10.00$4.00
Matt Vierling to Record 1+ Hit-155$10.00$6.45
Alec Bohm to Record 1+ Hit-250$10.00$4.00
PARLAY TOTAL+1250$10.00$125.04

Hoskins feels like a no-brainer. He has three home runs against Rogers in 16 at-bats.

Vierling’s hitting .375, so the only variable is the possibility that he has the night off.

Bohm seems automatic, and Segura is riding high off his first walk-off knock since 2021. I will be investing in the above, so be on the lookout for updates via Twitter.

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AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin

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